Thoughts on win totals for years 2023-2025?

[Kc61]

I’m optimistic Reds will build up to .500 fairly quickly, within the 2023-25 period. Fans are restless, the team is terrible, the situation reflects poorly on ownership/FO. They seem to react to that kind of thing.

But I don’t see any reason to expect Reds to go beyond that. To become a true contender. A non-huge market that contends without huge spending, like Cards or Braves.

They just don’t ever seem to want to take the extra step. They haven’t for years (e.g., Ryan Ludwick injury). There is no plan they can concoct that will get them to true contention without a major effort once the team is in the running.

[757690]

If the Reds thought they could contend next year, Castillo and Mahle wouldn't be playing for other teams.

They both would be in their final years of arbitration. That usually means around 80% of what they would make on the free agent market. Given how successful they were this season, that would mean around $20M combined for 2023.

They Reds received a few players in the Castillo and Mahle trades who should contribute in 2023. That combined with the $20M saved could translate into similar overall production for the Reds in 2023.

And Mahle’s current injury emphasizes the risk of keeping starting pitchers around too long.

[Mitri]

Contending next yr is not expected, hence those trades but I do think they can be a .500 team yr. Not predicting it, but it's possible

At this point, it’s expected. Their generational prospect has arrived. They have two good positional players who’ll be in year 3 and three solid young rotation anchors in year 2 and a young closer. They have stripped payroll down to basically Votto and Moose.

I’m not sure what else you’re waiting for. Time to start spending.

[Powel Crosley]

They both would be in their final years of arbitration. That usually means around 80% of what they would make on the free agent market. Given how successful they were this season, that would mean around $20M combined for 2023.

They Reds received a few players in the Castillo and Mahle trades who should contribute in 2023. That combined with the $20M saved could translate into similar overall production for the Reds in 2023.

And Mahle’s current injury emphasizes the risk of keeping starting pitchers around too long.

Agree with that, plus you might as well trade them now to get a maximum return if you know they aren't being signed long term. I certainly think 2023 will be a treading water kind of year rather than going for it, but trading Castillo and Mahle doesn't mean 2023 is a continued tank. Who else is there to get rid of with a high salary that a team would actually want?

[LeatherPants]

Agree with that, plus you might as well trade them now to get a maximum return if you know they aren't being signed long term. I certainly think 2023 will be a treading water kind of year rather than going for it, but trading Castillo and Mahle doesn't mean 2023 is a continued tank. Who else is there to get rid of with a high salary that a team would actually want?

Of course trading Castillo and Mahle means that 2023 is a continued tank, unless they replace their production, and not just replace it, but add to it.

Reds currently have two healthy starters that should be in the rotation. Hopefully Greene soon joins them. You have to have 8-9 starters to get through a season. That's a lot just to even get to .500.


Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft have a combined 243.3 major league innings between them. They just aren't ready to be relied on as the backbone of a rotation yet.

[mth123]

This team will go nowhere next season unless they spend about $45MM in free agency. Which is really on the low end of what they should spend.

They realistically need 2 better than average starting pitchers, 2 starting caliber OF (at least one of whom needs to be a significant offensive force) 3 relievers capable of pitching in close games in the late innings and a back-up catcher who isn't a minor leaguer. If they do those things they can contend, but that still may just put them at around .500 based on all the questions in the rest of the roster.

Its not just the holes that need filled, but what this team supposedly has in place has a ton of question marks. Injuries to Votto, India and Stephenson make all three questionable. Lodolo is looking pretty good to me, but this is the second year in a row he's missed a significant chunk of time with back issues, hopefully he can hold up for an entire year. Greene still looks like a reliever to me who relies on guys chasing a breaking pitch he can't get over the plate most of the time and a fastball that needs other pitches to keep hitters honest to work. Hopefully he adds a pitch that he can throw over the plate consistently that also adds deception. I do think Ashcraft looks like a solid mid-to-back-end starter. Diaz looks good but it's still a small sample size, so we give him the job and cross our fingers.

After those guys, everybody else is a huge question mark.

[LeatherPants]

If getting to .500 was so easy the Reds probably would have done it more than the 5 times they have since the start of the 2001 season.

[TRF]

96 wins.

every year, 96.

[WrongVerb]

There's zero chance he'd take an offer with a team option. At last report, there were like 10 teams interested in him once he's cleared to play. He might take a one year deal for next year to reestablish his value, but he won't tie himself down with a team option for 2024.

Sorry. I should have specified the Reds would hold an option after THIS season if they signed him today. I'd be fine making it a one-year deal to re-establish in 2023.

[LeatherPants]

Sorry. I should have specified the Reds would hold an option after THIS season if they signed him today. I'd be fine making it a one-year deal to re-establish in 2023.

Ah cool, that makes more sense.

[Roy Tucker]

96 wins.

every year, 96.

I used to think like this. But something I learned from planning projects is that things will always go worse than you think. *Always*.

Even in 2012 when the Reds had a stable rotation and 5 Reds pitchers started 161 of 162 games, the baseball gods smote Johnny Cueto in game 1 of the NLDS and screwed up the year the Reds were supposed to win it all. So I’ve stopped going with the best case or even the expected case. I plan on the worst case and that add more badness and usually that is what happens.

So unless there is a sea change in the front office and how they budget and plan, I see the Reds struggling to win more than 70 games likely.

[TRF]

I used to think like this. But something I learned from planning projects is that things will always go worse than you think. *Always*.

Even in 2012 when the Reds had a stable rotation and 5 Reds pitchers started 161 of 162 games, the baseball gods smote Johnny Cueto in game 1 of the NLDS and screwed up the year the Reds were supposed to win it all. So I’ve stopped going with the best case or even the expected case. I plan on the worst case and that add more badness and usually that is what happens.

So unless there is a sea change in the front office and how they budget and plan, I see the Reds struggling to win more than 70 games likely.

I spend evenings watching the Reds in a fetal position.


DON'T TAKE THIS FROM ME!


96 wins.

[Strikes Out Looking]

They'll win 70 in 2023, 81 in 2024 and then 75 in 2025 as the next rebuild will begin in June/July of 2025 leaving the Reds with 6 former shortstops, no starting pitchers (Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft, if still healthy, will be deemed to to expensive and at the top of their market value - dealt for A and AA players), and of course, to keep its streak alive, no bullpen.

[Revering4Blue]

If getting to .500 was so easy the Reds probably would have done it more than the 5 times they have since the start of the 2001 season.

Other than the 5 times that you mentioned, how many times have they actually tried since 2001?

2002
2006
2007 - All with flawed teams and relatively weak divisions.

2011
2014 and 2015 (Again, with flawed teams)
2019

No, it’s not exceedingly difficult to reach .500, even with a modest payroll, this franchise has rarely tried in twenty years or so. Not that .500 should be the goal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bourgeois Zee]

In order to compete for pennants, teams typically have:

The Big Bopper
What's that? One 130+ wRC+ bat in the middle of the order
Who's the Reds' guy? Tyler Stephenson
Does That Work? Maybe. He'll have to stay healthy and perhaps switch positions for at least part of the time. If Elly De La Cruz continues to mash, maybe he's this guy, with Stephenson moving to the Robin spot.

The Robins
What's that? Two 120+ wRC+ bats around The Big Bopper
Who's that in Cincinnati? Jonathan India...?, Jake Fraley...?
Does that work? Nope. They'll definitely need a free agent hitter. Maybe two. Probably two.

The Full TLC
What's that? The rest of the offensive starters have to be within 10 percentage points of league average (No scrubs) OR another 120+ wRC+ bopper
Who dis? For 2023? I'm guessing Votto, Barrero, Steer, Fraley, Senzel/ Friedl to start, with EDLC, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Matt McLain as the summer wanes.
We got that? Nope. Not yet. Not close. Cavernous hole at DH, smaller questions at 1B and backup C. Massive questions in CF and at SS that may be answered by the end of the season or in Spring Training with prospects.

The Big Three
What's that? Three healthy pitchers who have ERA+ at least 10% better than league average
In Cincinnati? Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft
We good? Ummm... Maybe? Lodolo looks the part. Ashcraft's intriguing, and Greene has all the talent, but questions abound. I'd feel better if they had a true one in front, but those are expensive.

The Innings Eater
What's that? One additional starter (or starter's spot) within 10% of league average-- and providing all-important innings
Who's that? Connor Overton, I guess?
We good? Probably not great. If the need is innings, trusting a guy who's had back surgery might not be optimal. Need some help here, either through the minors (Brandon Williamson, Levi Stoudt) or free agency.

The Nasties
What's that? At least two bullpenners who provide north of 120 IP between them and are well above league average/ dominant
And that is...? Tejay Antone and Alexis Diaz
We good? If healthy? Surprisingly so. Both have shown dominance. Can they withstand a full season?

The Nearly Nasties
What's that? Three more bullpen spots that are league average or better
Who are those guys? Nominally, Tony Santillan, Jeff Hoffman, and... Lucas Sims?
Good plan? Probably not. Likely need at least one more guy here, but maybe Joe Boyle, Levi Stoudt, or Justin Dunn can be that guy.

From where I sit, if the Reds want to compete in 2023, they'll need to shop for:
- One big-time free agent bat (Judge, Conforto, Nimmo, Benintendi, Haniger, maybe Gallo, Myers)-- and maybe two.
- A non-zero backup catcher to improve that position to TLC level
- At least one SP
- At least one RP

They definitely have the cash to do it. Even if they stay within the constraints of previous payrolls, Cincinnati has about $70M to spend.

More likely, as has been said by others, they'll continue to be penurious, play prospects a bit too early at the major league level, and wait for 2024.

By 2024, I'm guessing the offense will be more than acceptable. I think SS/3B/OF Elly De La Cruz and 1B/3B/DH Christian Encarnacion-Strand are 120+ wRC+ bats. (And perhaps more. Perhaps lots more.) Stephenson will have to continue to hit well-- that's doable. That would mean 2B/3B India, 2B/SS/CF McLain, CF Siani/ Friedl/ Senzel, OF Fraley, IF Steer, likely 1B/DH Votto, and a couple of others are going to have to just not suck. If Krall finds the right free agents (and signs/ keeps them for more than one season), the offense could well be among the better in the league.

The relief arms, I like to be a team strength. Diaz and Antone are, IMO, really undervalued (if healthy). I think Stoudt and Boyle are likely to join them in the back of a pen that has all sorts of filthy arms it can throw at opposing hitters. I think Dunn, Santillan, and Abbott could well be solid to well above average as well.

The starting staff, IMO, looks like it might need some free agent assistance. Fortunately, the Cincinnati front office should be able to supply that, as none of these guys will be close to breaking the bank.