American League MVP

[RedsManRick]

My point is that it's one thing to reward a player for playing good defense. That's fair. And it's fair to penalize a player for playing bad defense. But, penalizing a player for not playing defense isn't.

When you are in the lineup, you are forced to take up a defensive position. DH is one of those positions. That is, by being the DH, somebody else in your starting 9 is not the DH and is instead playing a position on the field.

If we replaced you, the DH, with a guy who was replacement level defensively and we could shift everybody else accordingly and put our worst defender in DH, how much better/worse would the team defense be? Well, it turns out that it's really easy to find solid defenders if that's all we cared about. In fact, it's so easy, there's basically no limit to them. Ah, but we have to get the whole package. The replacement has to hit too. And it turns out, when you look at the population of guys whose total package of production sums up to being just barely good enough on balance to make the majors, they average out to being poor hitters and league average defenders.

But what if you went and found a replacement level guy who was actually a very solid, DH-level hitter? Well, that's a much smaller pool of guys to pick from. And if he's that good a hitter but but still freely available, it's likely because he's entirely useless defensively. To put him in the lineup, you'd either suffer his poor defense at a position where he do the least damage or you play him at DH and be forced to play your other 8 guys at positions, including the guy who is the worst among the 8 who might other get to DH.

So, back to the question. If we go out and get a replacement level guy to replace the DH, what's the impact on the team? Well, know that the total package adds up to replacement level, if he's a decent defender, he's almost certainly a much worse hitter than the average DH. And if he's a DH level hitter, he's almost certainly borderline unplayable on defense. And if neither of those is true, he's not a replacement level player.

So there you go. The DH is a position and, by virtue of filling it, you are impacting the ways in which your team can obtain production. To properly account that, you have to adjust for the lack of value that guy is providing you by not contributing anything on defense.

Is the number they use the right number? That's arguable. I've seen well-reasoned arguments that it should be the same as the worst of the 8 positions (following my logic above) instead of 5 runs worse. But it is definitely not zero; the opportunity cost is real and it shows up in the runs your team can't prevent by better utilizing the other 8 defenders.

[M2]

So there you go. The DH is a position and, by virtue of filling it, you are impacting the ways in which your team can obtain production. To properly account that, you have to adjust for the lack of value that guy is providing you by not contributing anything on defense.

But you could be impacting the ways in which your team is obtaining run production in positive or negative ways. And that varies lineup to lineup, team to team, and no one is doing that math. Likewise, no one is doing the math on the value of a player shifting leftward on the defensive scale so that another productive hitter can join the lineup (e.g. David Eckstein at SS or Miguel Cabrera at 3B). There's a good reason for it - the value is theoretical and we're trying determine the value of observable events. Yet we throw all of that out the window when it comes to the DH. We're making up a number for things that DID NOT HAPPEN. That ought to send us back to the chalkboard.

[757690]

Actually, mathematically we've determined he isn't helping the team as the run value for those routine plays is 0.

No, that is incorrect. The run value over an average fielder is 0. That is how UZR, which is the basis for the defensive side of fWAR is figured.

This is the part that most people misunderstand. A player with a 0 UZR in LF is not producing the minimum, he producing the average on defense. He is providing plenty of positive production with his defense, just not above average production.

[M2]

No, that is incorrect. The run value over an average fielder is 0. That is how UZR, which is the basis for the defensive side of fWAR is figured.

This is the part that most people misunderstand. A player with a 0 UZR in LF is not producing the minimum, he producing the average on defense. He is providing plenty of positive production with his defense, just not above average production.

You're grasping. I said we have mathematically determined it to be valueless and now you're restating that while trying lawyer the terminology. 0 is not production. It is the absence of production. Nothing of value was produced, therefore it is awarded zero points.

[757690]

You're grasping. I said we have mathematically determined it to be valueless and now you're restating that while trying lawyer the terminology. 0 is not production. It is the absence of production. Nothing of value was produced, therefore it is awarded zero points.

I am not going to derail this thread any further. Read up on it, everything written about this backs me up.

Back to the topic, Judge 2-4 tonight, two double. OPS+ 214!

[M2]

I am not going to derail this thread any further. Read up on it, everything written about this backs me up.

I suggest you learn the difference between average and replacement.

[Tony Cloninger]

Judge had slowed down during the Yankees bad run so I thought SO might overtake him especially with his great year as a pitcher. But Judhe decided to do his Yaz 1967 impersonation and start carrying the Yankees himself and since pitchers refuse to just throw him nothing but low and away sliders and everything in the dirt. I mean who else is going to hurt you much in that lineup on any consistent basis. Stanton might get hot but more probable he disappears. It’s Judge.

Too bad Trout lost about 50 games because he’s having a better offensive season than Ohtani based on OPS.

[kaldaniels]

So if Ohtani being the DH penalizes him for not playing the field, how much is he rewarded for opening up an extra spot on the roster?

[757690]

I suggest you learn the difference between average and replacement.

Dude, you are the one who is confusing the two here. Seriously, do some research, you’re just factually wrong on this.

With “Defensive Runs Saved,” a player with zero defensive runs saved is providing zero runs saved over the average player, not replacement player. Same with UZR. That is how it works.

[757690]

So if Ohtani being the DH penalizes him for not playing the field, how much is he rewarded for opening up an extra spot on the roster?

Does he though?

Very few teams have a player dedicated 100% to the DH. It usually is filled by a player who plays other positions, like Ohtani does. It’s just rare that the other position is a pitcher.

[Sea Ray]

I’ll be the curmudgeon. It’s what the award says. I have a hard time giving it to a player on a team 19 games under .500 and 34.5 games out of first.

There's nothing curmudgeonly about it. The award is what it says it is regardless of how others wish it were something else

[M2]

Dude, you are the one who is confusing the two here. Seriously, do some research, you’re just factually wrong on this.

With “Defensive Runs Saved,” a player with zero defensive runs saved is providing zero runs saved over the average player, not replacement player. Same with UZR. That is how it works.

And then WAR equations take those numbers to determine replacement value. A zero DRS/UZR does not equal a 0.0 dWAR. You are deeply confused.

[Sea Ray]

WAR penalizes players like Ohtani because they hit as a dh. But, the reason he is a dh is because he's also one of their best starting pitchers. Teams aren't going to put one of their best starting pitchers in the field when they don't pitch. So, it's not fair to hold it against Ohtani when it comes to the MVP.

It's not about being fair. If we're going to go down that road one could make the argument that it wasn't fair in Babe Ruth's time that he had to play defense and didn't have the luxury of DHing. As for Judge vs Ohtani, regardless of the reasons, Judge is playing defense and playing it pretty well. Ohtani isn't.

[Sea Ray]

If Judge is able to pull off the Triple Crown (less likely) while breaking Maris' record (likely), then I think it should go to him. And I say that as someone who thinks it should go to Ohtani.

So you think this award should hang on whether Judge holds off Bogaerts for the batting title? I think that's irrelevant.

[757690]

And then WAR equations take those numbers to determine replacement value. A zero DRS/UZR does not equal a 0.0 dWAR. You are deeply confused.

Sigh. That is one reason why they use positional adjustment numbers. To rectify that UZR is based on the average player and WAR is based on replacement player.

Look, I have issue with WAR too, for some of the same reasons you do, but positional adjustment is not one of them. It’s necessary based on how they calculate WAR.