Looking forward to 2023

[Benihana]

Did a quick exercise projecting the starting lineups of the four affiliates, using only players that qualified as true prospects/interesting guys to watch. There are a couple vacancies where I couldn't think of an interesting prospect to take the spot, where it will likely be filled by a non-prospect. Also a couple assumptions around aggressively promoting a couple of the advanced hitters - namely, starting Collier and Stewart in Dayton next year (either one could start in Daytona, but why not push them to Dayton given their advanced bats?). Yellow highlights an aggressive promotion, which may not happen at the beginning of the year. Red highlights the system's truly elite prospects (obviously Collier and McLain are elite too).

[Bourgeois Zee]

Louisville (finally) looks interesting. Prospects everywhere there.

I don't think TJ Hopkins is going to be on the Opening Day roster, though. I do think both he and Alex McGarry will be (back) in Louisville. (And the first guys to go to Cincinnati should anyone get hurt at the corners, 1B, or DH.)

[RedTeamGo!]

I think Siani might get the call up very early next year.

[Old school 1983]

How is Fraley not penciled in as the Reds LF?

I think Dunn is a safe bet as starter 4 as well.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think Siani might get the call up very early next year.

I doubt it.

Dude hasn't blown up and is the weakest bat in Chattanooga.

The Reds will want to give PAs to Friedl. If he faceplants, that's still Memorial Day. Then Fairchild. That's another 100 PA audition. If both of those guys lay an egg, they'll turn to Senzel again (assuming he's still on the team) or perhaps Steer. They might see if Fraley can handle CF again. If none of those options are any good, I'm guessing Matt McLain is next in line, considering he's unlikely to play SS ahead of EDLC or 2B ahead of India (and Steer has the utility spot sewn up). Or they might turn to TJ Hopkins.

That puts Siani fourth in line at best. (And probably fifth or lower.)

If he's an 800 OPS bat, he'll get an opportunity, but I suspect it'll be after the All-Star break at the earliest.

[Benihana]

How is Fraley not penciled in as the Reds LF?

I think Dunn is a safe bet as starter 4 as well.

Because I am trying to focus on guys I think can be helpful in the long term. Fraley has been better than most others on the Reds thus far, but I'm not sure he's much more than a Scott Schebler type- hardly the long term solution to LF for this club. Ditto for Dunn.

Agree with BZ that Siani strikes me as a defensive replacement/bench type OF, rather than a long term starter.

[Old school 1983]

Because I am trying to focus on guys I think can be helpful in the long term. Fraley has been better than most others on the Reds thus far, but I'm not sure he's much more than a Scott Schebler type- hardly the long term solution to LF for this club. Ditto for Dunn.

Fair enough. Makes me question Votto’s inclusion. For Fraley, I think he can stick around for 3 years or so. Unlike Schebler, he knows how to take a walk. If he and Friedl are for real, there are worse things than those 2 in LF and CF, especially with RH caddies. Farmer and Fairchild seem to fit that role. The Reds need a legit RF, and bad.

[Benihana]

Fair enough. Makes me question Votto’s inclusion. For Fraley, I think he can stick around for 3 years or so. Unlike Schebler, he knows how to take a walk. If he and Friedl are for real, there are worse things than those 2 in LF and CF, especially with RH caddies. Farmer and Fairchild seem to fit that role. The Reds need a legit RF, and bad.

Personally, I don’t see how this team ever contends while Fraley and Friedl make up two-thirds of their starting OF.

[Old school 1983]

Personally, I don’t see how this team ever contends while Fraley and Friedl make up two-thirds of their starting OF.

If they play the way they have recently, they are very solid contributors to an MLB team. You don’t get too prospects and all stars at every position. Friedl is a big upgrade over Senzel and Fraley is a big upgrade over the string of backups that have manned LF. Pencil them in and go get a real RF.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Personally, I don’t see how this team ever contends while Fraley and Friedl make up two-thirds of their starting OF.

Friedl's currently sporting a 2022 bat with a 114 wRC+ line, postive defensive WAR, and a very good speed scores. Fraley's a 116 wRC+ bat with a positive speed scores. As a LF, that wRC+ would rank 11th in MLB with enough PAs. Friedl's bat would rank 9th in CF.

Both, were they capable of producing as they have so far this year in 2023, wouldn't just be placeholders-- they'd be first-division starters.

We have no clue whether either can handle a full-time gig, of course, but they've both been very, very good so far this year in limited PAs.

[Kingspoint]

Personally, I don’t see how this team ever contends while Fraley and Friedl make up two-thirds of their starting OF.

Because not every position needs to get filled by a "long-term" answer, which is what you are trying to do for every position. That's just not reasonable or even possible. For a team to win a World Series, or get to the playoffs, which we are trying to do first, that team will be filled with players at positions who are not "long-term" answers, but are positive contributers whether over a particular month, half a season, or for maybe just a handful of games that is the difference between keeping a losing streak from continuing or keeping a winning streak of series wins going. A "successful" lineup is full of non-longterm players who contribute in ways, small ways, throughout the year, many of them surprises when it happens. That's what you hope to get from Friedl or Fraley.

[MikeS21]

Because not every position needs to get filled by a "long-term" answer, which is what you are trying to do for every position. That's just not reasonable or even possible. For a team to win a World Series, or get to the playoffs, which we are trying to do first, that team will be filled with players at positions who are not "long-term" answers, but are positive contributers whether over a particular month, half a season, or for maybe just a handful of games that is the difference between keeping a losing streak from continuing or keeping a winning streak of series wins going. A "successful" lineup is full of non-longterm players who contribute in ways, small ways, throughout the year, many of them surprises when it happens. That's what you hope to get from Friedl or Fraley.

True, there are more players than the starting eight to consider because the number of games your starting eight will be in the same lineup together, will actually be only about 25% of your games. Some time when you have a chance, go back and check out the box scores of the 75-76 BRM. It’s surprising how many games were not started by the complete Great 8. A lot of starts by guys like Plummer, Driessen, Chaney, Flynn, etc.

[Benihana]

Sure but he’s not saying Friedl and Fraley are role players that get occasional starts, he’s suggesting they should be 25% of the starting 8. I personally don’t think a team with that contends for a World Series. And I stand by that.

Anyway this thread was supposed to be more about projecting next year’s starting lineups for the minor league affiliates…

[Kingspoint]

Sure but he’s not saying Friedl and Fraley are role players that get occasional starts, he’s suggesting they should be 25% of the starting 8. I personally don’t think a team with that contends for a World Series. And I stand by that.

Anyway this thread was supposed to be more about projecting next year’s starting lineups for the minor league affiliates…

They won't even give Friedl plate appearances vs LH's despite his OPS of 1.000+ vs LH this season and his 1.200+OPS since his last call-up. There's no concern about those two getting 25% of the Total PA's on the season for the non-DH's. Is there anyone who is even likely to get 10%? I doubt it.


Take all of the Total PA's possible for 2023 and divide that up into who is likely to get them rather than focusing on position.

[RedTeamGo!]

Friedl and Fraley seem very Cardinalsish players to me. For that reason I want to see what they can do in 2023.