Early Nick Krall on 2023

[REDREAD]

Except, unlike 15-18, the Reds have real elite and high end prospects coming from the minors and ones that have already graduated to the MLB level developing and improving. The Reds are rebuilding. Rome wasn’t built in a day. You aren’t going from 100 loses to winner in one season in most situations. His statements seemed pretty clear. They will try to improve by bringing in older guys to shorter term deals and by years end likely be a younger team, and likely better with high end prospects joining the big club. Seems pretty clear of a plan to me.

We thought we had elite talent in the pipeline in the last rebuild too.
REmember when Robert Stephenson and Amir Garett were future aces?
Lorenzen looked good, we had the 3 pitchers from the Cueto trade.
We had all those high first round draft picks (most of whom are on the team now)
Winker was a prospect in 2015, but he was "too expensive" at 7 million/year to keep..
Some guys had hope for Schelber, Peraza (top 100 guy in the ratings), traviso, Ervin, Romano, and others.
Trammel was highly rated.. gone in a trade, but he was another guy in the pipeline.
Inglesis was also a prospect, again "Too expensive".. as was Disco and Mahle (prospects from that time period).
Tyler Stephenson was drafted in 2015.

In 2017, 11 prospects were rated higher than Castillo on one list I saw.. That seems to imply a loaded system.
Friedl was another guy people were high on.
Shed Long and Jeter Downs were also on the prospect lists in that period.
Rainey was in the system.
TJ Anton was in the system too.
India was drafted in 2018


I am sorry, but I don't see how the current farm system is better than 2015-2018.. The Reds' farm was ranked pretty highly in that time period too. There was lots of optimism
It's not accurate to say that we didn't have any elite/high end prospects back then. I am not saying that today's farm system is worse than 2015-18, but it's not significantly better.

[REDREAD]

Young talent is on the way “story.” The Reds graduated 2 pitchers who both have ace potential. One generational talent potential. Lodolo pitched like an ace in the second half and Greene wasn’t far behind him after he returned from the DL. They graduated what looks like a solid rotation piece in Ashcraft. They have the reigning ROY at 2b. They have the best hitting young catcher in the game. Fraley has developed into an extremely solid bat. They have an electric young closer in Diaz

They have what should likely be the top prospect in baseball in EDLC in the high minors. They have a high round draft choice in McLain at AAA. They have a guy who nearly OPSd 1.000 in CES in the high minors. They have elite prospect Marte who will be graduating to the high minors this coming year. They have top prospect Collier likely hitting A ball. Top prospect Arroyo hitting high A.

They have Stoudt and Williamson in AAA. They still have Dunn in the system.

Phillips and Petty don’t look to shabby. Abbott may be something as well.

They have high octane guys like Boyle that could develop to back of the pen pieces too.

And that list isn’t everyone. The Reds having help coming isn’t some sort of a con story.

Yes, the Reds have 6 nice young players to build around.. They need about another 14-18 new players to be competitive. The farm will hopefully supply some, but not all.
Look at the other post I made, the Reds were loaded in the last rebuild too, and the team still had to spend a ton of money in FA just to get the team over 500.

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That money is going to be spent on stop gaps or it’s going to be spent on Phil’s third house. The Reds have never shown that money not spent one year gets saved and then spent the next year.

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He said it here:

I was repeating the same quote you did earlier.
Let's hope he tries to make some improvements. I am very skeptical. This is the guy that thought Solano, Pham and Minor would improve the team last year.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Except, unlike 15-18, the Reds have real elite and high end prospects coming from the minors and ones that have already graduated to the MLB level developing and improving. The Reds are rebuilding. Rome wasn’t built in a day. You aren’t going from 100 loses to winner in one season in most situations. His statements seemed pretty clear. They will try to improve by bringing in older guys to shorter term deals and by years end likely be a younger team, and likely better with high end prospects joining the big club. Seems pretty clear of a plan to me.

Here's the problem - there is no plan for those prospects who are offensive players (non-pitchers) to be sustainable every day MLB players. How does the cadre of SS's learn 1. to play other positions other than SS (last I looked you could only have 1 at a time in the field) and 2. learn to make contact on a consistent basis (i.e. not be Aquino/Barrero in the MLB). They fired Zinter, but who else in the organization teaches hitting - I really like Elly De La Cruz, but before he sniffs the big leagues I want to see him cut down on his K's at AAA before coming up - its way harder to learn that at the MLB level.

I also don't think the Reds realize that there are 29 franchise doing the same thing and some do it way better than they do for numerous reasons (such as spending real dollars on analysts, not hiring family members to do pivotal things, firing people when they aren't successful earlier etc...).

And remember, that arbitration clock on India and Stevenson is ticking...

[Old school 1983]

We thought we had elite talent in the pipeline in the last rebuild too.
REmember when Robert Stephenson and Amir Garett were future aces?
Lorenzen looked good, we had the 3 pitchers from the Cueto trade.
We had all those high first round draft picks (most of whom are on the team now)
Winker was a prospect in 2015, but he was "too expensive" at 7 million/year to keep..
Some guys had hope for Schelber, Peraza (top 100 guy in the ratings), traviso, Ervin, Romano, and others.
Trammel was highly rated.. gone in a trade, but he was another guy in the pipeline.
Inglesis was also a prospect, again "Too expensive".. as was Disco and Mahle (prospects from that time period).
Tyler Stephenson was drafted in 2015.

In 2017, 11 prospects were rated higher than Castillo on one list I saw.. That seems to imply a loaded system.
Friedl was another guy people were high on.
Shed Long and Jeter Downs were also on the prospect lists in that period.
Rainey was in the system.
TJ Anton was in the system too.
India was drafted in 2018


I am sorry, but I don't see how the current farm system is better than 2015-2018.. The Reds' farm was ranked pretty highly in that time period too. There was lots of optimism
It's not accurate to say that we didn't have any elite/high end prospects back then. I am not saying that today's farm system is worse than 2015-18, but it's not significantly better.

Remember when Stephenson or Garret pitched any way that resembled Ashcraft let alone Lodolo or Greene? Me either

I do remember all those high picks. India and Stephenson say hello. As do Greene and Lodolo. Senzel looks like he busted. Crap happens.

Remember when Lorenzen looks as good as Diaz…or Antone? I don’t.

Remember any of those guys you mentioned the Reds acquired in trades being anywhere near the quality of prospects as the one acquired this deadline? I don’t.

Remember any prospect in the pipe line then being as good as EDLC? I don’t.

The Reds never had a player named Inglesias.

The Reds current state team has more talent than the group after 2015 was torn down. The Reds have stronger prospects now too. They will have to add from the outside, yes. That goes without saying. There’s more development left in some of these guys. And next year the salary will be a blank slate. IMO things will get interesting about the trade deadline of next year. The Sorting will be clearer. The Reds will have money. Will be able to deal to both add to the system and the mob club. .

[Old school 1983]

Here's the problem - there is no plan for those prospects who are offensive players (non-pitchers) to be sustainable every day MLB players. How does the cadre of SS's learn 1. to play other positions other than SS (last I looked you could only have 1 at a time in the field) and 2. learn to make contact on a consistent basis (i.e. not be Aquino/Barrero in the MLB). They fired Zinter, but who else in the organization teaches hitting - I really like Elly De La Cruz, but before he sniffs the big leagues I want to see him cut down on his K's at AAA before coming up - its way harder to learn that at the MLB level.

I also don't think the Reds realize that there are 29 franchise doing the same thing and some do it way better than they do for numerous reasons (such as spending real dollars on analysts, not hiring family members to do pivotal things, firing people when they aren't successful earlier etc...).

And remember, that arbitration clock on India and Stevenson is ticking...

Last I looked, if you could play SS, you’re athletic enough to pretty much play any other position. That’s a non starter.

I agree on EDLC.

Ok the arb clock is starting. The Reds will have a blank payroll stating in 2024. If India and Stephenson don’t look like cornerstone type players, trade then and refresh the system and let née guys enter.

[TN Reds]

They have a made a decision on a plan going forward!
We have not really been factor since 2012!
Ownership did spend (although poorly) in 2020!
We will never be on par spending like the Yankees or Dodgers!
Fans, Players, and Ownership eventually need to be on same page!
As a fan give them a chance!

[Kc61]

Last I looked, if you could play SS, you’re athletic enough to pretty much play any other position. That’s a non starter.

I agree on EDLC.

Ok the arb clock is starting. The Reds will have a blank payroll stating in 2024. If India and Stephenson don’t look like cornerstone type players, trade then and refresh the system and let née guys enter.

I don’t think the shortstop thing is a non-starter. IMO it’s not wise for Reds to keep all these guys at shortstop indefinitely. Which is what they seem to be doing.

They don’t seem to want to make decisions, but you want proficient defenders. I agree they have the athleticism to move, mostly, but I’d like to see them start this process sooner and start getting reps and learning the new spots.

[757690]

Goldsmith with more from Krall. Interpret as you like.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...3/69545928007/

One year ago, when Cincinnati Reds general manager Nick Krall set the stage for an offseason where a playoff contender was torn down, Krall said the offseason heading into 2022 would be about “aligning our payroll to our resources.”

After the Reds finished the 2022 season with a 62-100 record, this offseason is all about development and competition.

Fixing the problems that led to 100 losses

Krall: “I think the pitching staff, they were about league average overall. I mean, our position players really struggled. When you look across whatever, outs above average, any advanced metrics, we were roughly last or second to last in infield defense, baserunning, offense. Across the board, we need to get better in a lot of different areas. I don’t think it’s just one area here or there.”

Setting expectations for the offseason

Krall: “I think in the long-term, especially, development is how we have to go. We have to continue to get better and continue to have a good foundation in our minor leagues to be able to produce quality big-league players.”

Avoiding rushing players to the big leagues

Krall: “We’ve seen over the last 20 years that we need to make sure we develop players until when they’re ready. They’re going to tell us they’re ready. They’re going to get to the big leagues. We need to make sure they are ready to come up to the big leagues, where they’re not trying to keep their head above water. When you’re trying to keep your head above water, you’re not developing.”

[Old school 1983]

I don’t think the shortstop thing is a non-starter. IMO it’s not wise for Reds to keep all these guys at shortstop indefinitely. Which is what they seem to be doing.

They don’t seem to want to make decisions, but you want proficient defenders. I agree they have the athleticism to move, mostly, but I’d like to see them start this process sooner and start getting reps and learning the new spots.

I think the sorting starts once the Reds have a legit MLB SS that sticks. I think that happens next year.

[Bob Sheed]

Reds ownership is essentially holding the franchise hostage at this point.

The level of "shameful" that someone has to be, to essentially profit off of making a product terrible that people root for... Off the charts.
This business model only works when you have a captive audience. A monopoly. If you grew up a Red fan, there's nowhere else to go.

Truly awful, awful people. Right out of the 1990s Mike Brown playbook.

[RiverRat13]

The plan itself is the same one that the Guardians, Brewers, A’s and Rays have followed to much success. It’s a smart plan for a team that decides to have the payroll it has. It only leads to more rebuilding if the Reds change plans, which they have done often.

If the Reds stick to the plan, and execute it properly, it should succeed. I am not confident in either of those two “ifs” however.

How does it lead to more rebuilding???? The Reds traded absolutely no one of significance in 2020. There’s not a single guy that makes us mad because they aren’t a Red anymore. How did changing plans to try to actually field a quality MLB team lead to more rebuilding?

Do you know why they had to use trades and free agency to field a quality MLB team? Because they can’t draft and develop their own players! And now you’re telling us the smart plan is to concentrate on drafting and developing their own players. Great plan! As if it’s impossible to both improve your big league club and develop players at the same time. Do you know how dumb that sounds?

I get and agree with the idea that they waited too long to deal Cueto and Frazier. But that’s ancient history now. And dealing those guys a year earlier would have helped, but no return would have made the Reds contenders. They were still doomed to be terrible in 2016-2019 because they can’t draft and develop.

The plan is to save money and hope to field a passable team every so often. Full stop. Bob decided to stop being a sucker. He has no ability to lead a winning franchise, so he might as well lead a profitable one. He can take revenue sharing dollars and not reinvest into the team like Pittsburgh does. If the plan was to mirror the Rays, then Bob, Phil, and the rest of ownership would clean house and spend money to steal as much of infrastructure they could from Tampa, Cleveland, and Oakland. But that’s not what’s going to happen. The financial bottom line is the plan and on the field success would be a happy coincidence.

[mth123]

That money is going to be spent on stop gaps or it’s going to be spent on Phil’s third house. The Reds have never shown that money not spent one year gets saved and then spent the next year.

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He said it here:

Don't understand that logic. Instead of spending on a stopgap this winter, spend on a long-term solution this winter. Stopgaps equal perpetual rebuild

[757690]

How does it lead to more rebuilding???? The Reds traded absolutely no one of significance in 2020. There’s not a single guy that makes us mad because they aren’t a Red anymore. How did changing plans to try to actually field a quality MLB team lead to more rebuilding?

Do you know why they had to use trades and free agency to field a quality MLB team? Because they can’t draft and develop their own players! And now you’re telling us the smart plan is to concentrate on drafting and developing their own players. Great plan! As if it’s impossible to both improve your big league club and develop players at the same time. Do you know how dumb that sounds?

I get and agree with the idea that they waited too long to deal Cueto and Frazier. But that’s ancient history now. And dealing those guys a year earlier would have helped, but no return would have made the Reds contenders. They were still doomed to be terrible in 2016-2019 because they can’t draft and develop.

The plan is to save money and hope to field a passable team every so often. Full stop. Bob decided to stop being a sucker. He has no ability to lead a winning franchise, so he might as well lead a profitable one. He can take revenue sharing dollars and not reinvest into the team like Pittsburgh does. If the plan was to mirror the Rays, then Bob, Phil, and the rest of ownership would clean house and spend money to steal as much of infrastructure they could from Tampa, Cleveland, and Oakland. But that’s not what’s going to happen. The financial bottom line is the plan and on the field success would be a happy coincidence.

Who are you arguing against? Read my post. I'll quote it for you:

"If the Reds stick to the plan, and execute it properly, it should succeed. I am not confident in either of those two “ifs” however."

I also said this, which agrees with what you posted

It easy to do both. Add talent on short term contracts, while not trading away prospects to help the MLB team.

My guess is that it will be similar to this past off-season. Adding guys like Pham and Solano (hopefully not like Minor and Strickland) and playing as many young guys as possible.

What they won’t do is do what they did in 2019-2020, trade a bunch of prospects for short term MLB talent, or sign anyone to long term contracts.

We are on pretty much the same page.

[757690]

Don't understand that logic. Instead of spending on a stopgap this winter, spend on a long-term solution this winter. Stopgaps equal perpetual rebuild

I thought you wanted to avoid spending the money all together. My apologies for not understanding.

However, there are times and players that you want to sign to one year deals and players you want to sign to 2-3 year deals. I hope they don’t go beyond 3 years on anyone.

Generally, rebuilding years are time to sign guys to one year deals, to hold the place for prospects that are developing. 2023 is one of those years.

[RedsBaron]

If you grew up a Red fan, there's nowhere else to go.

Reds fans may have nowhere else to go to, but they do have an option as to a place not to go to: Great American Ballpark. Attendance in 2022 was about 1,000,000 less than in 2013.