First in a series, examining the Reds' prospects and hopefully providing some off-season discussion on where and how highly specific guys should rank. Provide your opinions, scouting reports, et al. Argue as you see fit.
TLR Version:
Intriguing arms that might end up in the pen due to erratic control in and outside the strike zone. Spincinnati in full force.
Top 10 Prospects
Connor Phillips AA
He throws hard. He doesn't throw strikes. Settle in-- that's a theme. Phillips is young and has an idea of what he wants to do on the mound. A 60 fastball and a couple 50 off-speed offerings plus a pitcher's body indicate a high floor. Typically, his game revolves around weak or no contact. He gets in trouble when he cannot locate his pitches. The 12.3 K rate is particularly nice. the 5.3 BB rate? Notsomuch. He's 21, so he's got some time to figure it out.
Chase Petty High A
Another big-time fastball and precocious riser, Petty finished the season with four dominant starts in High A, two clunkers, and one middling. At age 19, that's outstanding. He has a big fastball and is one of the few Red pitching prospects who can locate. 8.8 K isn't all that great-- he may have to tinker as he moves up the ladder. Part of that tinkering may well be adding bulk. He's a pretty small guy. Adding some weight could prove beneficial. Really like his potential and think he might end up a solid MOR innings eater.
Brandon Williamson AAA
Williamson was the crown jewel of the Eugenio Suarez/ Jesse Winker Mariner trade over last off-season. His season did not go quite according to plan. Williamson struggled to throw strikes. That resulted in a nondescript season for a supposed top 100 prospect. He was too hittable too-- the exact opposite of his BFF Nick Lodolo. His stuff seemed to back up quite a bit from 2021 too. That's problematic. As a southpaw, he can move to the pen and be a solid guy there, but I'm getting some serious Cody Reed vibes.
Andrew Abbott AA
For all of the starts on this list who have big, big stuff, Abbott is the counterexample. He's a slight lefty. His curve is exceptional, a long, looping thing that comes out of right field and dives to the right handed batter's back foot. His fastball is nothing special either-- low 90s at best. The changeup is nascient in its development too. So why does he rank so highly? Because he seems to know how to pitch. He's a Travis Wood type-- and those guys tend to outpitch their rankings on national boards. Abbott dominated in Dayton, then struggled mightily in Chattanooga before righting the ship his last three starts. More, he started finding his K groove. I suspect he will spend most of the season in AAA Louisville, but may get a shot at a rotation spot if injuries and a lack of depth hit the staff again.
Levi Stoudt AAA
Stoudt's stuff might be better than anyone on this list so far. His fastball can top out over 100, and his slider is unhittable at times. The problem is that he's rarely the same pitcher start to start. He has to find some consistency in his stuff before he can move up the ladder. And that makes sense, honestly, with his pitching history. TJ surgery early in his professional career kept him off the mound, but his stuff kept him from getting hammered too badly. There's clay here. That said, he's in AAA for a reason. He might end up a bullpen arm, but if he can harness that stuff, he's a Luis Castillo type. That he's so low on the Reds' pitching list should tell you the likelihood of that happening.
Christian Roa AA
Roa's another guy who's been hurt by injuries. Whenever he gets going, he seems to spend another month or two on the disabled list. Moved to AA at the end of a rather nondescript High A season, Roa was outstanding. Three starts, 17 innings, and two earned runs later, he was announced as an AFL participant. If he pitches as well there as he did in Chattanooga, Roa could vault up this list. Limiting his free passes, as always seems to be the case with Red pitchers, is key. 14% is far, far too high for a pitcher with his stuff.
Joe Boyle AA
Speaking of stuff, woof. Boyle's got it. An 80 fastball among the fastest in professional baseball and a nasty, nasty 55 slider make him super interesting. A BB rate three miles past the outer edges of acceptable make anyone with a spreadsheet doubt he's got any shot whatsoever. I think Boyle's a Tanner Rainey type-- give him a clean frame with no one on base, and he'll find a way to get through the inning without much damage. Those guys have some real value, if used properly. But that upside is ace level-- that's why they're making sure he can't start.
Bryce Bonnin High A
Bonnin has been highly effective-- when he's been healthy. He can't stay healthy. Perhaps a move to the pen would help? One of these seasons, he'll either completely blow out his elbow/ shoulder, or he'll stay remarkably healthy and put up monster numbers on a meteoric rise of the minor league ladder. All he needs are innings, but there's increasing doubt he's got the arm to witshstand the rigors of those innings.
Jose Acuna Low A
A lottery ticket from the Mets for Tyler Naquin, Acuna came over and pitched really well in seven starts in low A Daytona as a 19-year-old. Lots of K's. Not that many free passes. Low hit numbers. Young for his level. Acuna has become one to watch. (I know, this isn't exactly ground-breaking analysis. You get what you pay for, I guess.)
Bryce Hubbart Low A
Hubbart was FSU's southpaw starter for three years and was drafted in 2022 in the third round. He's got good stuff, lots of spin, and little idea of where it's going. He'll be an interesting arm to follow and could move quickly. Most prognosticators seem to think he'd be a solid relief option if he can't hack it as a starter. This seems to be the case with nearly every Red starting pitcher candidate on this list.
Most Likely to See Time in Cincinnati in 2023:
In order:
1. Brandon Williamson-- At this point, he's a legitimate option for a starting berth on the Opening Day roster. (This is why they need to sign free agents.)
2. Levi Stoudt-- At some point this season, they'll realize he's rather old, has massive stuff, and could help the bullpen. He'll put up great numbers in that role-- mostly.
3. Ricky Karcher-- Relief arm that looks to be fungible depth. They ran through this type of arm at an alarming rate in 2022.
4. Eddy Demurias-- Rubber-armed reliever with little beyond the ability to pitch long innings interesting. Another depth guy.
5. Joe Boyle-- If they pull the plug on his starting gig, he's got enough right now to be an effective closer. I don't think they'll pull that plug this year. 2024, most likely, then.
Don't Sleep On
Lyon Richardson, High A
Richardson was a top ten-ish prospect before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John. Prospects who come back from that particular knife tend to fall into one of three categories: 1) They're finished and wont ever be anything. 2) Nothing's changed. 3) They find more velocity as they streamline their motions. If Richardson can add velocity but limit his walks, he's just as good a prospect as anyone else on this pitching list. And since he was drafted in 2018, the Reds might be a bit more aggressive with his level.
Super Deep Cut
Eduardo Salazar AA
Salazar got hit around like a pinata this season in Chattanooga. That's typically the death knell for a starter. That said, there are two reasons why I like him as a possible relief arm moving forward:
1.) He's durable.
2.) He's got a good fastball.
I suspect, if given one- or two-inning stints, Salazar is smart enough to use his mid-90s fastball (and perhaps see it bumped to 97, 98) and off-speed stuff to limit hits and walks and be a bit better than replacement level as a middle relief arm. Those guys are valuable-- if the Reds can find a guy like that each season, they'll be swimming in butter. Salazar's my guy for a late-career conversion and a couple seasons of adequacy. It may not happen in 2022-- he was a starter in Chattanooga and might be needed as a starter in Louisville too-- but when it does, I suspect he'll find a way to be okay.
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Originally Posted by M2
