Last edited by redsfandan; 09-21-2022 at 01:13 AM.
LeatherPants (09-21-2022),M2 (09-21-2022),Tom Servo (09-21-2022)
Tom Servo (09-21-2022)
I’ve explained this in previous threads.
If we are to properly evaluate a player’s true value, we absolutely need to penalize them for not playing defense.
When a player plays defense, with every play they make, they add to their value. We must take that into account. So even a bad defender like Jesse Winker, makes over a hundred plays a season, and each of those plays, when made properly, adds to the team’s run prevention, which adds to the team’s ability to win games.
When a player is not playing defense, he is not adding to the team’s run prevention, he is not adding to his team’s ability to win games. His value must recognize this and take this into account.
When a player is at DH, he is less valuable to the team than a player who fields a position. The DH is not making plays while the fielder is. It’s as simple and basic as that.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
A player with no defensive value is actually better than a position player with negative defensive value. Joey Votto at DH > Joey Votto playing shortstop. WAR would give him an offensive positional boost for playing shortstop, but the negative defensive value would be way more.
A DH gets a huge negative positional adjustment in every type of WAR that is calculated. fWAR gives them -17.5 runs. So they consider an average fielder to provide 17.5 runs a season on defense. That also means that a DH is not a player with no defensive value, he is a player with a built in, rather large negative value.
https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/w...al-adjustment/
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
It literally is taking something that DID NOT HAPPEN, pretending it did, then jamming it into an equation that's ultimately supposed to add up to team value. It places our desire to assign comparative value above what actually occurred on the field. The world is full of stupid things people say and do that largely go ignored. This is one of them.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Ohtani is excellent, and the pitching piece is really cool and unprecedented.
With that said, Judge is having one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history. No brainer IMHO.
What would you say.....ya do here?
This is how nearly all of sabermetrics works. It's using a century of historical data to construct hypotheticals. Joey Votto doesn't actually create 97 runs in a season, but we can use historical data to estimate how many runs the sum of all his actions created. When we use park effects, we are using historical data to estimate how productive a player would be if his home park was GABP, or Petco. I have seen you use runs created and park effects over and over again. This is no different.
If you don't like this part of sabermetrics, fine, then toss out all of sabermetrics. But that is what you will have to do to keep up your argument.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
Tom Servo (09-22-2022)
Only that is not what is happening.
Jesse Winker ends up getting about the same defensive value if he is in LF or if he is DH. That is because he around -17 runs bad in LF. He gives up around 17 runs a season when he plays LF, so that equals the -17 runs he gets when playing DH due to positional adjustment.
And again the reason why there is a -17 run positional adjustment for DH is because the DH doesn’t make any positive plays. Any player in the field makes many more positive plays in the field than negative ones, even the terrible ones like Jesse Winker.
I explained this before in another thread, but will do it again here. When Jesse Winker has a -17 run defensive value in LF, that doesn’t mean he makes 17 more negative plays than positive plays. It means he makes 17 more negative plays than the average LF.
He actually makes over 100 positive plays in the field, plays that lead to outs, that help his team win games. He deserves credit for those and when he is at DH, it needs to be accounted that he doesn’t make those 100+ plays. That is why he is getting -17 runs for being a DH. He is not making those 100+ plays that help his team win.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
Actually, mathematically we've determined he isn't helping the team as the run value for those routine plays is 0. We've determined those are plays that any reasonably capable fielder would make. Winker does less than than the minimum in the field, so he's assigned negative defensive value. Yet that's something he DID that had a tangible effect on a baseball game. The DH sitting in the dugout while the rest of the team collects their pluses and minuses in the field is having ZERO EFFECT on the baseball game, along with everyone else in the dugout at that time. We're not subtracting for the other guys also not playing the field and making what we have determined to be routine plays. We're not subtracting defensive value from pitchers who throw fewer innings than other pitchers because they make fewer overall plays in the field.
Yet that one guy spitting sunflower seeds in the corner, he's racking up negative value. It's absurd.
Last edited by M2; 09-22-2022 at 12:35 AM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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