Grading the Farm (End of 2022 Edition)

[Bourgeois Zee]

I’d just note that CES - whom I like - has a troubling K/BB ratio. At Reds AA he struck out 26% and walked 4%. Slightly better with Twins AA.

Encarnacion-Strand's hit tool seems to be much, much better. Too, in A+, CES walked nearly 10% of the time.

[Kc61]

Encarnacion-Strand's hit tool seems to be much, much better. Too, in A+, CES walked nearly 10% of the time.

I’m always concerned with guys with big K/BB splits. CES did at both AA stops. Major league pitchers will take advantage.

CES does have near perfect batted ball distribution. His LD rate is probably unsustainably high. But I will give him credit there, helps with his BABIP and BA. MM a bit fly ball heavy, LD rate a bit low.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I’m always concerned with guys with big K/BB splits. CES did at both AA stops. Major league pitchers will take advantage.

CES does have near perfect batted ball distribution. His LD rate is probably unsustainably high. But I will give him credit there, helps with his BABIP and BA. MM a bit fly ball heavy, LD rate a bit low.

Big splits? His career K and BB ratios are pretty normal, IIRC. (EDIT: around 7:25)

Why are his LD rates unsustainable?

He's seemingly always hit the ball well and hard. In college too-- monster numbers. His exit velocities are among the best in minor league baseball, fwiw.

There's just not much there-- beyond pedigree-- to believe he'll stop hitting as well as he has.

[Kc61]

Big splits? His career K and BB ratios are pretty normal, IIRC. (EDIT: around 7:25)

Why are his LD rates unsustainable?

He's seemingly always hit the ball well and hard. In college too-- monster numbers. His exit velocities are among the best in minor league baseball, fwiw.

There's just not much there-- beyond pedigree-- to believe he'll stop hitting as well as he has.

Lifetime minor league stats include the lower levels. Look at AA. Big splits. An issue. (Also was an issue at low A.)

28% LD rate is off the charts. Joey Votto lifetime is 25%. 28% is higher than every qualified major leaguer this year (highest, Freemen 27.5). Very likely unsustainable as he advances.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Lifetime minor league stats include the lower levels. Look at AA. Big splits. An issue. (Also was an issue at low A.)

28% LD rate is off the charts. Joey Votto lifetime is 25%. 28% is higher than every qualified major leaguer this year (highest, Freemen 27.5). Very likely unsustainable as he advances.

Small samples abound.

And while he may not have a 28% LD rate, he will continue to hit the ball hard. That's a skill that's unlikely to drop significantly.

He won't hit .317 in the majors, but he'll probably hit above .280 with serious .500-.550 SLG. That in itself will allow him to OBP .350 (as pitchers pitch around him). A .280/.350/.500 hitter has monster value in today's game-- especially on a team that produced exactly none of them last year.

[Kc61]

Small samples abound.

And while he may not have a 28% LD rate, he will continue to hit the ball hard. That's a skill that's unlikely to drop significantly.

He won't hit .317 in the majors, but he'll probably hit above .280 with serious .500-.550 SLG. That in itself will allow him to OBP .350 (as pitchers pitch around him). A .280/.350/.500 hitter has monster value in today's game-- especially on a team that produced exactly none of them last year.

Every prospect rankings I’ve seen downgrades CES from his performance numbers. There’s concern about his longish swing and his defensive limitations. This includes MLB, BA, RedsMinorLeagues. So I’m not alone in having a wait and see attitude. I can’t deny that he’s crushed minor league pitching so far, so maybe it will all pan out. Hope so.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Every prospect rankings I’ve seen downgrades CES from his performance numbers. There’s concern about his longish swing and his defensive limitations.

Don't care much about prospect rankings and care not at all about defensive limitations when discussing the offense a prospect might possess.

I only saw one "long-ish swing" comment and that was an amateur scouting report from BP. Of the six I saw, five praised his swing as "thunderous", "to the point," and "good bat-to-ball skills." In short, I'm unworried about his swing mechanics. If there's a worry about his offensive game, it's that he'll chase pitches out of the zone. That said, he has enough power to still be of use. He's also already shown a penchant for tinkering postively with his swing. That shows me something, as does his willingness to learn from coaching.

I suspect CES is and will continue to be seriously underrated by national pundits.

[Kc61]

Don't care much about prospect rankings and care not at all about defensive limitations when discussing the offense a prospect might possess.

I only saw one "long-ish swing" comment and that was an amateur scouting report from BP. Of the six I saw, five praised his swing as "thunderous", "to the point," and "good bat-to-ball skills." In short, I'm unworried about his swing mechanics. If there's a worry about his offensive game, it's that he'll chase pitches out of the zone. That said, he has enough power to still be of use. He's also already shown a penchant for tinkering postively with his swing. That shows me something, as does his willingness to learn from coaching.

I suspect CES is and will continue to be seriously underrated by national pundits.

I didn’t read BP, saw the long swing comment elsewhere. But the main concern would be a 4% walk rate at AA with a fairly high K rate. That’s a red flag, a lack of patience, MLB pitchers will take advantage of that. Whether he’s being seriously underrated - or the subject of legitimate concern- we’ll find out soon enough.

[Redhook]

I’ll take CES 10 times out of 10 over McLain. McLain has a chance to be a decent MLB player. CES’ defense might be suspect, but that dude will hit like a poor man’s Edgar Martinez. I’d be very surprised if his OPS is under .825.

[Patrick Bateman]

I think a lot of the guys being described as B tier are more C.

I think C is like that fangraphs 40/45 range. Reds have tons of them. Some will hit and really well. Just don’t know who. Cast a wide net.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Betterread]

A prospects - Marte, EDLC
A- prospects - Collier, Steer, CES
B+ prospects - Arroyo, McClain, Williamson
B prospects - Stoudt, Petty, Stewart
(Hard for me to grade. Prospects with serious athleticism, and some interesting numbers, but also serious flaws) - Boyle, Phillips, Hinds, Hendrick

[Kc61]

So, I’ve already said that McClain should be in the second group. Still feel that way, recognizing good points made in the discussion by all involved.

I also believe that Collier should be in the top group. I know he’s far from the majors. But his youth is a benefit, not a detriment. This guy could be in the majors at age 20. His numbers at complex ball, small sample, were tremendous.

[Bourgeois Zee]

So, I’ve already said that McClain should be in the second group. Still feel that way, recognizing good points made in the discussion by all involved.

I also believe that Collier should be in the top group. I know he’s far from the majors. But his youth is a benefit, not a detriment. This guy could be in the majors at age 20. His numbers at complex ball, small sample, were tremendous.

Interesting.

I guess I have a bias against players in Complex Ball-- the numbers often mean nothing due to small samples and the guys who are pitching against them. For example, based on numbers and age, Carlos Jorge should be in the discussion as an A prospect. His professional career line is special-- .309/ .422/ .558/ .980. Add in the 50+ SB in less than 90 games. Add in an insane BB rate (14.5%). Oh, he'll be 19 nearly all of next season in low A Daytona (and perhaps higher). He plays in the middle of the field (2B) and moved from SS, indicating he has a good arm. Second in the ACL in slugging percentage, 10 HR in less than 250 ABs, a K rate below 25%-- all of these assay a top-flight prospect.

But it's only 300 or so PAs. And tons of guys have struggled after being a monster at that level.

I think Collier's a very, very good prospect, but he's almost too far away to judge on this scale (at least for me). The same goes for Jorge, Sal Stewart, Johnny Ascanio, Leonardo Balcazar, Donovan Antonia, Ariel Almonte, Hector Rodriguez, and (to a lesser extent) 2021's ACL MVP Yerlin Confidan.

The relative good news is that Collier is set up to move fairly quickly. If he hits in Daytona like he did in Arizona, he could be moved quickly to Dayton. There's no one there to stand in the way. I think you're right, KC, in believing that it's possible Collier makes the majors by age 20. That's typically the mark of a perennial All-Star and often a Hall of Famer.

Suffice the say, the Reds have some intriguing talent moving through the pipeline in Daytona, and I'll be very interested to see how it does.

[MikeS21]

The key for the Reds is deciding which prospects to keep at their natural positions, which prospects to move to other positions that they will succeed, and which prospects to trade for pitching.

[Betterread]

The key for the Reds is deciding which prospects to keep at their natural positions, which prospects to move to other positions that they will succeed, and which prospects to trade for pitching.

The key for the Reds is bringing in talent that they can teach and develop Major League skills, winning mentality and physical strength and durability. They need to bring in more hitters who make solid, consistent contact because they don’t seem to be able to teach it.
They need to bring in more pitchers who have good command and can throw strickes to begin with, beucase they don’t seem to be able to teach those things.