Reds should spend money and try to win, not increase short-term profits

[seligstinks]

The Reds are dead last in the number of playoff games won in the 21st century (only two).

The Reds are probably the only team that has never signed a free agent with 9 BB-Reference WAR in the previous three seasons before the signing.

The Reds' AAA farm team hasn't had a winning record since 2011 (I guess many of the players who should be there are playing for the Reds- and many of the players who should be playing for the Reds are playing for other major league teams).

By trading prospects for players instead of spending for good free agents, the Reds lost Justin Turner, Didi Gregorus, Yonder Alonzo, Yasmani Grandal, and B. J. Ryan. The Reds also let Trevor Hoffman go in the expansion draft.

The Reds have been an underfunded organization at the major league level ever since Marge Schott lost control of the team, except for perhaps 2010-14 and 2018-19.

The Reds farm system has been bad ever since about 1987, with the exception of the 2002 to 2010 era (a fluke?).

If the Reds lose 102 games this year, it will break the record for most losses in a Reds season. 107 losses breaks this Reds' franchise record for worst winning percentage in a season; 109 losses would make the last 20 years winning percentage the worst of any consecutive 20 years in Reds' history. The Reds' five winning records in the last twenty years is already the fewest of any twenty consecutive years in Reds' history.

If the new Reds turn out to be a lot better players than the ones they traded, then all will be forgiven. However, circa 1982 and again circa 2015, the players they got back were mostly a lot worse than the ones they traded.

The Reds once put Votto on waivers, and would have traded Griffey Jr. if Phil Nevin hadn't vetoed the trade.

The Reds gave Bailey a long-term contract instead of Cueto and/or Chapman, despite the fact that Bailey had (and has) negative career Baseball Reference Wins Above Average, and despite the fact that Bailey's best full season ERA is higher (i.e. worse) than Cueto's career ERA.

To save only $1 million, the Reds traded Brandon Phillips.

The Yankees traded Chapman for Gleyber Torres; the Reds traded Chapman for players that I believe are all retired from professional baseball now.

From 1996 to 2018, the Reds only signed one free agent that had, in the previous season, positive Baseball Reference Wins Above Average and enough PA or IP to qualify for the batting or ERA title (and that one was 35 year old Joe Randa).

The Reds spent the least of all the teams on free agents from 2010 to 2019.

From the Reds top ten players by Baseball Reference WAR in 2020 and 2021, only Votto and India are left on the Reds' active roster.

The Reds should have kept Miley, Gray, Winker, and Suarez for the 2022 season, and if they weren't in playoff competition by late July, then- and only then- should they have started to trade off their players.

The Lindner and Castellini eras have been a disaster for Reds' fans. It seems most years the plan is to keep payroll and revenue low, and then collect the fat revenue-sharing check. The Reds need to increase winning percentage and long-term revenue, even if it means a drop- perhaps a big drop- in short-term profits. Don't rebuild the team, rebuild the Reds' fan base!

[PuffyPig]

The Reds farm system has been bad ever since about 1987, with the exception of the 2002 to 2010 era (a fluke?).

A 9 year fluke?


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[wally post]

This season is an all time low for me. I'm at the point where I can't watch the games for more than 1-3 innings. Seligstinks is right but the owners won't do that. So many in today's world are "Me first. You? Whatever."

[Tony Cloninger]

Start by not doing any nonsense that was talked about last night in the Game Thread about picking up Votto option. No point in dwelling in the past. Move on to this rebuild phase and hopefully they use that money to bring in a better bullpen.

[Lex2020]

It's insane how teams can just tank entire season(s) at a time, play the "small market" card, and expect to get rewarded. The luxury tax was supposed to reduce the advantages of large markets, but it will not unless their penalties go into the small market payrolls instead of the ownership's pockets. They've made it clear that they are not interested in a salary cap, they should at least have a minimum salary floor before they can receive any compensation from the large market luxury tax.

I still find it hard to believe that they're not doing something to deter this strategy even when it's grown large enough to change the entire landscape of the league. With the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs all in the same division and an extra wild card, the Cardinals and Brewers should be able to sleepwalk into post season.

I get so tired of hearing how the Cubs and Astros took their lumps with poor seasons while accumulating talent that paid off with world series wins. Now this is the blueprint for small markets to catch lighting in a bottle. They never mention that Chicago and Houston are the 3rd and 4th largest cities in the country. What is the definition of a small market? Anywhere that is not NY or LA? Are there actually 26 small market teams in MLB? Where can an average market be found?

I'm not that disenchanted with the prospect haul during the last trade activity. However, I will say that they had the most coveted pitcher on the market and Mahle wasn't far down the list behind Castillo so they had a tremendous advantage for getting some players in return that could excite the fan base. Hopefully they won't be sent out of town for prospects years down the road because the Reds continued lack of success has them once again sellers instead of buyers. In the meantime at least their future projections can give some reason for excitement while the product at the MLB level is mired in irrelevancy.

While it is true that markets like Cincinnati must make some hay with draft picks and prospects, to ask any organization to stock an entire active roster with no source but the farm system and expect it to compete for post season is unreasonable. True, they must be able to build a core from within, but they will also need to add some talent from outside of the organization then the time comes (if the time comes).

[Z-Fly]

The Reds do probably spend a higher percentage of intake coming in than most. They just don't spend it wisely. The way things are currently setup, they simply can't spend like the Dodgers. I know it's fun to spend others money, but no business is going to operate at a loss year in and year out.

As far as signing big name free agents that rarely works out, especially in the post juice era. I'm all for extending arbitration eligible players, but a big name free agent would have to be the final piece for a contender.

[REDREAD]

The Reds have had a unique combination of cheapness and incompetence ever since Marge was forced out, with a few exceptions.. the Walt era.. and 1999 if you count that as part of the post Marge era (I consider that team to be part of the Marge era, but it's debatable, so I will mention it).
I really admire the people that can still be optimistic after all the garbage that has happened the last 12 months.

The Astros and Cubs pulling off a successful tank to contention was probably the worst possible thing for baseball. It allows team like the Reds, Pirates, and this year's Cubs to sell the fans on that dream.

Then greedy MLB installs expanded playoffs, which gives them more TV money and also makes it easier for teams that are barely 500 to sneak into the playoffs. Which lowers the bar for a "Competitive" season and makes the post season a joke.

Sadly, nothing will change unless we get new ownership and/or MLB changes the revenue distribution to penalize tankers.
In a dream world, the national TV money would be distributed based on W-L percentage.. or at the bare minimum there would be a minimum payroll and/or minimum number of wins required for small market teams to get revenue sharing. Obviously, it will never happen, as the tanker owners would never vote themselves off Easy Street.

It's had for me to even care. I was at a sports bar last night with a friend, we used to both be Reds fans, the Field of Dreams game was on, we didn't even care. I think the score was 3-0 or 2-0 when we walked in, it was just safe to assume the game was lost.

[LeatherPants]

The Reds do probably spend a higher percentage of intake coming in than most. They just don't spend it wisely. The way things are currently setup, they simply can't spend like the Dodgers. I know it's fun to spend others money, but no business is going to operate at a loss year in and year out.

As far as signing big name free agents that rarely works out, especially in the post juice era. I'm all for extending arbitration eligible players, but a big name free agent would have to be the final piece for a contender.

They ain't coming close to operating at a loss.

[Falls City Beer]

No one--literally no one--is saying spend like the Dodgers. Can we put that canard to rest? Please? We are literally asking to not trade off flotillas of talent despite that talent being signed to very favorable contracts or making somewhat more due to arbitration. Good lord.

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They ain't coming close to operating at a loss.

They never have and they never will.

[CySeymour]

No one--literally no one--is saying spend like the Dodgers. Can we put that canard to rest? Please? We are literally asking to not trade off flotillas of talent despite that talent being signed to very favorable contracts or making somewhat more due to arbitration. Good lord.

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They never have and they never will.

Selling off big league talent for younger isn't totally the problem. It's probably a valid way of keeping the farm system stacked and providing assets to fill future big league roles or for real trade fodder. The Reds problem is they have no idea how to do a reload, or at least a partial rebuild. They just understand a tear down, which is what has led us to where the team is today.

[Marc D]

We will never have access to the exact numbers needed to see how much discretionary money they keep, and how much they reinvest. That said, we can do some quick back of the napkin analysis to point out one thing.

Let's say fixed revenue is ~$100MM before selling a ticket based on national and local media deals.

So that leaves stadium revenue as the only, significant, variable revenue stream (meaning what they can decide to invest in and get an immediate ROI).

GABP capacity is 42,000 for round numbers
Average attendance this year is 18,000 (again for round numbers)
So theoretically, you have 24,000 seats you can try to fill every home game that are currently going empty.

The average ticket price is ~$33
The average merch and food spend is another ~$172
That's a possible $205 x 24,000 empty seats
The MLB average attendance is ~28K,so in reality lets say they could build a winner and get that extra 10K in attendance for every home game
$205 x 10,000 = $2.05MM per home game
81 home games x $2.05MM per = $166MM

That's roughly the MLB average payroll ($170MM iirc)

So forget baseball for a minute and look at this as any business; I have an extra ~$160MM sitting out there to be grabbed if I can put a product out that will draw an additional 10K paying customers per game. I'm already getting enough fixed, dependable revenue from media rights and current attendance levels to run at a profit including a big league payroll north of $100MM (2021 was $131MM, 2022 is $106MM).

I wouldn't have to invest that much more to grab that extra gate money. Could a Soto type superstar at ~$45MM AAV draw your extra 10K a night? The bet seems worth taking if I could spend an extra 45 to make an extra 160. Hell, even if you are wrong you only need to draw ~2,700 additional fans per game at $205 rev per ticket to break even on your investment in a Soto/45M AAV kind of player.

Just one guys observations and guesses while working with incomplete information but that is how I would look at it if it were my business. How much investment additional investment (x) to get (Z) attendance over the average at (Y) per head?

[Falls City Beer]

Selling off big league talent for younger isn't totally the problem. It's probably a valid way of keeping the farm system stacked and providing assets to fill future big league roles or for real trade fodder. The Reds problem is they have no idea how to do a reload, or at least a partial rebuild. They just understand a tear down, which is what has led us to where the team is today.

Yes, of course, you selectively trade for younger talent. Again, that's a given. And yes, they don't know how to operate like Atlanta, Milwaukee, San Francisco, St. Louis, who tote solid, but not ridiculous, payrolls and reload continually. But they're going to have to learn. That's the point. Because reloading is precisely what they should have done with an 83 win team, not take the wrecking ball to the place.

[westofyou]

Short term profits are all ownership groups of NINETEEN entities care about

Look at this list - https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...am/7148208001/

Vanity investments are gross.

Tighten this group up, put responsibility in someone's pocket not their voting share ownership.

[backbencher]

Short term profits are all ownership groups of NINETEEN entities care about

Look at this list - https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...am/7148208001/

Vanity investments are gross.

Tighten this group up, put responsibility in someone's pocket not their voting share ownership.

Small difference, but I expect loss avoidance is the motivator, not profit.

The Browns need surplus on the Bengals because that is their sole business. The Reds consortium all have other businesses. For this investment, they just want to avoid capital calls.

[westofyou]

Small difference, but I expect loss avoidance is the motivator, not profit.

The Browns need surplus on the Bengals because that is their sole business. The Reds consortium all have other businesses. For this investment, they just want to avoid capital calls.

The majority are real estate developers too, bet they all had a spoon in the Banks project and any other GAB area related property. It's all integrated and has more to do with their portfolios than their love of a local institution