Rather than directly trying to rank top prospects, I generally like to assign a letter grade or slot them into tiers to assess value. Here’s how I generally group players:
S-tier players are potential future superstars. These players generally possess a combination of elite athleticism, prospect pedigree, and outstanding performance. They are generally amongst the top 25 prospects in all of baseball.
A-tier players come in two flavors. They are either guys who have a chance to rocket into the S-tier based on pedigree but don’t yet have the history of professional performance to back it up, or they are players who have produced at every level in a sustained, elite manner regardless of limitations or lack of pedigree.
B-tier players have a really good shot at contributing to the major league team in the near future but lack the upside of the guys in the previous two tiers. Proximity to MLB and a high floor are weighted heavily in this grouping.
C-tier is everyone else.
Based on the above criteria, here’s how I would rank the Reds’ prospects:
S-Tier
Noelvi Marte
Elly De La Cruz
A-Tier
Cam Collier
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Edwin Arroyo
B-Tier
Matt McLain
Spencer Steer
Brandon Williamson
Levi Stoudt
Michael Siani
Looking at the leftover C-tier players, I think Chase Petty and Sal Stewart have the best chance to jump into one of the above groups next year. Those guys just have to keep doing what they’ve been doing as they move up through the ranks. For anyone else currently on the farm to make that jump, a major adjustment or two will likely be required on the part of the player.
Thoughts? Did I miss on anyone? I’m guessing some think Collier already belongs in the S-tier. I’m also sure there are some that might take issue with how I’m defining B-tier. As someone who values floor and proximity to the MLB, that bleeds into how I personally define this tier. I’m sure there are others who would rather toss some big time upside players into that group as well.