2023 Free Agent Targets: The Case for Michael Conforto

[HokieRed]

We're going to find out over the next six months but I'd bet...

He's not getting multiple years, he's signing a one year deal to show that his shoulder isn't complete toast and can hold up for a season - probably going to play a lot of DH in 2022 and sit a bunch against lefthanders too.

And he's not getting 26M$ either.

If he finishes the 2022 season healthy and hitting well then he's signing for big money big years.

I may have been unclear about the Canha contract. It's 13+ each year, 26.5 for the two years. It'll be interesting to see how the Conforto free agency breaks. I could see him going the one year, prove-himself route or taking a multi-year deal right away. I think there are enough players with plenty of money to offer him on a multi-year deal. His age is a factor I think and there's risk for him. If he has another mediocre year, or is more bogged down by the injury than expected, his value at 31 for a multiple year contract is going to be severely reduced. GABP and a Castellanos-style contract might be kinds of insurance he'd find attractive.

[Kingspoint]

Why?

You can always deal him, and the Reds have PLENTY of cash to spend. Might as well spend it on quality over quantity.

If you have cash to spend, you need to try to turn it into appreciable assets, unless you are ready to win now.

[Redsfan6272]

If I am Conforto, Cincinnati is not even on my list..

[Bourgeois Zee]

If I am Conforto, Cincinnati is not even on my list..

An automatic starting berth in a ballpark conducive for putting up monster offensive numbers, as many PAs as he can stand, and at the position of his choice, all while hitting third in the lineup. Then, if he hits well, a nearly guaranteed trade to a team who is competing for a playoff spot.

It'd be on my list, for sure.

[Roy Tucker]

An automatic starting berth in a ballpark conducive for putting up monster offensive numbers, as many PAs as he can stand, and at the position of his choice, all while hitting third in the lineup. Then, if he hits well, a nearly guaranteed trade to a team who is competing for a playoff spot.

It'd be on my list, for sure.

This may be the right thing to do for the Reds, but it’s also depressing. At least for me. But where else am I going to go.

This contract would need to be multi year in order for a trade to result in a good young player. A single year won’t result in much. But it also just perpetuates the hamster rolling wheel the Reds are on.

[Rojo Rijo]

An automatic starting berth in a ballpark conducive for putting up monster offensive numbers, as many PAs as he can stand, and at the position of his choice, all while hitting third in the lineup. Then, if he hits well, a nearly guaranteed trade to a team who is competing for a playoff spot.

It'd be on my list, for sure.

I'm sure it will be on his list but in the same approach to his FA he'll consider the negatives of playing for certain teams. Joining Cincinnati is joining a bottom feeder who just sold almost their entire veteran presence who offers little lineup protection beyond a 3rd year India who scuffed and was injured in year 2, a injury prone Stephenson in only his 3rd year, and a future HOF lefty who is in the twilight of his career. Sure there is a lot the Reds have to offer but it's a situation that could also destroy his value if it doesnt go well. The Reds arent built to compete in 2023 so he'd be joining a team more focused on development than maximizing its assets to win.

The Reds would have to outbid any decent non bottom feeder small market team by a considerable amount to obtain his services.

This also only addresses one side of the proposed deal. Why should the Reds be interested in spending 15+ million on a player who is not going to be part of a winning window?

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm sure it will be on his list but in the same approach to his FA he'll consider the negatives of playing for certain teams. Joining Cincinnati is joining a bottom feeder who just sold almost their entire veteran presence who offers little lineup protection beyond a 3rd year India who scuffed and was injured in year 2, a injury prone Stephenson in only his 3rd year, and a future HOF lefty who is in the twilight of his career. Sure there is a lot the Reds have to offer but it's a situation that could also destroy his value if it doesnt go well. The Reds arent built to compete in 2023 so he'd be joining a team more focused on development than maximizing its assets to win.

The Reds would have to outbid any decent non bottom feeder small market team by a considerable amount to obtain his services.

This also only addresses one side of the proposed deal. Why should the Reds be interested in spending 15+ million on a player who is not going to be part of a winning window?

I don't think you can say this from the evidence you provided.

Let's use actual teams. The Angels are going to be a better team than the Reds. They have two really, really good hitters on their team and a third who, if healthy, should be. They have better, readier prospects, and a real chance at playing .500 ball. They have a larger fan base and an ownership who'd be willing to open his coffers, should you do well. They have a better TV market.

And yet, if I'm Conforto, if given the exact same offer from both clubs, I'm picking Cincinnati all day long.

Better likelihood of getting my PAs against both handed pitchers. Better likelihood of putting up bigger power numbers (and thereby OPS/ SLG/ wRC+). Better chance of playing more games. Better chance of getting a bigger contract later.

On top of that, if I have a good half-season, I know the Cincinnati brass will deal me to a team who is competing for a pennant at the trading deadline. That means I'm nearly guaranteed to play in meaningful games (assuming I put up the numbers I think I can put up).

[corkedbat]

nm

[Kc61]

Pham was signed for $6M with a $1.5M option. Conforto will likely get 3 to 4 times that. I would be shocked if the Reds spent more than $10M on any one player for 2023. I hope I’m wrong.

Yes, I figure Reds max this off-season will be a Mike Minor level pitching contract and a Tommy Pham level outfielder contract. Could be less because they’ll want to keep reducing payroll and don’t have much more salary to lop off. Big issue I see is if they make a deal to off-load Moose, giving up some player value for salary relief. Would not dismiss that possibility. I don’t see Conforto as likely.

[Ron Madden]

Scott Boras On Michael Conforto’s Free Agency

Michael Conforto didn’t play a single inning or even sign with a team following last year’s qualifying offer and eventual shoulder surgery due to an offseason injury.

However, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he nevertheless feels the market can bring about a multi-year deal for his client.

Boras suggests Conforto could seek a contract at least loosely modeled after the two-year deal he negotiated for Carlos Rodon with the Giants, which allowed Rodon to opt out after year one.

While Boras and Conforto could seek a contract structured similarly to that of Rodon, there are a few caveats worth emphasizing. First and foremost, Conforto can’t reasonably hope to match the $22MM annual value on Rodon’s contract and would surely be in line for a lower rate of base pay.

Secondly, it should be noted that the second-year player option on Rodon’s contract was conditional; he needed to first reach 110 innings pitched before gaining the right to opt out of the deal.

Any team taking the risk of signing Conforto for multiple years might prefer that he fully “earn” the right to opt out rather than make it a flat guarantee.
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continue reading here:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/...ott-boras.html

[Kc61]

Anyone have two years, $36 million? That’s apparently what Giants are paying Conforto pending a physical. Just skimming through the thread, very few thought he’d do that well.

[Old school 1983]

Anyone have two years, $36 million? That’s apparently what Giants are paying Conforto pending a physical. Just skimming through the thread, very few thought he’d do that well.

Well they just lost Correa and needed to do something. May have been willing to overpay. Personally it’s not the 13m a year that surprises me. It’s the 2 years.