2023 Free Agent Targets: The Case for the Cuban Missile

[Bourgeois Zee]

Aroldis Chapman has been among the most dominant closers in the history of the game. For 11 seasons, he was somewhere between exceptional and well above average. This year, he's been largely ineffective. Like, replacement level ineffective. He's still striking people out, though not nearly as many as before. Too, over the past two years, his control has deserted him. This has resulted in a closer that's probably below average. He's on the downside of his career. The Yankees have admitted as much, moving him to a lesser role in their pen, then nearly completely out of the pen entirely. He's getting mop up duties after a month layoff, pitching the seventh inning a couple of days ago in a losing cause. (For the team. Chapman pitched okay.)

But all hope is not lost. Chapman's average fastball is still 97.8 mph. That's nearly elite. His slider is still over 85 mph. That's elite. And the slider has proven to be really solid still.

Were I Nick Krall, I'd look to sign Chapman to a two- or three-year deal with incentives that could push his salary over $10M, but with a base salary of less than $5M. He could earn significant bonuses for a 3.5 BB rate, a 12+ K rate, holds, saves, and save percentage. He could earn bonuses for All-Star berths and Cy Young votes too-- get creative to get the possible salary big, but keep the base low.

I'd also sell him on opportunity. Tell him that the Reds are giving him the closer spot at the beginning of the season, and it's up to him to keep it. Bell could insist Chapman gets a clean inning to work, thereby lessening the need to keep his BBs in check. He'd certainly be a much better option than, say, Hunter Strickland. He could also perhaps be a veteran influence on Alexis Diaz, Tejay Antone, Tony Santillan, and other bullpen guys. These guys likely grew up idolizing Chapman-- the Reds could take advantage of that. (I also suspect Hunter Greene could take advantage of Chapman's skill set and vice versa.)

I don't think other clubs will be falling all over themselves to sign Aroldis, but I do think he could be a prescient signing. I'd love to see the Reds be pretty aggressive this off-season and sign a couple upper level dumpster dives like this one.

Thoughts?

What other dumpster dive relief arms on the free agent market should be targeted?

I suspect he'd jump at that chance.

[Kc61]

I’d do it for one to two years. Three years is pushing the risk IMO. Reds probably won’t touch him given the circumstances of his departure. They didn’t want him around and ownership probably would veto a return.

[REDREAD]

That's actually a great point KC. Has enough time elapsed on the incident? Reds fans are going to have a longer memory since he was a red when it happened.
It wouldn't be an issue for me (IF it's an issue for other people here, that's fine, I don't want to argue that)..
But it probably would be an issue for others.
Given that the team is probably going to be bad for the next 2 years (at least), I can't see the front office sticking out their neck.
Honestly, the Reds would probably prefer to bring Mike Minor back over Chapman.

Zee, I think it's a great idea if the team really wanted to start improving. A good gamble, a good baseball risk. Sadly, I don't see ownership wanting to improve this winter. I do hope I am wrong.

[Roy Tucker]

It’s a thought. Chapman left the team on bad terms, but it was on Jocketty’s watch. Maybe enough time has passed.

I don’t know if he has enough savvy to adjust to his lessening talents. It would be a gamble.

[RedTeamGo!]

Isn't Chapman giving up absolute bombs this year? He seems kind of done, he would probably get blown up in GABP.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Isn't Chapman giving up absolute bombs this year?

HR rate is 1.1, lower than the last two seasons by a significant margin. And his home park might be one of the few more unforgiving than the GABP.

[cumberlandreds]

No. Been there and done that. I'm not so sure he would ever consider coming back. Reds will have to way over pay any FA that is much good at all to come play for them.

[Ron Madden]

Pass

[Powel Crosley]

It would be fun from a fan perspective, but there's other guys I'd rather take a chance on for a few million.

[Kc61]

It’s a thought. Chapman left the team on bad terms, but it was on Jocketty’s watch. Maybe enough time has passed.

I don’t know if he has enough savvy to adjust to his lessening talents. It would be a gamble.

You really believe Jocketty decided to dump Chapman?

[corkedbat]

You really believe Jocketty decided to dump Chapman?

Castellini simply wanted to reduce payroll and panicked when Chapman murdered an innocent garage.

[Bourgeois Zee]

No. Been there and done that. I'm not so sure he would ever consider coming back. Reds will have to way over pay any FA that is much good at all to come play for them.

Chapman will be cheap, I'm guessing.

And fairly productive, if given the right role.

[dfs]

I don't know if other teams have the same romance with players that the team has already seen, but the fanbase always loves to bring back one of our own. From a ticket sales perspective it wouldn't be the worst thing they can do. Lord knows that the bullpen is thin enough that a relatively ineffective Chapman could find a place to be useful.

If the bill is cheap enough then it makes sense from the reds point of view.

I suspect it's a matter of money and desire. If you're Chapman would you be interested in signing for peanuts to be part of this organization again?

[Bourgeois Zee]

I suspect it's a matter of money and desire. If you're Chapman would you be interested in signing for peanuts to be part of this organization again?

Peanuts is relative.

I'm guessing the Reds would offer him a pretty big role (closer) that other big market (or high-paying) teams will not.

The role, I suspect, might trump the paycheck-- at least for a year or two.

(I could well be wrong.)

[herbdizzle]

We have 1 effective late innings reliever in Alexis Diaz. Chapman would be a good get if he'd sign for less than 10 million. I'd give him the closer role with Diaz as his caddy. If he's toast we're only out money. If he rebounds keep him if we're in contention or flip him.