Redszone 2022 Top 40 prospects Poll: #5

[podgejeff_]

In a tight race, Edwin Arroyo barely edges out CES and McLain to be the Reds #4 overall prospect. (Edit: so I forgot to edit the poll to indicate when it should close, so I have no idea how long this is staying up by default).

1. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
2. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
3. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
4. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think Encarnacion-Strand is the fairly easy choice here.

He and McLain played in the same league, and CES had the much, much better season. They're nearly identical in age too-- only 100 days separate them. (Fwiw, CES is younger.)

McLain plays the more difficult position, but looks like he's going to end up at either 2B or CF instead of SS, while CES might well stick at 3B.

Three numbers will likely tell the story between them:
1. McLain's 28% K rate is four percent worse than CES's 24%.
2. McLain's more than 10% superior in BB rate. (That's an incredible number, fwiw.)
3. CES's BA is more than 70 points higher-- and his slugging percentage is more than 200 points better.

Give me Encarnacion-Strand.

[podgejeff_]

I think Encarnacion-Strand is the fairly easy choice here.

He and McLain played in the same league, and CES had the much, much better season. They're nearly identical in age too-- only 100 days separate them. (Fwiw, CES is younger.)

McLain plays the more difficult position, but looks like he's going to end up at either 2B or CF instead of SS, while CES might well stick at 3B.

Three numbers will likely tell the story between them:
1. McLain's 28% K rate is four percent worse than CES's 24%.
2. McLain's more than 10% superior in BB rate. (That's an incredible number, fwiw.)
3. CES's BA is more than 70 points higher-- and his slugging percentage is more than 200 points better.

Give me Encarnacion-Strand.

Good points, but you've got to factor in McLain's speed on the basepaths as well. 27 stolen bases. And the area he's really deficient in right now was actually the calling card he was drafted for. If he gets that right, he's pretty much a complete player.

[dfs]

You might be able to convince me that there is another deserving choice, but between CES and McClain I'll take CES every time.

Slugging plays well.

[mth123]

I want to take CES here, but going with McLain based on playing middle infield, ability to run and and prospect pedigree. McLain was a first rounder, CES was taken in round 4. The collective wisdom of baseball knows something and breaks the tie. I wouldn't be surprised to see Encarnacion-Strand end up the best player in the entire system, but until he does, those scouting indicators mean something.

As far as performance goes, sticking just to Chattanooga where they had common competition, its not such a landslide for CES as it appears to be. McLain had an ISOd of .131 at AA compared to Encarnacion-Strand's .042 - advantage McLain. McLain's ISOp was .221 compared to Encarnacion-Strand's .213, roughly even. I'm not convinced CES has more power. Isolated On-Base skills and Isolated Power both go to McLain (ISOp is basically a wash). What CES has is a better BA driven by a slightly lower K-Rate .257 for CES compared to .281 for McLain (doesn't seem that huge a difference) and Encarnacion-Strand with a .376 BABIP compared to McLain's .300. Not sure CES numbers are sustainable. Add baserunning and defense, and McLain gets the nod for me.

I have them at 3 and 4 on my personal list with Arroyo and Collier 5 and 6 based primarily on being so young with a lack fo track record in full-season ball.

[Kc61]

I’m voting for Chase Petty, for reasons I explained last time.

If I were voting for a more likely winner, I’d go for McClain over CES. Not that McLain has performed that well, but I like his high BB rate and he’s a shortstop and has defensive value. CES’ numbers are good but his BB rate is a concern, his LD rate is due for a decline, and he lacks defensive value, so I’d put him a bit lower down.

[RedTeamGo!]

Good points, but you've got to factor in McLain's speed on the basepaths as well. 27 stolen bases. And the area he's really deficient in right now was actually the calling card he was drafted for. If he gets that right, he's pretty much a complete player.

Yeah I’m going to value hitting prowess way above stolen bases at all levels, but especially in the minors. I don’t care how good you are at stealing bases, if you can’t hit you can’t play

[chicoruiz]

Really, really close, but I went with CES. What tipped the balance in his favor is my belief (possibly in error) that McLain will have to play so well that he forces the organization to make room for him, while CES will theoretically slot right in into Votto’s spot- or at least a job share with TySteve- in 2024.

[Alpha Zero]

Pretty much a dead heat between CES and McClain for me. I gave the slight edge to McClain because he has a slightly higher margin for error given where he lands on the defensive spectrum. Encarnacion-Strand is super impressive, but he’ll need to continue posting really strong numbers at the plate to provide value at the MLB level.

[MikeS21]

I went with McLain. I really like CES for his power to all fields, but I am a little concerned about his K/BB rate and his generous BABIP this season. Not sure it’s reasonable to expect a .370+ BABIP in AAA or in the majors.

[*BaseClogger*]

I went with McLain. I really like CES for his power to all fields, but I am a little concerned about his K/BB rate and his generous BABIP this season. Not sure it’s reasonable to expect a .370+ BABIP in AAA or in the majors.

Yeah, as mth123 pointed out, McLain arguably has more power than CES (higher isoP) and we know he has more speed, which makes the gulf between their BABIPs difficult to reconcile for me.

Looks like we need the Chase Petty voters to break the tie?

[herbdizzle]

Yeah, as mth123 pointed out, McLain arguably has more power than CES (higher isoP) and we know he has more speed, which makes the gulf between their BABIPs difficult to reconcile for me.

Looks like we need the Chase Petty voters to break the tie?

I'm a Petty voter. I choose McClain over CES

[Alpha Zero]

Yeah, as mth123 pointed out, McLain arguably has more power than CES (higher isoP) and we know he has more speed, which makes the gulf between their BABIPs difficult to reconcile for me.

Looks like we need the Chase Petty voters to break the tie?

I’m guessing the 30% line drive rate that CES put up at AA versus the 20% number McLain put up at the same level had something to do with it. Not sure how predictive or sustainable either of those numbers will turn out to be, but I think it’s not too difficult to see where the separation in BABIP came from when you look at batted ball data.

[Kc61]

I’m guessing the 30% line drive rate that CES put up at AA versus the 20% number McLain put up at the same level had something to do with it. Not sure how predictive or sustainable either of those numbers will turn out to be, but I think it’s not too difficult to see where the separation in BABIP came from when you look at batted ball data.

The highest LD rate in MLB this year (qualified hitters) was 27.5%, Freddie Freeman. Joey Votto’s lifetime LD rate is 25.4%. Average MLB line drive rate this year was 19.9%

CES’ LD rates at AA were 30% and 28% at his two teams, respectively, this year.

He may turn out to be a very fine line drive hitter, but these AA rates would be off the charts at the big league level.

[Mitri]

Something is very off about McLain’s swing. If he gets it straightened out he’ll be an all-star level of player. Power, great defense and speed.

Still, I’ll take the sure bat especially in a system with very few of them. CES looks like he is going to hit and I love that tool more than all the others.