Extensions?

[Benihana]

I said on another thread that I hope the Reds are now done trading core players. Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson are not only the “core” of this team at this point but, unlike our trio of rookie pitchers, will be heading into their third and final non-arb seasons next year.

The Reds have obviously shed a ton of payroll, and have virtually nothing on the books beyond next year when Votto and Moustakas roll off.

While both India and Stephenson have struggled to stay healthy in their sophomore seasons, they have shown that their breakout rookie performances were real. They both play up-the-middle premium positions (although a future move to a corner spot for either hasn’t been ruled out) and they’ve both shown themselves to be high character guys at least so far.

So how about, both as a smart baseball move but also a goodwill olive branch to fans, trying to lock those two up for the long haul? Now would be a good time to do it in order to offer them financial security for life while their arb years are still hanging out there. We could offer, what, 7 year $100M deals, plus or minus, to both of them to see if they bite? Would that be too much or too little? I’m thinking (ironically) conceptually something similar to a 2022 equivalent of the Suarez extension. Except maybe think outside the box and actually front load them for 2023 when we’re not spending a lot and not trying to contend so it opens up some payflex for the 24-27 window that is clearly being targeted now. With Votto sailing off into the sunset, give fans some piece of mind in knowing a jersey they can buy their kids without worrying they’ll be playing for the Mariners or Twins in a year or two. And I only say that because they’re potentially smart baseball moves too. Thoughts?

[redsfan9988]

I have questions…

Do we need India in the long-term with our glut of middle infield prospects? Can Stephenson stick at C? If not, will his bat play at 1B? I mean, I’m all for it at the right price. But if we’re pivoting to a Rays/A’s-type overall strategy, it might make more sense to squeeze 3-5 years of value out of these guys and flip them to keep the minors pipeline flowing. Obviously, a lot depends on how these two (and the team) perform over the next two years. I will say that I’m not in the business of extending them in the next 18 months or so. Winter of 2024? Maybe, if it’s appropriate to do so.

[kaldaniels]

Knee jerk - 100 MM actually seems a bit much.

Tyler hasn’t really put a huge season together yet (future position seems TBD as well) and India isn’t having a great year.

Tack on 2 years post arb for a total around 80 M seems fair for each.

[redsfan9988]

Knee jerk - 100 MM actually seems a bit much.

Tyler hasn’t really put a huge season together yet (future position seems TBD as well) and India isn’t having a great year.

Tack on 2 years post arb for a total around 80 M seems fair for each.

I agree - but they won’t sign those deals, and that why we have to wait. Neither is a Wander/Tatis-type can’t-miss guy, but both are capable of exceeding their prospect pedigree. Delaying free agency until their age-31 seasons needs to come with a hefty price tag if I’m their agents.

[Kinsm]

Pass. Ask the question again in 14 months when they are both on the cusp of their first arbitration.

[kaldaniels]

JP Crawford just signed 5 yr 51 million.

Now I’m feeling like I’m too generous with 6 yr 80 M.

[Slyder]

With all the Middle Infielder/SS prospects I see India/Moustakas for "Pile O Cash"/scrubs to get that money off the books a year early.

[redsfan9988]

With all the Middle Infielder/SS prospects I see India/Moustakas for "Pile O Cash"/scrubs to get that money off the books a year early.

They’re eating Moose’s money. The opportunity to add him to a Mahle/Drury deal has come and gone. They’re no longer in the payroll weeds. Moose and Votto are gone after 2023 and they’ll have money to spend. Will they spend it wisely? Will they spend it at all? Those are topics for another thread. But taking a haircut on an India deal to get Mosse off the books won’t happen.

[OldFashionedRed]

They’re eating Moose’s money. The opportunity to add him to a Mahle/Drury deal has come and gone. They’re no longer in the payroll weeds. Moose and Votto are gone after 2023 and they’ll have money to spend. Will they spend it wisely? Will they spend it at all? Those are topics for another thread. But taking a haircut on an India deal to get Mosse off the books won’t happen.

I took think we won't see Votto after 2023, but I'm curious what others think he'll do? Retire? Try and get traded to a winner?

[redsfan9988]

I took think we won't see Votto after 2023, but I'm curious what others think he'll do? Retire? Try and get traded to a winner?

I think a lot of that depends on what he does in 2023. If he can still draw walks and pop an occasional homer, the NL DH might make him a viable option for a contender. I hope he signs somewhere (other than STL) and wins a title.

[corkedbat]

India and Stephenson are the only guys I'd even think of extending and not until the '23-24 offseason. As other's have said though there is now a glut of MI's. If India boost's his value again, I'd be tempted to shape a deal around him to fill at least two of a starting catcher, starting corner OF &/or top 3 rotation guy.

[herbdizzle]

I'd offer each 6/60.

[Rojo Rijo]

I agree - but they won’t sign those deals, and that why we have to wait. Neither is a Wander/Tatis-type can’t-miss guy, but both are capable of exceeding their prospect pedigree. Delaying free agency until their age-31 seasons needs to come with a hefty price tag if I’m their agents.

This is the typical immediate thought with most good players but some might prefer the comfort of guaranteeing themselves $80-100 million as opposed to betting on themselves, their performance, their health etc.

[Benihana]

This is the typical immediate thought with most good players but some might prefer the comfort of guaranteeing themselves $80-100 million as opposed to betting on themselves, their performance, their health etc.

By the way if it was my kid, I'd advise him to take the guaranteed 80-100 every time.

Not only are there plenty of Miguel Andujars and Nick Senzels out there, but the marginal difference in quality of life between someone who has made $100M and someone who will make $200M or $300M is essentially nothing. But the marginal difference in quality of life between someone who has made $100M vs. $5M is, well, rather large.

[Benihana]

India and Stephenson are the only guys I'd even think of extending and not until the '23-24 offseason. As other's have said though there is now a glut of MI's. If India boost's his value again, I'd be tempted to shape a deal around him to fill at least two of a starting catcher, starting corner OF &/or top 3 rotation guy.

Teams very rarely trade an All Star player for another All Star player at another position in the same general age range. More often than not, it is a player-for-prospects trade, and at this point the Reds need to be done trading players like India and Stephenson for prospects and kicking the "window" farther out into the future. The Reds must be contending by 2024 or the entire organization is at risk. Keep India and Stephenson and build around them, you know they can play and represent the community well, and they are both only 25 years old (ie just two years older than McLain). I'm as high on Elly and Noelvi as anyone, and there is still plenty of room for them in the lineup with India remaining a Red. As far as the others, you don't know if they'll be fixtures or not, it's probably less than 50% that any of the other prospects will ever be as good as India or Stephenson at the big league level. Don't jettison the bird in the hand for a less than 50/50 shot.

Also, unless either one of them falls of a cliff which seems unlikely, the kind of contract I am suggesting doesn't make them immovable at all. If you front loaded a 7/80 contract by paying them $20M each in 2023 when the rest of our payroll is exceptionally low, it would pay them $10M a year for their age 27-32 seasons. That would, in fact, be an incredibly favorable contract to move if you needed to- and it would allow the Reds the pay flex to add other key pieces during their window of contention.