2023 MiLB Rotations

[Reds Freak]

There's been a lot of discussion lately about all the position player talent in the system currently, but I thought I'd take a way-too-early guess at what the 2023 farm rotations might look like. Any thoughts? I didn't double-check my work so I might be missing someone and I pulled names out of a hat for the Tortugas. I also only used guys currently in the system, I'm sure there will be some MiLB FAs that will take up a spot or two at Louisville.

Louisville
Brandon Williamson
Levi Stoudt
Andrew Abbott
Eduardo Salazar
Carson Spiers

Chattanooga
Connor Phillips
Christian Roa
Chase Petty
Javier Rivera
Joe Boyle

Dayton
Jose Acuna
Julian Aguiar
Tanner Cooper
Sam Benschoter
Thomas Farr

Daytona
Bryce Hubbart
Kenya Huggins
Jose Franco
Ben Brutti
Rob Hensey

[Bourgeois Zee]

Like your focus here.

I suspect at least Williamson will be on the Opening Day Cincinnati roster-- and maybe Stoudt too (as a bullpenner). That may mean Boyle gets the bump up to AAA to start the season. More likely, the Reds grab another Ben Lively as AAAA depth. (Speaking of, Brandon Bailey-- should he finally be ready-- might be that guy. They've kept him around despite nearly two years of missed games for a reason.)

[Bourgeois Zee]

With the news of Christian Roa and Sam Benschoter pitching in the Arizona Fall League, I suspect we can assume the Reds' 2023 plans have been foreshadowed a bit.

I'm guessing that Roa, should he continue to pitch well, is being looked at either as a relief option himself or as a member of the Louisville Bats' starting rotation. That would seem to leave at least one member of that staff as either the odd man out or perhaps as a relief option for the Reds. I'm guessing it comes down to one of four prospects:

Both Levi Stoudt and Andrew Abbott have stuff that will likely play up as relievers, and neither is currently setting the world on fire as a starter.

Levi Stoudt is nearly 25 already. The Lehigh alum and former Seattle Mariner prospect has top-of-the-line stuff, with this 60 grades on both his near 100 mph fastball and his deceptive changeup:

Stoudt has been described by one scout as an “incredibly stuffy guy,” with a fastball that has touched 98-99 mph frequently and that has a ton of ride up in the zone. The changeup is the pitch that had really excited the Mariners, particularly with its depth and fade, as well as his ability to land it for strikes. His slider can flash plus and he also has a solid curveball.

The Reds likely have Alexis Diaz, Tony Santillan, Tejay Antone, and perhaps one or two veterans penciled in as Opening Day options. They need more back-of-the-pen options, and Stoudt could absolutely be that guy. In his other possible role-- that of would-be fourth or fifth starter-- Stoudt profiles as a BOR guy capable of providing league average innings. That undeniably has value. But the Reds may see that premium stuff and consider turning him into a weapon in the pen.

If not Stoudt, they may well turn to 2021 draftee Andrew Abbott. Abbott is still young (both in terms of development and age), but Cincinnati has a real need for LH options in the bullpen. As of right now, the only southpaw who profiles to be a part of the 2023 bullpen is Reiver Sanmartin. Abbott also has experience as a reliever, having been the Virginia closer for three years before transitioning to a starting role as a senior. He's also got a deceptive delivery and a great curve. Both of those tend to play up in the pen, as might his mid-90's fastball. (Which only tends to show up in short spurts.)

That said, I'm guessing the rose-colored glasses/ optimistic Red brass plan is for Brandon Williamson to become a swing starter and relief option on Opening Day. He's another LH. To say his season has been a struggle would be pretty accurate. He's been serviceable, at best, in both AA and AAA. The main issue is his lack of control. This wouldn't be as much of an issue in short stints as a relief arm. Too, his stuff could (once again) play up. Williamson is also an older prospect-- and best friends with Nick Lodolo. A clever GM would make getting Williamson up to the majors a pretty attractive carrot in signing Lodolo to a team-friendly LTC that knocks out a free agent season or two.

That would leave Christian Roa as the fifth starter in Louisville. Which would, in turn, open up his spot in the AA rotation. (That AA rotation, btw, has some seriously intriguing arms in it.) The fifth spot might be manned by Lyon Richardson, who's returning from Tommy John surgery and was well regarded enough previously to be a top 10 - 15 Red prospect. But it might also be Benschoter. The former MSU hurler has pitched fairly well this year, but it's his stuff that's turned some heads. He's got a really lively fastball and that's turned into a solid K pitch for him. He also seems to keep the ball on the ground. The AFL stint might be a way to provide some High A level innings so that he can move right on up to AA as a starter.

[Reds Freak]

I like keeping Roa and Abbott in rotations for now. But Stoudt and Benschochter seem like they might fit better in the bullpen and I like the idea of converting them now. I'm curious if they pull the plug on any more starters. I'm thinking mostly of someone like Joe Boyle. Maybe they can clean up his command for one inning stints.

I forgot all about Lyon Richardson, thanks for bringing his name up.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I like keeping Roa and Abbott in rotations for now. But Stoudt and Benschochter seem like they might fit better in the bullpen and I like the idea of converting them now. I'm curious if they pull the plug on any more starters. I'm thinking mostly of someone like Joe Boyle. Maybe they can clean up his command for one inning stints.

I forgot all about Lyon Richardson, thanks for bringing his name up.

If the Reds were intent on adding bullpen help cheaply, they could do far worse than Levi Stoudt, Sam Benschoter, and Joe Boyle.

I'd much rather see them make this move rather than signing retreads from the depth pile.

A bullpen with some combination of a free agent closer, Alexis Diaz, Tejay Antone, Tony Santillan, Reiver Sanmartin, Joe Boyle, Sam Benschoter, Levi Stoudt, Jeff Hoffman, Derek Law, and Buck Farmer-- plus depth options like Moreta, Kuhnel, Cruz, one of Dunn or Overton, perhaps Sims-- has some upside that I can dream on.

[Benihana]

Agree Williamson will start in Cincy, and Roa and Boyle should start in Louisville.
I’d replace them in the Chattanooga rotation with Bryce Bonnin.
I’d also put Hajjar and Hubbart in the Dayton rotation.

[RED VAN HOT]

Probably the number of innings pitched has something to do with their AFL selections as well.

[Kc61]

Reds need to do a better job of preparing young starters when they switch to the bullpen.

The injury rate in these cases seems high. Antone, Sims, Santillan, for example. Three of the more prominent prospects to go that route missed significant time with injuries.

It’s a very different role and there needs to be ample time for them to get accustomed. And Reds should also add good veterans who have relieved for a number of years and have held up physically.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The injury rate in these cases seems high.

Does it?

This year, it certainly does. Everyone's been hurt, seemingly.

Over the past few years, though, they've been largely healthy. (Both rotation and bullpen.)

Beyond having multiple options and lots and lots of good depth (which ownership will never acquiesce to pay for), I'm not sure there's much that can be done.

[Kc61]

Does it?

This year, it certainly does. Everyone's been hurt, seemingly.

Over the past few years, though, they've been largely healthy. (Both rotation and bullpen.)

Beyond having multiple options and lots and lots of good depth (which ownership will never acquiesce to pay for), I'm not sure there's much that can be done.

Antone, Sims and Santillan may be the most valuable guys converted to bullpen who reached MLB in the last couple years. All three injured, out for long periods.

The differences between starting and relief are obvious. What can be done? Longer lead time making the transition, more teaching and training, lighter usage early on.

In other words, plan and do it properly, as if these pitchers still have value when in the pen.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Antone, Sims and Santillan may be the most valuable guys converted to bullpen who reached MLB in the last couple years. All three injured, out for long periods.

The differences between starting and relief are obvious. What can be done? Longer lead time making the transition, more teaching and training, lighter usage early on.

In other words, plan and do it properly, as if these pitchers still have value when in the pen.

You realize the Cardinals don't do that. Nor do the Dodgers. Or Tampa.

What team in baseball does things the way you think they should be done? What are their successes?

[Kc61]

You realize the Cardinals don't do that. Nor do the Dodgers. Or Tampa.

What team in baseball does things the way you think they should be done? What are their successes?

The Cards, Dodgers and Tampa would never have used a prime reliever as Tejay Antone was used last season. He was bridge man, closer and fireman, all simultaneously. Way too much pressure on a post-TJ relief arm just converted from starting.

As I said in the other forum, around 40% of MLB innings are from the bullpen in MLB. You have to train them and use them with that level of importance in mind. Whatever the Reds’ system is, it’s failing badly.

[Mitri]

The Cards, Dodgers and Tampa would never have used a prime reliever as Tejay Antone was used last season. He was bridge man, closer and fireman, all simultaneously. Way too much pressure on a post-TJ relief arm just converted from starting.

As I said in the other forum, around 40% of MLB innings are from the bullpen in MLB. You have to train them and use them with that level of importance in mind. Whatever the Reds’ system is, it’s failing badly.

Relative to to the league, Reds relievers are doing better than the starters. I don’t really see anything they’re doing wrong when it comes to starters vs. relievers, usage, conversions, etc.

They’re just bad at finding an edge in talent acquisition. On top of that, they’re cheap. All they need is more arms, not a new strategy. They always seem to think they can get away with 1-2 starters and 2-3 relievers less than they really need. That’s it.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Cards, Dodgers and Tampa would never have used a prime reliever as Tejay Antone was used last season. He was bridge man, closer and fireman, all simultaneously. Way too much pressure on a post-TJ relief arm just converted from starting.

As I said in the other forum, around 40% of MLB innings are from the bullpen in MLB. You have to train them and use them with that level of importance in mind. Whatever the Reds’ system is, it’s failing badly.

Antone had three saves total last year. He wasn't the closer. He was used in the fireman spot-- which meant he was used in high leverage times. Most of those were late (7-9 innings), but some of them were early.

The Dodgers, Rays, and Cardinals all used a firemen similarly to the way the Reds used Antone last year. LA yo-yo'ed Garrett Cleavinger from starter to long relief to set-up when he was with them. Mitch White too. The Rays used Collin McHugh, a recent TJ surgery survivor, as a starter, middle reliever, setup guy, and occasional closer. (Drew Rasmussen too.) This year, the Cardinals have used Jordan Hicks as a starter, as a long reliever, and as a setup guy.

[Kc61]

But Antone didn’t have much experience relieving. He was constantly put in high leverage spots. Was already a TJ-recovery guy. And got seriously injured again.

That’s the problem. They didn’t preserve the kid. They couldn’t resist.

If you tell me the Reds just do what other teams do regarding young relief pitchers, then the Reds simply do it worse.