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Thread: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

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    Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Rather than directly trying to rank top prospects, I generally like to assign a letter grade or slot them into tiers to assess value. Here’s how I generally group players:

    S-tier players are potential future superstars. These players generally possess a combination of elite athleticism, prospect pedigree, and outstanding performance. They are generally amongst the top 25 prospects in all of baseball.

    A-tier players come in two flavors. They are either guys who have a chance to rocket into the S-tier based on pedigree but don’t yet have the history of professional performance to back it up, or they are players who have produced at every level in a sustained, elite manner regardless of limitations or lack of pedigree.

    B-tier players have a really good shot at contributing to the major league team in the near future but lack the upside of the guys in the previous two tiers. Proximity to MLB and a high floor are weighted heavily in this grouping.

    C-tier is everyone else.

    Based on the above criteria, here’s how I would rank the Reds’ prospects:

    S-Tier
    Noelvi Marte
    Elly De La Cruz

    A-Tier
    Cam Collier
    Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    Edwin Arroyo

    B-Tier
    Matt McLain
    Spencer Steer
    Brandon Williamson
    Levi Stoudt
    Michael Siani

    Looking at the leftover C-tier players, I think Chase Petty and Sal Stewart have the best chance to jump into one of the above groups next year. Those guys just have to keep doing what they’ve been doing as they move up through the ranks. For anyone else currently on the farm to make that jump, a major adjustment or two will likely be required on the part of the player.

    Thoughts? Did I miss on anyone? I’m guessing some think Collier already belongs in the S-tier. I’m also sure there are some that might take issue with how I’m defining B-tier. As someone who values floor and proximity to the MLB, that bleeds into how I personally define this tier. I’m sure there are others who would rather toss some big time upside players into that group as well.
    Last edited by Alpha Zero; 10-06-2022 at 02:36 PM.

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha Zero View Post
    Rather than directly trying to rank top prospects, I generally like to assign a letter grade or slot them into tiers to assess value. Here’s how I generally group players:

    S-tier players are potential future superstars. These players generally possess a combination of elite athleticism, prospect pedigree, and outstanding performance. They are generally amongst the top 25 prospects in all of baseball.

    A-tier players come in two flavors. They are either guys who have a chance to rocket into the S-tier based on pedigree but don’t yet have the history of professional performance to back it up, or they are players who have produced at every level in a sustained, elite manner regardless of limitations or lack of pedigree.

    B-tier players have a really good shot at contributing to the major league team in the near future but lack the upside of the guys in the previous two tiers. Proximity to MLB and a high floor are weighted heavily in this grouping.

    C-tier is everyone else.

    Based on the above criteria, here’s how I would rank the Reds’ prospects:

    S-Tier
    Noelvi Marte
    Ella De La Cruz

    A-Tier
    Cam Collier
    Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    Edwin Arroyo

    B-Tier
    Matt McLain
    Spencer Steer
    Brandon Williamson
    Levi Stoudt
    Michael Siani

    Looking at the leftover C-tier players, I think Chase Petty and Sal Stewart have the best chance to jump into one of the above groups next year. Those guys just have to keep doing what they’ve been doing as they move up through the ranks. For anyone else currently on the farm to make that jump, a major adjustment or two will likely be required on the part of the player.

    Thoughts? Did I miss on anyone? I’m guessing some think Collier already belongs in the S-tier. I’m also sure there are some that might take issue with how I’m defining B-tier. As someone who values floor and proximity to the MLB, that bleeds into how I personally define this tier. I’m sure there are others who would rather toss some big-time upside players into that group as well.
    This is pretty close to what I see as well. I might add Chase Petty and Joe Boyle to the B Tier now and maybe even Connor Phillips, I'd also probably jump McLain to the A Tier. The problem is all the S and A Teir prospects are position players. Its why Pitching is where I'd be spending my money this year while the position guys sort themselves out. The Reds will need at least one more impact starter and several impact relievers. Some of the relievers may come from the converted starter group in the b Tier, but I don't see an impact starting pitcher in the minors unless someone takes a huge leap forward.

    Your post lays it out perfectly.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    This is pretty close to what I see as well. I might add Chase Petty and Joe Boyle to the B Tier now and maybe even Connor Phillips, I'd also probably jump McLain to the A Tier. The problem is all the S and A Teir prospects are position players. Its why Pitching is where I'd be spending my money this year while the position guys sort themselves out. The Reds will need at least one more impact starter and several impact relievers. Some of the relievers may come from the converted starter group in the b Tier, but I don't see an impact starting pitcher in the minors unless someone takes a huge leap forward.

    Your post lays it out perfectly.
    I know BPA in the draft and all that, but it would be cool to find Lodolo 2.0 early in the 1st round in 2023 to help balance things. I do agree that a very good SP and 2 good relievers should be on the top of the shopping list in the off season.

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    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Connor Phillips should be B tier
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Connor Phillips should be B tier
    So should Joe Boyle.

    He's got closer stuff now and will be a back end of the bullpen guy. That'll help.

    He's also got upside to be (much) more.

    I'd also argue that if Levi Stoudt is B-tier, so is Andrew Abbott.

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    So should Joe Boyle.

    He's got closer stuff now and will be a back end of the bullpen guy. That'll help.

    He's also got upside to be (much) more.

    I'd also argue that if Levi Stoudt is B-tier, so is Andrew Abbott.
    He had Stoudt in there. Forgot about Abbott. Heck add Roa and Bonin too if you want. B Tier stands for Bullpen or whatever. I do think the reds will get a few good relievers from that group. Pessimistic about getting anything beyond Romanoesque starters though.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He had Stoudt in there. Forgot about Abbott. Heck add Roa and Bonin too if you want. B Tier stands for Bullpen or whatever. I do think the reds will get a few good relievers from that group. Pessimistic about getting anything beyond Romanoesque starters though.
    I know he had Stoudt. I said, "If Stoudt is a B-tier guy, so too should Abbott be a B-tier guy."

    B is real help, but not All-Star level, if I read the OP correctly. Contributors.

    This year, the Red bullpen had four of those, and one of those is a free agent. The rotation had three.

    If they get some "B-tier" bullpen guys, that will be a good thing.

    Btw, by the end of the year, the Red offense had three total.

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Man, I hate being an old cynical bastard. You guys are awfully optimistic about these players. Hope y’all can tell me I told you so.
    She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I know he had Stoudt. I said, "If Stoudt is a B-tier guy, so too should Abbott be a B-tier guy."

    B is real help, but not All-Star level, if I read the OP correctly. Contributors.

    This year, the Red bullpen had four of those, and one of those is a free agent. The rotation had three.

    If they get some "B-tier" bullpen guys, that will be a good thing.

    Btw, by the end of the year, the Red offense had three total.
    Yep. The red offense was awful the last two months. But the high end guys are De La Cruz, Marte, McLain and Encarnacion-strand who should all enter the picture next year. Votto and Stephenson will be back. I'd love to see the Reds go get a couple of middle of the order bats, but with those guys coming, I'm spending where I don't have my top guys coming.

    Again, if you're talking spending on low-budget stopgaps, spread it around - they need help everywhere. But, if you're talking making a significant multi-year investment on a guy who we think can be a major cog on the next winning team, a starting pitcher is the spot they probably aren't going to fill from within. So I spend that now, spend 2023 looking at these internal candidates (indluding guys like Steer, Friedl, Fairchild,,,) then figure out where to spend on offense next winter.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Man, I hate being an old cynical bastard. You guys are awfully optimistic about these players. Hope y’all can tell me I told you so.
    ??? The folks in this thread seem to think there are 5 legit major leaguers in the farm right now? How is that optimistic?
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    We disagree about the timing of the prospects mentioned, whether those prospects are likely to be above average offensive players immediately, and how many "top guys" are needed.

    The Reds already have three "top guys" in their rotation.

    They have one "top guy" in their everyday lineup-- and he's often not in the lineup due to injury and position.

    They need hitters desperately.

    They could use some more pitching.

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    So should Joe Boyle.

    He's got closer stuff now and will be a back end of the bullpen guy. That'll help.

    He's also got upside to be (much) more.

    I'd also argue that if Levi Stoudt is B-tier, so is Andrew Abbott.
    I can’t take Boyle or Phillips too seriously until they are able to push their BB/9 numbers south of 5.0. The stuff is there in both cases, but the control is not. That’s a major hurdle that needs to be cleared.

    I think you could definitely make a case for Abbott as a B-tier guy. Seems like he has a decent chance to be a back end starter or swing man type.

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha Zero View Post
    I can’t take Boyle or Phillips too seriously until they are able to push their BB/9 numbers south of 5.0. The stuff is there in both cases, but the control is not. That’s a major hurdle that needs to be cleared.

    I think you could definitely make a case for Abbott as a B-tier guy. Seems like he has a decent chance to be a back end starter or swing man type.
    Boyle gets some credit there because he's so, so hard to hit. Less than 5 H/9 limit the damage those BBs can do.

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Boyle gets some credit there because he's so, so hard to hit. Less than 5 H/9 limit the damage those BBs can do.
    Small sample caveat and all that, but once Boyle reached AA, his H/9 and BB/9 both jumped to 7.3 and 8.7, respectively. Need the see at least a little success at that level before I consider him a serious prospect. Love the stuff, but he has a lot of work to do.

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    Re: Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    ??? The folks in this thread seem to think there are 5 legit major leaguers in the farm right now? How is that optimistic?
    I was looking at below with 2 guys at superstar level and, if I read it correctly, 3 guys at what sounds like All-Star level. And 5 more that can produce positively for the big club. I’d call that optimistic.

    S-Tier
    Noelvi Marte
    Elly De La Cruz

    A-Tier
    Cam Collier
    Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    Edwin Arroyo

    B-Tier
    Matt McLain
    Spencer Steer
    Brandon Williamson
    Levi Stoudt
    Michael Siani
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