2023 Arizona Fall League

[Bourgeois Zee]

If I remember right, his ceiling when he drafted was Giancarlo Stanton. That would be a great development

I suspect he's more Glenn Braggs.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Hinds, McLain, and Marte all played and did pretty well for the Desert Dogs last night. McLain and Marte were on base three times apiece, each with one hit and two BBs. Hinds had the dinger, his second. McLain also had his second SB and Marte his first error. Jake Gozzo is proving he's not ready. 3 more ER and the blown save and loss.

[RedTeamGo!]

If I remember right, his ceiling when he drafted was Giancarlo Stanton. That would be a great development

I’ll be shocked if Hinds ever sees MLB

[Tom Servo]

I’ll be shocked if Hinds ever sees MLB

I wouldn't go that far but I'm not especially bullish on him.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Sam Benschoter was throwing 96+ mph in his three shutout innings yesterday. He's tossed 8 innings so far in Arizona and has yet to give up a run. 5 K and one BB. 5 H in those 8 innings too.

He's 24, so he's pretty ancient for a prospect, but might be interesting in a middle relief kind of way.

[krm1580]

I’ll be shocked if Hinds ever sees MLB

Agreed. He strikes me as a very poor man’s Joey Gallo.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Agreed. He strikes me as a very poor man’s Joey Gallo.

He's going to play at the MLB level.

He might not play much, but he'll get at least a cup of coffee.

(Some of you guys don't seem to understand how that works.)

[Z-Fly]

He's going to play at the MLB level.

He might not play much, but he'll get at least a cup of coffee.

(Some of you guys don't seem to understand how that works.)

I don't. Please Explain.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I don't. Please Explain.

He's a high draft pick who's already made it to AA.

He's in the Arizona Fall League too, so the parent club think enough of him to at least get a look.

If he remains healthy, Hinds is a near lock to make the majors.

(Now, he might not get more than 100 PAs, but he's going to get there. Nearly every guy like him does-- especially over the past 20 years. There's too much invested for them not to make it.)

Choose any minor league season from the past 30 years. About half the AA squad will make it to the majors. If they're starters under 23, the odds go up substantially. If they're also high draft picks, they're almost guaranteed to get there. Since 1992, no Red drafted in the second round who played in AA under the age of 23 has stalled out before making the bigs. They've all made it. You have to go all the way back to 1991 and Toby Rumfield to find a guy who didn't get there. (Quite a few have stalled out before AA or have made it to AA two or three years after their would-be prime, but none have hit AA at the "correct" prospect age and still flopped so completely as to not make it at all.)

Remember, too, Hinds was only 21 last year. He made it to AA fairly young. (Especially considering the pandemic's lost season.)

[mth123]

Hinds is young enough to jump up in the rankings. I think Juan Francisco at this point. Pretty sure he’ll get big league time, but pessimistic about his chances at success. That could change with a big 2023.

[Kingspoint]

It's interesting, to me, that McLain continues to play SS.

Despite the emergence of EDLC, McLain hasn't been moved.

I'm curious as to why.

You'll become a better Defender if you are training at SS. The transition can come later.

[klw]

Keith Law was in Arizona and wrote about his observations:
https://theathletic.com/3703139/2022...a-fall-league/

A few quick hits on Reds in the Fall League: newly-acquired Noelvi Marte, now their top prospect in the AFL, looked very good defensively at third base, moving very well to his left and showing a plus arm, with a couple of hard-hit balls in my brief looks … shortstop Matt McLain was rather disappointing, making poor-quality contact all week, although he has shown he can certainly distinguish balls from strikes, with 10 walks and five strikeouts in 36 plate appearances so far. He’s an above-average runner but definitely moves to second base … Rece Hinds did what he usually does – whiff a lot and hit the ball very hard when he doesn’t miss. He struggled much more with off-speed pitches than fastballs, although I did see him put breaking stuff in play a couple of times, just not as well as he hits heaters. He’s still a lottery ticket of sorts, as the power is an 80 and he’s not devoid of other skills, but he has struck out right around 40 percent at three different spots this year, and that’s just not playable.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Hinds is young enough to jump up in the rankings. I think Juan Francisco at this point. Pretty sure he’ll get big league time, but pessimistic about his chances at success. That could change with a big 2023.

He, like any of the big power bats, needs to find some hit tool to go along with (barely) adequate patience and big-time possible pop.

Out of all of them, I think Hinds might have the best chance of finding it, if only because he's shown (in longer spurs) that he can do it. His May was outstanding, for example. Allan Cerda, Austin Hendrick, Mat Nelson, Ruben Ibarra-- they're a type of bat the Reds have focused on for about five years now. That type tends to be relatively safe (in terms of making the major leagues), but it doesn't have a ton of upside (in terms of All-Star appearances). Hendrick might make me eat my words, as he's got speed I consistently undervalue and apparently might be able to stick in CF. If he can stick there, he won't have to hit as well as he would at a corner-- and his power might carry his bat, a la Drew Stubbs. Still, there's a clear floor there with all of these guys-- how low can you go in terms of BA and OBP before it's unacceptable? How high can their K rate be before you can't live with it any longer? These guys all have ruby red flaws, and I question how much value they'll carry.

Unless, of course, you can teach them how to hit.

Has anyone seen evidence that the Reds are good at that?

Yeah, me neither...

[mth123]

I think these guys succeed or fail on their own. The value of coaches is way overblown IMO. Players put in the time and players make the adjustments. The coach arranges for a batting practice pitcher or throws it himself and when the player succeeds they credit the coach. It makes a nice story, but Coaches don’t make the difference IMO. The organizations that consistently “develop” players do it because they are better at identifying players who are likely to succeed. It’s not because they do a better job arranging batting practice or finding a bullpen catcher.

[RedTeamGo!]

shortstop Matt McLain was rather disappointing, making poor-quality contact all week, although he has shown he can certainly distinguish balls from strikes, with 10 walks and five strikeouts in 36 plate appearances so far. He’s an above-average runner but definitely moves to second base …

Not great, Bob.