Redszone 2022 Top 40 prospects Poll: #5

[Bourgeois Zee]

Minor league line drive rates are higher than MLB line drive rates. That said, I'd hope it won't surprise anyone that those who hit the ball hard in the minors tend to hit the ball hard in the majors.

Since they began tracking line drive percentage in minor league baseball (2008).
All AA hitters who've put up a LD% of 25% or higher.
Age 22 or younger in AA.
200 PAs at a minimum.
BA .300 or better.

The list is:
- Top 100 prospect Colton Cowser
- 3x All-Star Corey Seager
- Faled prospect Top 100 prospect AJ Reed
- Everyday regular and former Top 100 prospect Gavin Lux
- Everyday regular and former Top 100 prospect Amed Rosario
- 2x All-Star Kyle Schwarber
- 3x All-Star Ronald Acuna, Jr.
- 1x All-Star Brandon Belt
- Steven Duggar
- 1x All-Star Justin Smoak
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Of those, only Seager hit the ball as hard as often as did CES. (He's also one of the few who did his damage outside the Texas League hitter's haven.)

That's some august company, right there.

Maybe Encarnacion-Strand turns into Reed or Duggar. Then again, Reed and Duggar are pretty much the only guys on the list who are failures too.

[Kc61]

Minor league line drive rates are higher than MLB line drive rates. That said, I'd hope it won't surprise anyone that those who hit the ball hard in the minors tend to hit the ball hard in the majors.

Since they began tracking line drive percentage in minor league baseball (2016).
All AA hitters who've put up a LD% of 26% or higher.
Age 22 or younger in AA.
200 PAs at a minimum.
BA .300 or better.

The list is:
2021-2022 Top 100 prospect Colton Cowser
3x All-Star Corey Seager
Faled prospect Top 100 prospect AJ Reed
Everyday regular and former Top 100 prospect Gavin Lux
Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Rather small sample from which to draw conclusions, no?

[Bourgeois Zee]

Rather small sample from which to draw conclusions, no?

Since 2008, all AA hitters with 200 PAs that are 22 or below.

That's about 1100 total hitters.

[Kc61]

Since 2008, all AA hitters with 200 PAs that are 22 or below.

That's about 1100 total hitters.

I mean the success rate at the big league level of the under 22 group with a high LD rate at AA. If there are only a few who have achieved that at AA, it doesn’t tell us much about how it holds up at the big league level.

Even your now expanded list at 25% LD rate seems to mostly include hitters in the Texas League. So is that a truly representative sample?

I have no doubt that CES is one of a relatively few hitters with such a high LD rate at AA. But I’m not convinced it will hold up against the much better pitching in the big leagues.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I mean the success rate at the big league level of the under 22 group with a high LD rate at AA.

If there are only a few who have achieved that at AA, it doesn’t tell us much about how it holds up at the big league level.

I'd argue that a high LD%, relative youth, and a .300 BA is a solid indication of future success, but you do you, I guess.

[Kc61]

I'd argue that a high LD%, relative youth, and a .300 BA is a solid indication of future success, but you do you, I guess.

Probably frustrating to have someone challenge your opinions so I’m not surprised by the “you do you.”

But the question I see is the potential impact of (a) an unusual LD rate and (b) a big K/BB split, as he advances to higher levels. And in the context of a prospect who’s not rated nearly this high in many of the publications.

I’m cautious in my expectations of CES, not denying his excellent hitting at the minor league level. I’d have him a few notches down but well within the top ten.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Probably frustrating to have someone challenge your opinions so I’m not surprised by the “you do you.”

But the question I see is the potential impact of (a) an unusual LD rate and (b) a big K/BB split, as he advances to higher levels. And in the context of a prospect who’s not rated nearly this high in many of the publications.

I’m cautious in my expectations of CES, not denying his excellent hitting at the minor league level. I’d have him a few notches down but well within the top ten.

Why is Encarnacion-Strand's line drive percentage "unusual"?

[Kc61]

Why is Encarnacion-Strand's line drive percentage "unusual"?

Because it’s so high that it almost has to come down substantially in the bigs. And once it does come down, who knows the impact on his overall performance numbers.

[mth123]

Here is an interesting table. Samples are small and I'm not sure what conclusions are to be drawn from it, but I think it's interesting anyway. CES did have a high line drive rate driving his .376 BABIP. This table shows those stats (Chattanooga only) and what the stats would have been at a still high but more reasonable .333 BABIP and a more normal .300 BABIP. It also shows McLain who had a .300 BABIP. I forget the command to make this table line-up better, so excuse the format. If anyone remembers that command, let me know and I'll edit.


NM BABIP BA OBP SLG OPS ISOp ISOd
CES 0.376 0.309 0.351 0.522 0.847 0.213 0.042
CES 0.333 0.279 0.324 0.493 0.817 0.214 0.045
CES 0.300 0.257 0.304 0.471 0.775 0.214 0.047
MMc 0.300 0.232 0.363 0.453 0.816 0.221 0.131

Personally, I have visions of Tony Perez when I think about CES, so as far as dreams go, I think that is better than anything McLain will become, but as a player, McLain's defense and speed give him a lower bar and less downside than what CES may have. CES needs an .800+ OPS to have much value. McLain can be valuable in the .725 to .750 range based on playing in the middle of the diamond somewhere (probably second base) and adding value as a baserunner.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Because it’s so high that it almost has to come down substantially in the bigs. And once it does come down, who knows the impact on his overall performance numbers.

Again, KC, while his line drive percentage will undoubtedly drop, as I have stated earlier, the fact that it is this high now is a good indicator that he will be successful anyway.

There are remarkably few prospects as young as CES who are also good hitters that also punish the ball the way he did in AA. No one is saying he's destined to be exactly this hitter or sustain a 28% LD%. He doesn't need that high LD% to remain effective. That's a false dichotomy you've kind of set up here. All I'm saying is that his 2022 numbers are exceptionally good when compared to the company he's keeping.

He might crap out between now and the majors, of course. Others have. But if I were betting on it, I'd bet on CES's skill at hitting just based on the guys who've hit similarly to him over the past 15 years or so in AA. 10 guys have done it (besides CES). One of them is a prospect. 5 were All-Stars.

[Kc61]

Again, KC, while his line drive percentage will undoubtedly drop, as I have stated earlier, the fact that it is this high now is a good indicator that he will be successful anyway.

There are remarkably few prospects as young as CES who are also good hitters that also punish the ball the way he did in AA. No one is saying he's destined to be exactly this hitter or sustain a 28% LD%. He doesn't need that high LD% to remain effective. That's a false dichotomy you've kind of set up here. All I'm saying is that his 2022 numbers are exceptionally good when compared to the company he's keeping.

He might crap out between now and the majors, of course. Others have. But if I were betting on it, I'd bet on CES's skill at hitting just based on the guys who've hit similarly to him over the past 15 years or so in AA. 10 guys have done it (besides CES). One of them is a prospect. 5 were All-Stars.

If this were an all-star selection, CES’ hitting in 2022 at AA would earn him a spot. But the areas I’ve noted, including his limited defensive value, gives me some concern. Still have him ranked pretty high, think it’s perfectly legit to focus on areas that might hurt as he climbs the ladder.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If this were an all-star selection, CES’ hitting in 2022 at AA would earn him a spot. But the areas I’ve noted, including his limited defensive value, gives me some concern. Still have him ranked pretty high, think it’s perfectly legit to focus on areas that might hurt as he climbs the ladder.

The area you seem to be focused on is an odd one.

And I'd argue that he's answered his defensive value positively. There were concerns he was a 1B/ DH only until this season. Now, he's largely viewed as an adequate 3B with a good arm. (I'm not sure he plays there as a Red, but he could. It's similar to how most see McLain as a CF, SS, or 2B.)

And you can rank the guys however you want to rank them-- that's your list, not mine. But if you say something is worrisome, it should probably be worrisome and not a marker of a really good hitter having a really good season.