Redszone 2022 Top 40 prospects Poll: #2

[podgejeff_]

Elly De La Cruz, as generally expected, runs away with the #1 overall prospect title. I expect the #2 spot will be more contested. I'm going to give 3 days on the top 10 and 2 days per poll from there. I'm going to be adding guys to the poll that I saw in people's top 10 in another thread first, then guys based on general overall position. If you want somebody in the next poll put it in the chat.

1. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20

[Bourgeois Zee]

I went with Noelvi Marte. His combination of good speed and power show the upside, but the relative safety of the pick appealed even more. Marte's plate approach is among the best in the system, with lots of BBs (more than 10%) and few Ks (around 20%)-- especially for a power hitter. If this were all he was-- a .280/ .370/ .470/ .840 25 SB middle of the order hitter-- he'd still be a top 25 prospect in the game. But he's also got upside. Marte's not done filling out his frame and has moved to 3B for the Arizona Fall League season. Typically, that move means a few more pounds and a bit more power. If that's the case, Marte might turn into a slightly better version of Eugenio Suarez.

Speaking of the move to 3B, I can't view it as anything but positive. As a SS, the worry was that Marte would be a step slow with added weight. He has a cannon, but it occasionally misfires as well. At 3B, he should become an above average to plus defender. Personally, I'd have moved him to CF to take advantage of his speed, but I suspect the Reds are hedging their bets here, thinking that he's unlikely to remain as speedy as he was as a teenager. Fwiw, he ran a lot in Dayton, pilfering 10 bags in 13 tries in only 126 PAs.

I expect him to move to Chattanooga to take over the 3B spot on a team that shoujld profile with a lot of thump. Lots of patience too. And very, very little hit tool. It'll be interesting to see if the focus, then, is on unlocking some hits in those bats at the expense of a HR or two. (Or perhaps the thought is that the new shift rules will allow them to find hits with old approaches.) Regardless, he's going to be counted on to be the best player on that team and its clear offensive leader. At age 21 (His 21st birthday is today, October 16th!), Marte is probably in Chattanooga for at least 250 PAs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand probably moves to Louisville for a bit as the erstwhile 3B, but he's capable of playing other positions as well and could time-share the hot corner if Marte gets on a heater. I'd expect a mid-season call-up to Louisville, as CES (and EDLC and McLain and Siani and perhaps McGarry and Hopkins) get called up to the parent club. He might be a starter on Opening Day 2024, but that'd be pretty aggressive. More likely, he takes over 3B at the halfway point of the season.

The other prospect I considered was Cam Collier, the ultra-young first rounder from this year. He hit very well, but in a microscopic number of ABs. And Marte is among his better-case results in terms of youth and level. Marte is the surer thing (by a considerable amount), so I went with him.

[Mitri]

HB Noelvi.

Easy pick here, basically a coin flip between he and Elly in my view.

[dfs]

I think the decision here (and perhaps for several of the next rounds) is how much do you trust that those 35 plate appearances really represent the ability level of Cam Collier. If you believe those numbers he's going to be unreal, but he's far enough away and the sample size is so small that it's hard to believe those numbers.

[Tuff Nut]

Cam also, IIRC, held more than his own, last season, in the Cape Cod league, against much older competition. While I agree his sample has been small I can believe on his numbers. I have him as #3, as I went Marte here.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Cam also, IIRC, held more than his own, last season, in the Cape Cod league, against much older competition. While I agree his sample has been small I can believe on his numbers. I have him as #3, as I went Marte here.

Last year on the Cape, Collier's numbers were .217/ .379/ .217/ .597. He was 17 and three plus full years behind the typical prospect.

[Gallen5862]

I voted Marte. It is so great to have so many great prospects to consider.

[RustyJ]

I think the decision here (and perhaps for several of the next rounds) is how much do you trust that those 35 plate appearances really represent the ability level of Cam Collier. If you believe those numbers he's going to be unreal, but he's far enough away and the sample size is so small that it's hard to believe those numbers.

It was 9 games. Not sure what conclusions anyone could draw from that sample other than vague encouragement.

[RedsfaninMT]

Have to post, as I've never done so while working in South Africa. Put me down in the camp of "finally, we get to argue about damned fine prospects after the first three are chosen." I love Marte, but Collier gets my vote. I expect the excitement about him will jump after a full year in MILB.

[Kc61]

It was 9 games. Not sure what conclusions anyone could draw from that sample other than vague encouragement.

My conclusion is that it was a pretty astonishing performance by Collier for a 17 year old. Small sample, yes, but would take unusual ability to accomplish that at age 17. Then we can also read about him in the prospect reports leading up to the MLB draft.

Chase Petty is 19 and did well both at A ball and A+. Another high end prospect way advanced for his age. I’ll be voting for him at #4.

[mth123]

I hope Collier is as good as many here have already concluded. He’s definitely in that top group of 5 or 6 guys I consider to be really good prospects, but competition at those lower levels is too inconsistent to put him ahead of guys who had success at higher levels I went Marte here and will probably go McLain next. Then it’s a toss up between Arroyos rep and CES production. Collier would be after them for me. After them I have a gap with Petty and Boyle competing for best of the rest. A year from now I hope Collier emerges as number one, but I can’t put him there yet.