Redszone 2022 Top 40 prospects Poll: #4

[podgejeff_]

Cam Collier's youth and potential cruises to the #3 overall prospect for your Cincinnati Reds. Next up: #4.

1. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
2. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
3. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17

[mth123]

Going with McLain as the best combination of pedigree, proximity to the big leagues and production. I think he's starting in Cincy by the end of the year.

Arroyo seems to be the highly ranked one, but his production took a nosedive once he got out of the hitter friendly California League. I'm wondering if those inflated stats there are feeding into his rankings. I still think he's a good prospect and if he hits, he's the guy who will ultimately stay at SS in the big leagues. Hope he makes me look wrong here.

CES is the other guy I considered, and his production has been great, but for some reason he's not getting love from the national sites and I wonder why. I'm absolutely letting that skepticism influence my choice here. I actually wanted to put CES third, but I feel like I'm missing some information that is keeping him under the radar.

At this point, based on all the information, I'll go with Mclain, but there is a solid argument for any of the three and I had all three ranked ahead of Collier who is just too young and unknown for me to put him ahead of these other guys.

[Bourgeois Zee]

This one is a bit of a challenge for me.

I love Edwin Arroyo's youth and his overall 2022 numbers are dominant: .293/ .366/ .480/ .845. He's also an apparently outstanding defensive SS with a 60 fielding grade and twin 55 grades on his speed and arm. He's going to be a big league SS, most believe, and a good one. That hit tool is a 50 too-- he looks like a first division starter who, with just a little development, could turn into an All-Star level bat with Gold Glove potential. That's massive.

But...

He's OPSed less than 700 in any league outside of California, including Daytona. Now, maybe he's for real, but I tend to discount one league stats-- or at least look at them with a jaundiced eye. His 130 wRC+ looks like the outlier. That said, we're talking about some small samples here all the way around. I'm uncomfortable taking any kind of stance one way or another beyond, Youth--> Good, Glove--> Good, Tools--> Good.

The other option, for me, is to peg Christian Encarnacion-Strand a bit earlier than most experts. He's put up monster numbers in a Power 5 conference, in the lower levels of the minors, then again in AA. At some point, his production has got to count for something. And it's some serious production. .304/ .368/ .587/ .955 across two levels and three leagues screams that he's capable of doing this type of damage consistently wherever he calls home. (And the GABP would probably goose those numbers.) That works out, btw, to a 162 wRC+ in A+ ball, a 167 wRC+ with Minnesota's AA team, and a 125 wRC+ in Chattanooga. He's staring at a 150 professional wRC+ right now-- and not blinking. Woof.

And he's apparently proven that he can play 3B defensively. He got over the yips he struggled through in Minnesota and now projects as a 3B who can also play 1B. While his bat will always be his calling card, it's nice to know that CES has the hot corner relatively handled. I'm guessing he'll end up being slightly below average at 3B, but pretty good around 1B. (Maybe.) And I also believe that's where the Reds are projecting him. Moving Noelvi Marte to 3B instead of CF telegraphed their intentions on CES, IMO. He's probably going to be given a chance to supplant Joey Votto. Good luck, kid.

He does have some warts. At around 25%, his K rate is a bit high for that anemic BB rate. He's going to need to add some patience or continue to his well over .300 to hold All-Star level value as a hitter. That's... tough to do. Really tough. He's also four years older than Arroyo, but only two levels up-- the kid's got him there.

In the end, I went with the guy who's proved it longer and in better leagues. The upside play here is absolutely Arroyo, and I'd guess most teams would target Arroyo over CES. But I'm thinking CES will have the better career. That power will play, and his hit tool looks really, really solid so far. I think he'll end up walking a little just based on the fear pitchers will have in facing him. In the GABP, he's a perfect cleanup guy ahead of EDLC, India, and Stephenson.

[Kc61]

Chase Petty pitched successfully at Low A and High A this past year. He was 19. At A+ level he was, according to BR, 4.1 years younger than the weighted average player age. Strong K, BB and HR rates. His ERA was over 4 at A+ ball but his FIP was 3.35. I’ve seen his fastball and slider graded at 70. 6’1” but athletic.

After the first three prospects, there’s not a clear #4 but Petty stands out because he’s so far advanced and successful for his young age. He’s my pick.

[HokieRed]

McClain but strictly on high floor. He'll have some kind of major league career, and I don't think that is yet as certain for the others I really like, Petty, Phillips, CES, and Arroyo.

[Alpha Zero]

I’m going with Arroyo. Daytona is as much a pitcher friendly environment as the Cal league is a hitter friendly one. The real Arroyo is likely somewhere between his numbers in those leagues, and that’s dang good for an 18 year old SS in his first taste of full season ball. Couple that with the athleticism, switch hitting, and potentially elite defense, and you’ve got yourself a top 5 organizational prospect.

[MikeS21]

I went with McLain ... I think he will end up a major league utility guy. I like CES, and been impressed with his power. Both Petty and Arroyo are still pretty young, but show promise.

[bah1286]

This is the point where I feel there is a group of 4-5 guys who all have an argument, maybe even more. I went with Encarnacion-Strand simply because I love his production and want to believe. I could have easily been talked into McLain, Phillips, Petty, and Arroyo.

[RedTeamGo!]

Going with The Big CES until he wins. Dude is a beast. Highest ceiling IMHO of what is left by far.

McLain does not look nearly as polished as everyone thought he was. Some scouts said he had a chance to be fastest to the majors of the draft, so now everyone thinks he has this great pedigree. I would counter that with there is a reason he slid in the draft, and I think we are seeing it. I frankly am not convinced he is top 10 in the Reds system right now.

Arroyo is very far away.

[RustyJ]

Chase Petty pitched successfully at Low A and High A this past year. He was 19. At A+ level he was, according to BR, 4.1 years younger than the weighted average player age. Strong K, BB and HR rates. His ERA was over 4 at A+ ball but his FIP was 3.35. IÂ’ve seen his fastball and slider graded at 70. 6’1” but athletic.

After the first three prospects, there’s not a clear #4 but Petty stands out because he’s so far advanced and successful for his young age. He’s my pick.

I’m interested to see the reports on Petty this winter. Obviously a strong performance for his age, but the lack of standout moments like Greene coming up or even Connor Phillips make me question those eye popping pitch grades. My guess is those 70s get reined in a bit now that he’s been seen in kind of regular seasons vs showcase mode.

I think I like Arroyo here, but he’s the most enigmatic guy in the system for me. Don’t feel totally confident he’ll earn the ranking next season, but love the swing and defensive upside.

[dfs]

Strand and McClain finished the year in the same league at the same age.
McClain put up a 232/363/453
Strand put up a 309/351/522 in admittedly fewer at bats, but those numbers were in line with what he did at high A ball.

In this organization McCain will get more/better looks because he was a first round pick by this front office, but if I'm a rival GM and you give me a choice between those two then I'll take CES every time.

Arroyo is all projection at this point. We just did that with Collier. At some point what they do on the field matters.

[Betterread]

I voted for Arroyo over CES, but it was close.

[Redhook]

Strand and McClain finished the year in the same league at the same age.
McClain put up a 232/363/453
Strand put up a 309/351/522 in admittedly fewer at bats, but those numbers were in line with what he did at high A ball.

In this organization McCain will get more/better looks because he was a first round pick by this front office, but if I'm a rival GM and you give me a choice between those two then I'll take CES every time.

Arroyo is all projection at this point. We just did that with Collier. At some point what they do on the field matters.

I agree 100%. I love CES and almost picked him over Marte and Collier too, but I went with the experts on them. I believe CES will be contributing to the big league club as early as next year and I think he’s the safest prospect with the highest floor. His swing is solid, he has a ton of power and hits the ball the other way with ease. I think he’s the cleanup hitter for years to come. McLain….I hope he does well, but I’m not holding my breathe. Like others have said, I see him in the utility role.

[kaldaniels]

Seth Meijas-Brean ruined Christian Encarnacion-Strand for me.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Seth Meijas-Brean ruined Christian Encarnacion-Strand for me.

In AA, Mejias-Brean's 695 OPS was 239 points below Encarnacion-Strand's 934.

Mejias-Brean was two years older too.