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View Poll Results: Who should be AL MVP?

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  • Aaron Judge

    43 75.44%
  • Shohei Ohtani

    14 24.56%
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Thread: American League MVP

  1. #31
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    The reason he’s also a DH is because he hasn’t played the field regularly since he was a teen, and it’s hard
    My point is that it's one thing to reward a player for playing good defense. That's fair. And it's fair to penalize a player for playing bad defense. But, penalizing a player for not playing defense isn't.
    Last edited by redsfandan; 09-21-2022 at 01:13 AM.

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  4. #32
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    My point is that it's one thing to reward a player for playing good defense. That's fair. And it's fair to penalize a player for playing bad defense. But, penalizing a player for not playing defense isn't.
    It's one of those theoretical things they really ought to stop doing.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  5. #33
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    My point is that it's one thing to reward a player for playing good defense. That's fair. And it's fair to penalize a player for playing bad defense. But, penalizing a player for not playing defense isn't.
    Oh I get it.

    I’m just interested in how people quantity these things

    My main point is if he didn’t pitch he’s likely in the field, he’s not a lump of coal. I bet if he played a position he’d be exceptional

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  7. #34
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post
    My point is that it's one thing to reward a player for playing good defense. That's fair. And it's fair to penalize a player for playing bad defense. But, penalizing a player for not playing defense isn't.
    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's one of those theoretical things they really ought to stop doing.
    I’ve explained this in previous threads.

    If we are to properly evaluate a player’s true value, we absolutely need to penalize them for not playing defense.

    When a player plays defense, with every play they make, they add to their value. We must take that into account. So even a bad defender like Jesse Winker, makes over a hundred plays a season, and each of those plays, when made properly, adds to the team’s run prevention, which adds to the team’s ability to win games.

    When a player is not playing defense, he is not adding to the team’s run prevention, he is not adding to his team’s ability to win games. His value must recognize this and take this into account.

    When a player is at DH, he is less valuable to the team than a player who fields a position. The DH is not making plays while the fielder is. It’s as simple and basic as that.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  8. #35
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I’ve explained this in previous threads.

    If we are to properly evaluate a player’s true value, we absolutely need to penalize them for not playing defense.

    When a player plays defense, with every play they make, they add to their value. We must take that into account. So even a bad defender like Jesse Winker, makes over a hundred plays a season, and each of those plays, when made properly, adds to the team’s run prevention, which adds to the team’s ability to win games.

    When a player is not playing defense, he is not adding to the team’s run prevention, he is not adding to his team’s ability to win games. His value must recognize this and take this into account.

    When a player is at DH, he is less valuable to the team than a player who fields a position. The DH is not making plays while the fielder is. It’s as simple and basic as that.
    A player with no defensive value is actually better than a position player with negative defensive value. Joey Votto at DH > Joey Votto playing shortstop. WAR would give him an offensive positional boost for playing shortstop, but the negative defensive value would be way more.

  9. #36
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I’ve explained this in previous threads.

    If we are to properly evaluate a player’s true value, we absolutely need to penalize them for not playing defense.

    When a player plays defense, with every play they make, they add to their value. We must take that into account. So even a bad defender like Jesse Winker, makes over a hundred plays a season, and each of those plays, when made properly, adds to the team’s run prevention, which adds to the team’s ability to win games.

    When a player is not playing defense, he is not adding to the team’s run prevention, he is not adding to his team’s ability to win games. His value must recognize this and take this into account.

    When a player is at DH, he is less valuable to the team than a player who fields a position. The DH is not making plays while the fielder is. It’s as simple and basic as that.
    Yes, you've admirably explained that you've embraced that particular bit of cognitive dissonance.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  10. #37
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by LeatherPants View Post
    A player with no defensive value is actually better than a position player with negative defensive value. Joey Votto at DH > Joey Votto playing shortstop. WAR would give him an offensive positional boost for playing shortstop, but the negative defensive value would be way more.
    A DH gets a huge negative positional adjustment in every type of WAR that is calculated. fWAR gives them -17.5 runs. So they consider an average fielder to provide 17.5 runs a season on defense. That also means that a DH is not a player with no defensive value, he is a player with a built in, rather large negative value.

    https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/w...al-adjustment/
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  11. #38
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yes, you've admirably explained that you've embraced that particular bit of cognitive dissonance.
    It literally has been well established and accepted by everyone in MLB since they started calculating player's value.

    You are the one who is believing in the Lochness Monster here.
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  12. #39
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It literally has been well established and accepted by everyone in MLB since they started calculating player's value.

    You are the one who is believing in the Lochness Monster here.
    It literally is taking something that DID NOT HAPPEN, pretending it did, then jamming it into an equation that's ultimately supposed to add up to team value. It places our desire to assign comparative value above what actually occurred on the field. The world is full of stupid things people say and do that largely go ignored. This is one of them.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  13. #40
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    Re: American League MVP

    Ohtani is excellent, and the pitching piece is really cool and unprecedented.

    With that said, Judge is having one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history. No brainer IMHO.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  15. #41
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It literally is taking something that DID NOT HAPPEN, pretending it did, then jamming it into an equation that's ultimately supposed to add up to team value. It places our desire to assign comparative value above what actually occurred on the field. The world is full of stupid things people say and do that largely go ignored. This is one of them.
    This is how nearly all of sabermetrics works. It's using a century of historical data to construct hypotheticals. Joey Votto doesn't actually create 97 runs in a season, but we can use historical data to estimate how many runs the sum of all his actions created. When we use park effects, we are using historical data to estimate how productive a player would be if his home park was GABP, or Petco. I have seen you use runs created and park effects over and over again. This is no different.

    If you don't like this part of sabermetrics, fine, then toss out all of sabermetrics. But that is what you will have to do to keep up your argument.
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  16. #42
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    This is how nearly all of sabermetrics works.
    No, it's not. Sabermetrics spends almost all of its time accounting for things that occur on a baseball field.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  17. #43
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    Re: American League MVP

    Giving Jesse Winker, more value, bc he crawled around LF vs a player that was assigned to DH for other reasons is simply nonsensical.


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  19. #44
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Giving Jesse Winker, more value, bc he crawled around LF vs a player that was assigned to DH for other reasons is simply nonsensical.


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    Only that is not what is happening.

    Jesse Winker ends up getting about the same defensive value if he is in LF or if he is DH. That is because he around -17 runs bad in LF. He gives up around 17 runs a season when he plays LF, so that equals the -17 runs he gets when playing DH due to positional adjustment.

    And again the reason why there is a -17 run positional adjustment for DH is because the DH doesn’t make any positive plays. Any player in the field makes many more positive plays in the field than negative ones, even the terrible ones like Jesse Winker.

    I explained this before in another thread, but will do it again here. When Jesse Winker has a -17 run defensive value in LF, that doesn’t mean he makes 17 more negative plays than positive plays. It means he makes 17 more negative plays than the average LF.

    He actually makes over 100 positive plays in the field, plays that lead to outs, that help his team win games. He deserves credit for those and when he is at DH, it needs to be accounted that he doesn’t make those 100+ plays. That is why he is getting -17 runs for being a DH. He is not making those 100+ plays that help his team win.
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  20. #45
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    Re: American League MVP

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He actually makes over 100 positive plays in the field, plays that lead to outs, that help his team win games. He deserves credit for those and when he is at DH, it needs to be accounted that he doesn’t make those 100+ plays. That is why he is getting -17 runs for being a DH. He is not making those 100+ plays that help his team win.
    Actually, mathematically we've determined he isn't helping the team as the run value for those routine plays is 0. We've determined those are plays that any reasonably capable fielder would make. Winker does less than than the minimum in the field, so he's assigned negative defensive value. Yet that's something he DID that had a tangible effect on a baseball game. The DH sitting in the dugout while the rest of the team collects their pluses and minuses in the field is having ZERO EFFECT on the baseball game, along with everyone else in the dugout at that time. We're not subtracting for the other guys also not playing the field and making what we have determined to be routine plays. We're not subtracting defensive value from pitchers who throw fewer innings than other pitchers because they make fewer overall plays in the field.

    Yet that one guy spitting sunflower seeds in the corner, he's racking up negative value. It's absurd.
    Last edited by M2; 09-22-2022 at 12:35 AM.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.


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