Reds 2022 Season Doomed Before It Began

[Strikes Out Looking]

Man. We are already getting it the Reds are ever good it’ll be luck takes.

Well it's not a coherent strategy that it's going to do it. I have no idea what their actual strategy is and if someone can tell me I'm all ears. As far as I can tell, it's to hope the young starters continue to improve, and the SS crew in the minors fill in all over the field. Of course that doesn't answer questions as to building a bullpen, change the offense from grip and rip to something that scores enough runs to win games or what happens when all these players, if successful, become arb-eligible (ie. too expensive for the owners to pay).

[Old school 1983]

Well it's not a coherent strategy that it's going to do it. I have no idea what their actual strategy is and if someone can tell me I'm all ears. As far as I can tell, it's to hope the young starters continue to improve, and the SS crew in the minors fill in all over the field. Of course that doesn't answer questions as to building a bullpen, change the offense from grip and rip to something that scores enough runs to win games or what happens when all these players, if successful, become arb-eligible (ie. too expensive for the owners to pay).

The strategy seems to be to trade your older established pieces for higher end prospects, combine those with the prospects and young MLB talent that’s here. While that develops, the payroll will be cleared by 2024. At that point, the younger talent will be more of a known and the Reds will have a lot of money to fill the holes in a targeted manner.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Reds have potential high end to elite…maybe even generational…talent on the MLB team.
The Reds have more projected high end or even elite talent coming.
The Reds will have a clean slate of payroll.

The issues are three-fold:

1. As currently constructed, the Reds don't have the depth of adequacy winning teams have. They have three starting pitchers who could be considered around league average or better. They have three relief arms (and perhaps as many as five-- if you're being generous) who might be league average. They have two or three (again, being generous) offensive players who profile as league average.

That's a lot of suck they have to overcome.

The good news is that those types of players are typically fairly cheap to acquires, and the Reds have a ton of cash they can spend.

2. But the problem with that is that they're depending on those prospects being elite, and most prospects-- even the very, very good ones-- are not. For the Reds to be competitive, De La Cruz (or another guy) has to become a Votto-like run producer. One of those guys has to be a Jay Bruce-like run producer. The last very good Red team was in 2012. It had an MVP-level Votto and three 120-ish OPS+ bats. Right now, the Reds have one of those-- Tyler Stephenson. They need two more near All-Stars and a MVP-level bat.

The good news is that they have the cash to pay for some of those things. They could, for example, hope to get lucky on the mound. Maybe they could shorten games with elite bullpen arms coming out of their system and deal with three solid to great SP and two question marks. That'd allow them to pay for a massive star (Trea Turner or Carlos Correa or Aaron Judge or Nolan Arenado or maybe Brandon Nimmo) on the offensive side of the ball and still add some depth as well (ie, Wil Myers or JD Martinez or Tyler Naquin or Joey Gallo or Jean Segura, et al). That'd require adding another bigger star next season via free agency (most likely) or perhaps getting lucky with EDLC or CES or another prospect.

And that's doable, for sure.

But...

3. The Reds have rarely done things this way.

Build from the farm? Yep. Been there, done that. Perpetually, it seems.

Free agency, however, isn't something Cincinnati has done-- good or bad-- since Andy Messersmith decided he wanted to be a Brave. They're going to have to spend payroll on players that aren't in the system-- and they're going to have to spend a lot of it. This isn't a time for working around the edges-- they're going to have to take a big swing here. When was the last time the Reds took a big swing?

Scott Rolen?

Dave Parker?

Tom Seaver?

[Jaysland Red]

I know Mark Sheldon on mlb.com has to find positives whenever he can (like talking up the guy who goes 1-3 in a 0-15 loss), but his headline about yesterday’s game made me laugh: “After tough '22, excitement building for Reds' future”. Perhaps we should a have a poll to assess the level of excitement on RedsZone?

[Ron Madden]

NM

[Bourgeois Zee]

Man. We are already getting it the Reds are ever good it’ll be luck takes.

Well, yeah.

Good teams need luck.

And teams who refuse to pay for good players need more luck than those who are willing to spend what they make.

For example, Tejay Antone almost assuredly needs to remain healthy if the Reds want a good bullpen in 2023. That's a product of preparation, development, and luck. Ditto Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft. Ditto India and Stephenson. The Reds can't afford to have any of those guys hurt. They need some prospects to develop more than they have already. That takes (again) coaching, development, work ethic, and luck.

Good bounces good fortune are often just as important as good coaching and good development if a team wins a pennant. Or even compete for one.

[Indymoon]

I have a hot take that Phil Castellini’s “where you gonna go” was misunderstood. I’m not defending him. He said the wrong thing in the wrong way on the wrong day. Utter failure to read the room, and the city. But he said a different wrong thing than what people assume.

He had said several things that fans could take to heart (some prompted by reporters trying to do damage control.) That the owners were reinvesting in the team. That it’s great to have three major league teams in the city competing with each other. And this one: “If you don’t win the fans don’t show up.” That could have been the headline to all those stories if he’d stopped there. It should be a sign above the door to the owners suites. And each owner should have to slap it on the way through Ted Lasso-style.

It went off the rails when he was asked about selling the team. His salty response was not right. But here’s what his “Where you gonna go” was about: He wasn’t speaking to the fans at the moment (problematic) but from the perspective of an owner selling the team. He was using the second person (problematic) “you.”

So what he meant was: “You want to sell the team. Where you gonna go. You’ll end up selling it to Nashville, Las Vegas or Charlotte, where they think they can make more profit in those markets. The fans don’t want that, and neither do we.”

It wasn’t a message to the fans, “you’re stuck with us,” it was “we’re here in Cincinnati with you doing the best we can.”

But he didn’t say it that way, and he talked profits at a time like this, and he brought up the specter of moving the team when everyone knows MLB isn’t going to do that. Again, I’m not defending him, I just think it was a different failure on the part of someone who speaks for the organization.

What I heard was "who else are you (the fans) going to cheer for?" One problem with that is that fans have other options for entertainment dollars and time.
I do agree with your quote above.

[Kc61]

I have a hot take that Phil Castellini’s “where you gonna go” was misunderstood. I’m not defending him. He said the wrong thing in the wrong way on the wrong day. Utter failure to read the room, and the city. But he said a different wrong thing than what people assume.

He had said several things that fans could take to heart (some prompted by reporters trying to do damage control.) That the owners were reinvesting in the team. That it’s great to have three major league teams in the city competing with each other. And this one: “If you don’t win the fans don’t show up.” That could have been the headline to all those stories if he’d stopped there. It should be a sign above the door to the owners suites. And each owner should have to slap it on the way through Ted Lasso-style.

It went off the rails when he was asked about selling the team. His salty response was not right. But here’s what his “Where you gonna go” was about: He wasn’t speaking to the fans at the moment (problematic) but from the perspective of an owner selling the team. He was using the second person (problematic) “you.”

So what he meant was: “You want to sell the team. Where you gonna go. You’ll end up selling it to Nashville, Las Vegas or Charlotte, where they think they can make more profit in those markets. The fans don’t want that, and neither do we.”

It wasn’t a message to the fans, “you’re stuck with us,” it was “we’re here in Cincinnati with you doing the best we can.”

But he didn’t say it that way, and he talked profits at a time like this, and he brought up the specter of moving the team when everyone knows MLB isn’t going to do that. Again, I’m not defending him, I just think it was a different failure on the part of someone who speaks for the organization.

Just hearing the words, here’s one interpretation: Reds have a captive audience of Cincy sports fans who have no alternative in baseball. And that audience should live with the ownership and market limitations because, in a sale, the team could be moved.

[westofyou]

Just hearing the words, here’s one interpretation: Reds have a captive audience of Cincy sports fans who have no alternative in baseball. And that audience should live with the ownership and market limitations because, in a sale, the team could be moved.

Which is just misinformation at its zenith. No team in MLB can pick up an leave like the NFL, it involves all the other owners and MLB. They certainly aren't going to let a ignorant rich boy grab his ball and take it to Nashville because he's peeved.

[Kc61]

The strategy seems to be to trade your older established pieces for higher end prospects, combine those with the prospects and young MLB talent that’s here. While that develops, the payroll will be cleared by 2024. At that point, the younger talent will be more of a known and the Reds will have a lot of money to fill the holes in a targeted manner.

It sounds very logical but will probably fail because the Reds will never go sufficiently big on the veteran side.

The prospect side always leaves big holes. You need to fill them with guys like Goldschmidt and Arenando, Or, if you’re the Braves, pay for two high level closers and Olsen etc.

Even if the Reds are lucky with prospects - and luck is required - they have not shown the ability or willingness to get and keep a winning group of veterans.

[Strikes Out Looking]

The strategy seems to be to trade your older established pieces for higher end prospects, combine those with the prospects and young MLB talent that’s here. While that develops, the payroll will be cleared by 2024. At that point, the younger talent will be more of a known and the Reds will have a lot of money to fill the holes in a targeted manner.

The only problem with this is 1. It's projection, they've never said that is what they are doing (realigning salary to resources can also be read as keeping salaries low and not paying market rates to fill in holes); 2. It doesn't fix the issues the Reds have with offensive strategy in the entire system - they need to figure out how to put balls in play - as we saw in the last month, the K's with runners on killed them; 3. They still don't seem to know how to build a consistent bullpen.

[RedTeamGo!]

Man. We are already getting it the Reds are ever good it’ll be luck takes.

I try to be as optimistic as I can, but I do not see how this team can be good under current ownership unless all the stars align and a good amount of luck.

[Powel Crosley]

I didn't think it was doomed, but obviously a lot of hope was lost after the spring training trades and releases. You have to wonder how the team would have performed if we kept all of those guys. We did play .500 ball after the 3-22 start until Mahle and Castillo were traded.

Playoffs are a stretch, but I can see where the Reds win 80-85 games next year. I figure on 2024 being the "going for it" year, but next year will hopefully be fun seeing the young guys mature and hopefully staying healthy. Newcomers like De La Cruz and Encarnacion-Strand should be positive contributors at some point. Add a mid-level starter or two (Miley, Syndergaard?) and next year's team doesn't seem so bad.

[Bob Sheed]

I'd say their plan is pretty transparent at this point.

They want to be just like the Guardians and Rays. Except instead of hiring highly qualified staff to get the job done, they are going to make it happen with a staff comprised of their Friends and Family Club.

So they aren't exactly in full-blown-milk-the-franchise mode like the Pirates. It's more of a passive "let's see if we can win this thing with our friends, family, and a shoestring budget to maximize profit. And if not, the franchise grows in value every year anyway.

I cancelled cable and stopped watching the Reds games in May. I started watching the Mariners shortly after. The Castellini and Williams families are killing this franchise. All for more money, short term.

Their ****ty business model only works with a captive audience. That's why the misunderstood "Where ya gonna go" hit home like it did.

Shame on them.

[RedTeamGo!]

I'd say their plan is pretty transparent at this point.

They want to be just like the Guardians and Rays. Except instead of hiring highly qualified staff to get the job done, they are going to make it happen with a staff comprised of their Friends and Family Club.

So they aren't exactly in full-blown-milk-the-franchise mode like the Pirates. It's more of a passive "let's see if we can win this thing with our friends, family, and a shoestring budget to maximize profit. And if not, the franchise grows in value every year anyway.

I cancelled cable and stopped watching the Reds games in May. I started watching the Mariners shortly after. The Castellini and Williams families are killing this franchise. All for more money, short term.

Their ****ty business model only works with a captive audience. That's why the misunderstood "Where ya gonna go" hit home like it did.

Shame on them.

I agree with the overall points, but was Krall a nepotism hire?

He is incompetent, but I thought he worked his way up?