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Thread: State of the Farm: Corner Infielders

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    State of the Farm: Corner Infielders

    TL;DR: This could be fun. Like, for real for real. Lots of talent, lots of it intriguing. Big pop, good gloves. Deeeeeeep. Three possible All-Stars and a bunch of depth.

    Top 10 Corner Infield Prospects:

    1. Noelvi Marte
    Newly moved off SS, Marte is trying 3B in the AFL. He's got power for days and good speed. Might well end up a 30/20 guy at the major league level with upside for more. Marte's very young for his level and performing well. After the deal with Seattle, he went .293/ .397/ .443/ .840 in less than 130 PAs. Lots of patience and not many Ks also bodes well for his development. He's an odd prospect, in that he's got a high floor and a higher ceiling. As a former SS, his defense should be good, but we'll have to see-- as a SS, he was a fine 3B. One of the top prospects in the game.

    2. Cam Collier
    Collier's also unique-- he's very, very young and hit very, very well. It was also very, very limited. Collier did nothing to suggest he wasn't a top prospect in the game in his first professional foray. His father (Lou) should help in that regard. According to scouting reports, he has both a solid idea of what to do with the bat and tools with which to do it. He also profiles to be an excellent defender. Collier could move quickly. If so, his youth might well see him in the majors by age 20. That would auger very, very well for his future. Notice all the very's? Well, he's a very, very good prospect.

    3. Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    This is the third of three possible All-Star level corner guys the Reds are developing. That's remarkable, considering none of them were with the team when 2022 began. Encarnacion-Strand's been a production over pedigree bat for a couple of minor league seasons, putting up MVP-like numbers across multiple levels. The knock on him is his defense. Most scouting services praise his short, thunderous swing but question his approach. The hit tool is apparent-- he's been a .300 hitter pretty much wherever he's been. His defensive reports have been positive too, fwiw. That said, it's unlikely he plays 3B much in Cincinnati-- Marte is immediately behind him, Steer is immediately in front of him, and some combination of EDLC, McLain, and Ivan Johnson are around him too. That's okay-- he's probably going to hit like a 1B anyway. Reminds me of Nick Esasky.

    4. Tyler Callihan
    Struggled with where to put the next two prospects. Callihan has seemingly been around forever, yet he's only 22. Callihan moved two levels in 2022 and was probably the Tortuga's best overall hitter. He's shown suprisingly solid punch and a solid idea of hitting. I suspect he'll be a Dragon at the begining of 2023 and move up at the halfway point (or whenever Marte moves to Louisville). Kid's going to get his shot, I think, and likely will be a solid hitter when he gets there. Underrated speed might be one way he helps.

    5. Sal Stewart
    The Reds nabbed two corner guys high in the 2022 draft. Stewart's the second one. He and Collier shared the hot corner in the AFL and will probably do the same in Daytona. He may also play some 1B and DH as well. Stewart's got some pop in his bat and looks a lot like Yonder Alonso (who was his mentor in high school). Scouts aren't sure if he's a 3B or 1B, but he'll get a shot to show off his 60 arm. Daytona might have a sneaky good team in 2023.

    6. Alex McGarry
    McGarry came out of nowhere to blast a bunch of round trippers on his way from Dayton to Chattanooga to Louisville. .264/ .316/ .543/ .860 is a fine line, though obviously he could use more patience at the plate. That slugging percentage should play regardless. McGarry looks more like a spare part of a depth piece than the five above him, but he's a fine depth piece to have. Most teams can't go five deep on the corners. If he's spotted well, I suspect McGarry could carve out a Brandon Dixon-like career as a corner OF/ 1B/ DH. He's 25 and old for his league, though the three level jump alleviated most of those concerns.

    7. Nick Quintana
    The return in the Tucker Barnhart deal, Quintana hadn't shown anything in two years, then played pretty well for Dayton last year. He was among their most consistent hitters in 2022. Then he was moved to Chattanooga (as a 24-year-old, it made sense) and struggled. He'll get a second chance, probably as a utility guy. He can play 2B too. I like his patience, but he's a depth piece at best.

    8. Ruben Ibarra
    Went nuts for Daytona, then couldnt handle Dayton before a season-ending injury did him in. He'll get a second chance at making a good first impression for the Dragons in 2023. Love his college numbers and power. Love that he's a 300 lb. dude mashing the ball with ridiculous athleticism. Might be more. Probably not, though.

    9. Yassel Pino
    The Reds thought enough of him to move him up to low A at 19. That says something. He hit well in the ACL in 2021. Doesn't seem to K all that much. Willing to take a walk. Low BA. At this point, he's a lottery ticket. One to follow, at any rate. Look for Pino to play in Daytona with a solid group of prospects. He might suprise.

    10. Austin Callahan
    Callahan was, for a time, the best hitter in Daytona. He cooled off at the end of the long season, his first real professional season. He's an 18th round draft pick, so the deck's stacked against him, but the kid just kept hitting. He wasn't overmatched at the plate, and that .420 slugging percentage might auger well in the more forgiving Midwest League. the 21-year-old showed a 110 wRC+ bat. He keeps doing that, and someone will find a place for him, at any rate.

    Deep Sleeper:
    Francisco Urbaez
    Yeah, I know. He's a 3B only because there are people ahead of him in AA. And he got hurt after less than 200 PAs this season. But he's a good hitter. Urbaez has an excellent BB rate and an even better K rate. He's learning to hit the ball with more authority without losing his batting eye. He's also 24-- I think the guy's got a chance at being a decent depth/ utility player/ DH short-side platoon, but I'm a sucker for a hit over K guy. He's fun to root for, at any rate, and might eventually get a cup of coffee somewhere without embarassing himself.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Farm: Corner Infielders

    I think Alex McGarry is the sleeper on this list. He's a lefty bat who put up and .894 OPS vs RHP in 323 PAs in 2022. Long side of a DH platoon with Stephenson handling DH duties against LHP (to get him some rest when not catching) seems like an idea. With Christain-Encarnacion-Strand being a RH bat, there is some synergy there.

    I know the Reds just moved Marte to 3B, but with India and Steer on hand and Collier coming behind him (India would be my 3B effective immediately), I'd move Marte to RF and look to have him in the majors after the All Star break.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Rick Palmer (10-12-2022)

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    Re: State of the Farm: Corner Infielders

    McGarry is an interesting case. I have three screens I like to use for hitters, and McGarry does well on two of these and is close on a third. Not meeting them doesn't mean a player won't be successful, but meeting them usually marks somebody as very likely to succeed at the next level--which, for McG, is still AAA. Mc Garry compensated for a too high K rate at Chatt (73 in 256 PA) through his XBH numbers. He got more than 40% of his hits for XBH (Screen number 1): 30XBH out of 61 hits; he got an XBH at a rate greater than 1 in 9 AB: 30 in 238, a quite high number (Screen 2); and he got 41 RBI in 238 AB, which does not meet the 1 in 5 test but is still pretty good. I know RBI is considered a team statistic by the cognoscenti, but I think that's not completely the case. Players get more RBIs if opponents position them deeply and opponents do that because they expect them to hit the ball hard. I'll be really interested to see what he does at AAA. Lefty power is always to be respected.

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    Re: State of the Farm: Corner Infielders

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    McGarry is an interesting case. I have three screens I like to use for hitters, and McGarry does well on two of these and is close on a third. Not meeting them doesn't mean a player won't be successful, but meeting them usually marks somebody as very likely to succeed at the next level--which, for McG, is still AAA. Mc Garry compensated for a too high K rate at Chatt (73 in 256 PA) through his XBH numbers. He got more than 40% of his hits for XBH (Screen number 1): 30XBH out of 61 hits; he got an XBH at a rate greater than 1 in 9 AB: 30 in 238, a quite high number (Screen 2); and he got 41 RBI in 238 AB, which does not meet the 1 in 5 test but is still pretty good. I know RBI is considered a team statistic by the cognoscenti, but I think that's not completely the case. Players get more RBIs if opponents position them deeply and opponents do that because they expect them to hit the ball hard. I'll be really interested to see what he does at AAA. Lefty power is always to be respected.
    The obvious red flag with McGarry is 136 Ks versus 28 BB. Good chance big league pitchers make him look silly. But that's why he's a sleeper, With the power he shows coupled with a still decent BA, if the K/BB thing wasn't an issue, he'd be among the Reds top 10 prospects.

    This year McGarry Ked 91 times vs 22 BBs against RHP (4.13 to 1). Against LHP he Ked 45 times against 6 BB (7.5 to 1).
    Last edited by mth123; 10-11-2022 at 11:45 AM.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    HokieRed (10-11-2022)

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    Re: State of the Farm: Corner Infielders

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The obvious red flag with McGarry is 136 Ks versus 28 BB. Good chance big league pitchers make him look silly. But that's why he's a sleeper, With the power he shows coupled with a still decent BA, if the K/BB thing wasn't an issue, he'd be among the Reds top 10 prospects.

    This year McGarry Ked 91 times vs 22 BBs against RHP (4.13 to 1). Against LHP he Ked 45 times against 6 BB (7.5 to 1).
    Right Question is whether his XBH can compensate for his K rates. I'd say that this year at Chatt it did. We'll see what next year brings. His upside may be to be a platoon guy--or maybe not that. Louisville will tell us more.


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