State of the Farm: Catching

[Bourgeois Zee]

Third in a series examining the Reds' future, so far, we discussed starting pitching (questions about roles, but several high floors and impact arms mean the bullpen looks solid, if not the rotation) and corner outfield (woof...). We now turn to the tools of ignorance.

TL;DR version: Hey, at least we still have Tyler Stephenson... Despite drafting catchers within the first seven rounds every year since 2015 (not to mention spending relatively highly on the position internationally), the Reds have very little to show for it. At best, their group of prospective catchers look like career-long backups.

Top Prospects
Cade Hunter Low A
Hunter undoubtedly has the coolest name of the bunch. He sounds like an 80s movie role played by Tom Cruise or Sylvester Stallone. Or maybe a comic book hero from the 60s. He was drafted well below fellow 2022 draftee Logan Tanner, but hit far better in small samples at the professional ranks, so I rank him first. Hunter has, according to MLB, really good peripherals, including hitted ball stats-- he tends to hit the ball hard. The questions surrounding Hunter have been defensive. That said, he did throw out six of 14 would-be base stealers in just under 100 innings, an outstanding 43% in the ACL and low A. That's very good to see. Like his debut and like that he's LH too. Hunter will be brough along slowly, I suspect, but has power, patience, and a penchant for punishing fastballs. He does have to learn to lay off quality breaking pitches. Might be a bit of a low level mirage in that regard, putting up big numbers against poor offspeed pitches. We'll see sometime before 2026.

Logan Tanner Low A
Where Hunter is more polished offensively, Logan Tanner has defensive chops. At least according to scouts. He didn't fare as well in his small sample of professional PAs, with a .200/ .329/ .300/ .629 line across 73 PAs. Tanner struggled mightily not to strike out, as his 22 Ks attest. He did have 12 BBs. According to scouts, he should end up showing patience and pop offensively, with a low BA. Where he should shine is behind the plate. He did throw out 36% of would-be base stealers. That's a solid percentage. He and Hunter will likely move up the ladder together, as they have a natural LH/RH platoon split. Expect them to tag-team Daytona next season.

Daniel Vellojin AA
Vellojin was a surpise Fangraphs' top 10 prospect for 2022. Far be it from me to believe Fangraphs was being purposefully sensational in its rankings, but very few would-be prognosticators believed he belonged that highly. In 2022, Vellojin began the season banged up-- he didn't play until May 17. And it took him a whole month to get going at all. In 11 May contests, he put up a putrid .094/ .275/ .188/ .463. Then he found his groove. Despite anemic BA, he was able to OPS 700+ for three of the next four months. Included in that is a short stay in High A that hinted at his intriguing bat (.271/ .393/ .514 in 75 PAs). That largely (predictably) came from taking walks and punishing baseballs. Vellojin has good power and excellent plate discipline. He was moved aggressively to Chattanooga and struggled to end the season. Defensively, he's supposedly solid, but a couple seasons after putting up monster CS numbers, he regressed. He only threw out 30% of speedsters, with a positively alarming 24% in AA. That'll have to be fixed moving forward. Speaking of, Vellojin could end up being a part of a monster class that will likely arrive in 2024. More likely, he sticks in Chattanooga for half a season or so, then moves up as he proves his glove is truly solid and his bat is above league average. AA is often the proving ground, and Vellojin has time on his side. He's only 23.

Mat Nelson AAA
Mat Nelson had largely the same season as he did the year he was drafted. In the same league. That does not bode well for his future. Another in a long, long line of low BA, low hit, big patience, big power guys, Nelson has the added questions of whether his glove can stick behind the plate. He threw out 33% of base stealers-- that's a six percentage point increase from 2021. He had massive issues with Ks, striking out 33% of the time he came to bat. That is no muy bueno. A season after an 88 wRC+ offensive added to mixed reviews on his glove makes this a prove it season for the former Seminole. It's not looking great so far.

Mark Koloszvary AAA/MLB
This time last year, Koloszvary was an interesting guy. He'd played pretty well with Team USA and has hit okay as an upper minors catcher. He was looked at as the backup catcher of the near future. He got his shot-- his name is etched in the annals of baseball history at the highest level. 10 games later, the former Gator was moved to the minors in favor of other options. Koloszvary just didn't play very much in 2022. That in itself might be a franchise tell-- do they still believe in the guy?

Sleeper to Keep an Eye On:
Jackson Miller ACL
I'm pretty sure Jackson Miller is a figment of our collected imagination. He's played a grand total of three games in the three seasons since being drafted. When drafted, he was a 2nd round pick praised for his exceptional bat. In instructs, they seemed to like it too. He's been hurt for seemingly forever. This season, he was out for sports hernia surgery. Reds Twitter showed him catching in Arizona in September, so we know he's still alive. I suspect, at 20, they'll move him aggressively should he show any semblance of adequacy. The issue, of course, is where to start him. Dayton seems incredibly lofty, considering he's only had seven PAs in the past three seasons. Could Daytona carry three catchers or might Tanner move up to Dayton as the nominal starter?

[Old school 1983]

As far as the backup options this year I liked Mark Koloszvary the best. Although that may say more about the other options than it does him.

[Bourgeois Zee]

As far as the backup options this year I liked Mark Koloszvary the best. Although that may say more about the other options than it does him.

I'm really hoping they go out on a limb and name Farmer the backup. League average-ish backup catchers largely don't exist, and he'd be an absolute weapon in that role.

Failing that, I'd much prefer they try to find a guy on the free agent market. I'm guessing Gary Sanchez would be fairly cheap-- $6M or so. Spotted in specific places, he'd be much more likely to help the team than another cheaper option. I'd spend real money on Omar Narvaez too. Kevin Plawecki would be another I'd consider paying for. Mike Zunino too. All of those guys have big-time power and might see a bit of a bump from fly balls becoming homers.

[Old school 1983]

I'm really hoping they go out on a limb and name Farmer the backup. League average-ish backup catchers largely don't exist, and he'd be an absolute weapon in that role.

Failing that, I'd much prefer they try to find a guy on the free agent market. I'm guessing Gary Sanchez would be fairly cheap-- $6M or so. Spotted in specific places, he'd be much more likely to help the team than another cheaper option. I'd spend real money on Omar Narvaez too. Kevin Plawecki would be another I'd consider paying for. Mike Zunino too. All of those guys have big-time power and might see a bit of a bump from fly balls becoming homers.

I think Sanchez and Narvaez are both good targets. They need someone to backup Stephenson who at minimum can be a zero WAR player. The Reds have too many negative win players around the diamond

[Kc61]

Arguably Tyler S is the best hitter on the Reds. Having him lose most of his season to catching injuries is very damaging. He’s a very important bat, which was lost because of those injuries.

At minimum, it is necessary to have a viable backup. Lot of differences of opinion how to handle Tyler now, but probably universally agreed that a strong secondary catcher is important.

If the player is not in the high minors, he must be acquired. To my mind this is one of the most critical needs of the Reds.

[mth123]

Nelson crashing and burning has made this area a wasteland. Maybe Miller, Hunter or Tanner will show worthiness. A player from outside the organization makes sense. A lefty seems like the best fit on the surface, but a RH bat that can be a lefty killer could fit nicely while Stephenson DH's on those days. The Reds need RH pop and when a lefty is on the mound a RH bat along the lines of Sanchez could be just what the line-up needs while some of the lefty bats take a seat (Votto, Fraley, Friedl, etc).

[Bourgeois Zee]

To my mind this is one of the most critical needs of the Reds.

Assuming they choose not to play Farmer there, here's my list, in order of importance (as of now-- my list may change as I think about it):

1. A big bat capable of being 20% better than league average at a position of weakness (DH/1B, OF, SS)
2. A top of the rotation starting pitcher capable of tossing 175 innings of 120 ERA+ baseball
3. A league average or better upside play at a position of weakness (DH/1B, OF, SS)
4. A league average or better backup catcher
5. A back-of-the-bullpen reliever

Right now, I'd like to see:
Dansby Swanson, SS: $30M
Mike Clevinger, SP: $17M
Wil Myers, RF: $8M
Gary Sanchez, C: $8M
Aroldis Chapman, RP: $7M

That's $70 million in free agents, not including that BOR guy or any depth signings. The Reds could get rid of about $10M in salary ballast (both Farmers, Hoffman, Cessa, and Sims would go, in favor of Sanmartin and a whole host of young arms, like Boyle, Stoudt, and Williamson) to get down to $60M before jumping back up. That'd give them a payroll of about $130M.

That said, it's still not likely enough to win the division. (Though it'd be close, I suspect.) It would be enough to place second, though, assuming the Cubs don't go nuts.

[Kc61]

Assuming they choose not to play Farmer there, here's my list, in order of importance (as of now-- my list may change as I think about it):

1. A big bat capable of being 20% better than league average at a position of weakness (DH/1B, OF, SS)
2. A top of the rotation starting pitcher capable of tossing 175 innings of 120 ERA+ baseball
3. A league average or better upside play at a position of weakness (DH/1B, OF, SS)
4. A league average or better backup catcher
5. A back-of-the-bullpen reliever

Right now, I'd like to see:
Dansby Swanson, SS: $30M
Mike Clevinger, SP: $17M
Wil Myers, RF: $8M
Gary Sanchez, C: $8M
Aroldis Chapman, RP: $7M

That's $70 million in free agents, not including that BOR guy or any depth signings. The Reds could get rid of about $10M in salary ballast (both Farmers, Hoffman, Cessa, and Sims would go, in favor of Sanmartin and a whole host of young arms, like Boyle, Stoudt, and Williamson) to get down to $60M before jumping back up. That'd give them a payroll of about $130M.

That said, it's still not likely enough to win the division. (Though it'd be close, I suspect.) It would be enough to place second, though, assuming the Cubs don't go nuts.

As someone who expects a more modest “spending spree” this off-season, this looks great except for Swanson. Oh, I’d love Swanson but I just think it’s a little rich for right now. The $40 million group should not be out of the realm of what’s possible for 2023. Good suggestions.

[klw]

Sad to say that most have been performing Okey.

[herbdizzle]

Easy solution is sign Contreras. Stephenson can be the backup catcher, share 1B and primary DH. Solves 2 positional issues and adds 2 big bats by keeping Tyler on the field.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Easy solution is sign Contreras. Stephenson can be the backup catcher, share 1B and primary DH. Solves 2 positional issues and adds 2 big bats by keeping Tyler on the field.

That's a fine idea. According to the NY Post, Contreras will be looking for a $100M, five-year deal. Let's assume $25M gets him for one season.

They could then backfill both RF and SS (Iglesias?) with cheap upside plays.

Assuming everything else is the same (Clevinger, Chapman, Myers) that free agent spree would cost somewhere around $60M and would put their overall payroll at $120M-- which is less than it was in 2020 (pre-pandemic). They'd also have about $80M coming off the books after 2023 to spend too. (Remember, both Votto and Moustakas are free agents after 2023.)

[backbencher]

@Bourgeois Zee, these threads are wonderful. Thanks for doing them.

Pretty sure that the Catchers thread is even more depressing than the corner OFs.

On the proposed FAs, I don't think that it is at all realistic to expect players who can land a multiyear FA contract to accept a one-year deal. As the Reds are averse to long term deals, I think that the realistic free agents are (a) pitchers who would accept three-year deals, (b) hitters who would accept four-to-five year deals (on the possibly-false assumption that the Reds see hitters as somewhat less risky), and (c) hitters interested in one- or two- year "prove it" deals on the Castellanos or Drury model.

I don't see Swansby as a good fit, as the Reds best (only) chance of success is if any FA signings complement the rising talent. I'd be opposed to any use of material resources at 3b-ss-2b, as the Reds should have talent maturing into those positions over the next 2-3 years.

Catcher is tricky because Stevenson loses so much value elsewhere and the pipeline is dry. I'd look for either rotating Casali-types or perhaps a 2-3 year deal for a someone a half a step up as a hitter.

Conversely, I'd be looking deep for two starters, multiple relievers and a big corner bat. I like Clevinger, our friend Cueto, I'm sure a handful of others could be good fits as pitchers who may accept good three-year deals.

I'd also emphasize "Rolen" qualities for all FA targets. The Reds' success, if they find it, will be from youth. Good veterans - veterans who will be there more than one year - can stabilize the team and help mold/teach the youth.

[corkedbat]

Can't see them paying $30M on a SS with De La Cruz (and others) on the way. I know. I know - don't fall in love with prospects. I'm not. I just think it's written in stone that they sink or swim with EDLC no matter what probably as soon as the TDL.

IF they spend my priorities would be:

1. Top 3 starter
2. Corner OF
3 & 3A. Solid left & righthanded relievers
4. A 4/5 starter
5. Reserve Catcher (preferably a left-hand or switch-hitting bat)

If they plan on using Stevenson on even a semi-regular basis at DH/1B, I'd strongly consider carrying a 3rd catcher, so it would be nice if one of the two guys behind Tyler had a somewhat decent bat and maybe a little position versatility.

[Old school 1983]

If the Reds increase payroll, I think good targets are Contreas, Haniger and Diaz. Get a lesser piece to fill in the rotations. Cueto and Miley come to mind. Contreas operates as described above. It really massively upgrades 2 positions. There is no RF in sight in the Reds system. Haniger covers that. The pen is a shambles. Diaz pushes all pen members back a spot and he and his brother have a lock down 8-9th. Estimated cost

Contreas-$20M
Haniger-$15M
Diaz-$17M
Miley could probably be had on a show me deal. Eats innings. May be great. Allows for the Reds to develop a starter in the 5th spot. Think it’d run about $52M-$55 for all of them.

[Kc61]

If the Reds increase payroll, I think good targets are Contreas, Haniger and Diaz. Get a lesser piece to fill in the rotations. Cueto and Miley come to mind. Contreas operates as described above. It really massively upgrades 2 positions. There is no RF in sight in the Reds system. Haniger covers that. The pen is a shambles. Diaz pushes all pen members back a spot and he and his brother have a lock down 8-9th. Estimated cost

Contreas-$20M
Haniger-$15M
Diaz-$17M
Miley could probably be had on a show me deal. Eats innings. May be great. Allows for the Reds to develop a starter in the 5th spot. Think it’d run about $52M-$55 for all of them.

$52-55 million? The Reds? I’ve been thinking similarly, terrible season, they’ll spend now. But then I remember that they’re into building from within, a euphemism for “forget it.”