Redszone 2022 Top 40 prospects Poll: #7

[podgejeff_]

As expected, Matt McLain runs away with the #6 spot. Four shortstops in the top 6, nothing but infielders so far.

1. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
2. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
3. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
4. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA 22
6. Matt McLain SS AA 23

[mth123]

Went with Chase Petty here. Seems the best of the pitchers left in the system, but his pitch mix still makes him an iffy bet to be a big league starter. But he's young and will play in AA at some point this year and seems likely to be a contributor in the big leagues. If his change-up progresses he can probably start. If not, he looks like he could be a late inning reliever.

Considered Steer. AAA stats look pretty good, but I was underwhelmed with his big-league cup of coffee. May just be small sample stuff, but I get bench player vibe from him. Tools seem average across the board, which helps rack-up stats in AAA but gets lost in the shuffle in the big leagues. Hopefully he's better than that. Reds could use him.

Williamson and Boyle were others I considered. I just see reliever in their future. Maybe good ones. Hoping they become Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble. We'll see.

[Kc61]

Petty here on the basis of his good work at age 19. Next, I’d follow with Andrew Abbott.

Abbott looks like a solid fourth starter in the bigs. His K rate is good, 11.77 at AA ball. He throws a solid ground ball rate, generally 45%, good for GABP. And he started 24 games with 118 IP at two levels, a pretty full starting season. ERA a bit high at AA, but FIP and x-FIP mid-3’s. Steer is also a candidate for next time, but I prefer the SP over the good utility man.

[bah1286]

Went Petty last round and will do so again. Would have just flipped he and McLain but I like them both to be average players. Will go Boyle next.

[Alpha Zero]

Petty here for me as well. Steer on deck for me. I think Steer could eventually carve out a solid Todd Frazier-like career.

[Redhook]

Oops

[Redhook]

Petty here for me as well. Steer on deck for me. I think Steer could eventually carve out a solid Todd Frazier-like career.

That’d be awesome! Steer gets lost in the shuffle with so much talent coming up, but he’ll be valuable and, who knows, he could be the glue that keeps everything together (I’m not betting on that, but Frazier 2.0 would be nice).

[Mitri]

Petty stands out to me here as well. He seems to be the most polished player left on the board. Lots of warts elsewhere.

I guess Steer is next? At some point guys like Williamson and Jay Allen need to be discussed despite bad seasons.

Shining a light on this system isn’t doing it favors in my view. It’s very, very top-heavy.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If posters are correct about Steer as he turns into Todd Frazier 2.0, the Reds will be crapping in high cotton, talent-wise.

Frazier was a two-time All-Star with a Red line of .257/ .321/ .463/ .784 and a 113 OPS+. He was also a very good glove and an underrated base runner. Just an absolutely solid ball player.

Steer's going to have to show more pop than he has before I compare him to Frazier.

IMO, Steer's inclusion at this point boils down to how you believe the Reds will use him. As an infield utility glove, he has real value-- think Rich Aurilia or Felipe Lopez. As a would-be starting 3B, unless he finds his inner Frazier and starts hitting the ball much, much harder, he's going to be a second-divsion starter, if that. Even in AAA this season, Steer's line drive rates weren't ideal.

[Bourgeois Zee]

After lots of deliberation, I went with Chase Petty at number seven.

Pre-draft (and into his first season with Minnesota), his fastball/ slider stuff had him in the conversation as the best HS pitcher in the draft. He topped out at 102 and threw triple digits often. Not only that, it had late life-- comparisons to Dustin May dotted the internet. His slider, too, was considered a likely plus pitch. That two-pitch arsenal is good enough, often, to dominate at the lowest levels of the minor leagues. But Petty developed differently. He's not up there throwing as hard as he can-- he's working in the mid-90s. This has allowed his breaking ball to play up slightly-- he's among the league leaders in GIDP all season despite a lack of innings.

That's where he's at right now.

A mid-90s fastball with break and a pretty nasty slider/ sinker combination to induce ground ball outs.

If you think that sounds a lot like Graham Ashcraft, you're not wrong.



And much like Ashcraft, Petty will have to work on his change-up to take that next leap. It's shown some promise:
https://twitter.com/The_BPCsj/status...25581458481157

That's 5 inches of vertical break and 18 inches of horizontal break when it's right. That's... a lot. The change-up at the Twitter link is fun. (Wish I had a YouTube video of it instead.) It's worth a look, if only to dream on.

Also similar to Ashcraft, he doesn't K as many people as his stuff suggests he should-- part of that is his delivery. It's tailor-made for ground balls, but little else. In Cincinnati, that's just fine: ground ball pitchers can absolutely succeed here. Especially if they have the movement Petty does.

What Petty does do is work-- his work ethic in high school, with trainers (since the 8th grade), and in the professional ranks has been praised repeatedly. Those are the types of kids to bet on-- they typically find a way to stay healthy and effective.

He was coddled all season in 2022-- good on Red minor league development for that. He pitched (well) in A+ the last six weeks of the season or so, but I'm fairly positive the Reds will keep him in Dayton to start the season. He should see Chattanooga at the end of the first half of the season, assuming health and adequacy. Petty should be the bell weather ace for a group that includes Julian Aguiar, Javi Rivera, Steve Hajjar, and perhaps Jose Acuna. All of those guys could end up being really good.

This year, I'd love to see that velocity tick up a mph or two. Sitting mid-90s is fine, but it isn't conducive to high K totals. If he can reach back to get that strike out (a la Johnny Cueto), then great. If he's lost 8 mph on his fastball to throw strikes, it's concerning. At worst, he's a likely back of the bullpen relief arm. (Get used to that. There's a lot of it coming over the next 25 prospects.)

[HokieRed]

I think Petty is a pretty easy call here, and he may well be considerably higher up the list by next season. On the other hand, being 19 and a pitcher, he may be nowhere on the list. But he's shown an exceptional level of command at a very early age. I also like Connor Phillips a lot for the pure level of stuff indicated by his K rates but I've got Petty ahead of him now as the best pitching prospect in our minors. I also like Steer but I think the Todd Frazier comp is more hope than reality.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think Petty is a pretty easy call here, and he may well be considerably higher up the list by next season. On the other hand, being 19 and a pitcher, he may be nowhere on the list. But he's shown an exceptional level of command at a very early age. I also like Connor Phillips a lot for the pure level of stuff indicated by his K rates but I've got Petty ahead of him now as the best pitching prospect in our minors. I also like Steer but I think the Todd Frazier comp is more hope than reality.

The guys I considered were Petty, Boyle, Abbott, Williamson, Steer, Stoudt, Phillips, Acuna, and Williamson.

All have reliever/ utility risk.

Petty, IMO, is the most likely to break out of the relief mold.

Jose Acuna is the sleeper in the group. IMO, he's a legitimate top 20 prospect.

The guy I'm having the most difficulty ranking is Sal Stewart.

[Betterread]

I think a lot of people have not seen Brandon Williamson pitch. He has tremendous potential. He is a 6’6” lefty with a 95 mph rising fastball and very good curveball and above average slider and developing change up. For 2023, He has to improve his command and efficiency/ durability to go deeper into games. But he is absolutely seen as a near term ML Starter by the Reds, and he has the raw stuff to do it. He has to put in the work and stay healthy but he is close to Lodolo (both went to TCU) in what we can expect from him. Those are high expectations.

[Betterread]

After lots of deliberation, I went with Chase Petty at number seven.

Pre-draft (and into his first season with Minnesota), his fastball/ slider stuff had him in the conversation as the best HS pitcher in the draft. He topped out at 102 and threw triple digits often. Not only that, it had late life-- comparisons to Dustin May dotted the internet. His slider, too, was considered a likely plus pitch. That two-pitch arsenal is good enough, often, to dominate at the lowest levels of the minor leagues. But Petty developed differently. He's not up there throwing as hard as he can-- he's working in the mid-90s. This has allowed his breaking ball to play up slightly-- he's among the league leaders in GIDP all season despite a lack of innings.

That's where he's at right now.

A mid-90s fastball with break and a pretty nasty slider/ sinker combination to induce ground ball outs.

If you think that sounds a lot like Graham Ashcraft, you're not wrong.



And much like Ashcraft, Petty will have to work on his change-up to take that next leap. It's shown some promise:
https://twitter.com/The_BPCsj/status...25581458481157

That's 5 inches of vertical break and 18 inches of horizontal break when it's right. That's... a lot. The change-up at the Twitter link is fun. (Wish I had a YouTube video of it instead.) It's worth a look, if only to dream on.

Also similar to Ashcraft, he doesn't K as many people as his stuff suggests he should-- part of that is his delivery. It's tailor-made for ground balls, but little else. In Cincinnati, that's just fine: ground ball pitchers can absolutely succeed here. Especially if they have the movement Petty does.

What Petty does do is work-- his work ethic in high school, with trainers (since the 8th grade), and in the professional ranks has been praised repeatedly. Those are the types of kids to bet on-- they typically find a way to stay healthy and effective.

He was coddled all season in 2022-- good on Red minor league development for that. He pitched (well) in A+ the last six weeks of the season or so, but I'm fairly positive the Reds will keep him in Dayton to start the season. He should see Chattanooga at the end of the first half of the season, assuming health and adequacy. Petty should be the bell weather ace for a group that includes Julian Aguiar, Javi Rivera, Steve Hajjar, and perhaps Jose Acuna. All of those guys could end up being really good.

This year, I'd love to see that velocity tick up a mph or two. Sitting mid-90s is fine, but it isn't conducive to high K totals. If he can reach back to get that strike out (a la Johnny Cueto), then great. If he's lost 8 mph on his fastball to throw strikes, it's concerning. At worst, he's a likely back of the bullpen relief arm. (Get used to that. There's a lot of it coming over the next 25 prospects.)

Very informative write-up. I appreciated your mention of his delivery. It is my perception that the twins organization “cleaned up” his delivery, which was more violent in HS. When I say that, I mean that Petty put in the time and work to take the twins teaching to heart, and continued to do it when traded to the Reds. I wonder if the Reds can tweak it a little further to gain some velocity and more importantly, provide more deception to increase the effectiveness of his stuff. I am curious how this off-season goes with the reds and Petty. By February we should be hearing about his progress or otherwise.

[HokieRed]

The guys I considered were Petty, Boyle, Abbott, Williamson, Steer, Stoudt, Phillips, Acuna, and Williamson.

All have reliever/ utility risk.

Petty, IMO, is the most likely to break out of the relief mold.

Jose Acuna is the sleeper in the group. IMO, he's a legitimate top 20 prospect.

The guy I'm having the most difficulty ranking is Sal Stewart.

That seems like the relevant list at this point. I still like Williamson in one of the next three or four slots; question is whether he's the 21 or 22 version. Most difficult player to rank for me--and actually by far--is not yet on the board. Austin Hendrick. 35% roughly K rate but 13-14% W rate this year and 20% as a 20 year old at A ball in 2021. More than 50% of his hits for XB. Possibly a CF? How on earth do you evaluate that/