Reds post-season transactions 2022-23

[Kc61]

1. The history of MLB is filled with prospects who had difficulty succeeding in the big leagues and also is filled with prospects who burst onto the scene and became immediate producers. We have seen time and time again, rebuilding teams shoot into contention due to prospects producing in their early MLB years.

2. Graham Ashcraft put up a 1.3 fWAR in 103 IP last season. Steamer projects him to post a 1.7 fWAR in a full 2023 season. Greene projects a 3.2 fWAR, Lodolo a 3.7 fWAR. That is a solid core of a rotation.

3. The Cubs and Astros slashed payroll during their rebuild and didn't start spending until their prospects developed, which is exactly when they both started to contend. What they spent recently, after they both have won a World Series and have had years of contending is irrelevant to the Reds current situation.

As for the future, I am not making any predictions about the Reds. I am just pointing out that there is a path for the Reds to contend shortly, as long as they have just average luck, and make reasonable moves. Anything can happen, but their future is looking strong, it's their present that sucks.

1. If you’re counting on “immediate production” from rookies to construct a good team, based on your “history of MLB,” I’d recommend a new history book.

2. Graham Ashcraft had a 6.09 K rate in over 100 MLB innings last season. He is a definite maybe.

3. The Cubs 2021 World Series team used 34 players for $171 million in salary. The Astros 2017 World Series team had 28 players costing $124 million in salary. This is according to Baseball Prospectus linking to Cots. These teams succeeded by adding expensive veterans along the way.

The Reds’ path will lead to lower payrolls, some interesting kids, and several years of continued losing. They need a much more open and varied approach to build a winner. You generally don’t win limiting yourself to the farm system and cheap veterans.

[LeatherPants]

The average playoff team in 2022 had 6.5 starters with 9+ starts in the season. Even assuming that you can count on Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcroft to be the "core" of a contending team by 2024, where are the other 3 and a half starters coming from by then?

[Bourgeois Zee]

The average playoff team in 2022 had 6.5 starters with 9+ starts in the season. Even assuming that you can count on Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcroft to be the "core" of a contending team by 2024, where are the other 3 and a half starters coming from by then?

This doesn't mention the other 7 offensive players beyond India and Stephenson.

And comparing the Reds to the 2012-2015 Astros isn't the victory you seem to think it is-- it took four years for the Astros to resemble a quality team. If last year was Year One, India and Stephenson will be free agents by the time the Reds might be good. Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft will be one season from free agency themselves. I'm also calling BS on the Astros not having someone as good as India or Stephenson at the start of their rebuilt. Jose Altuve is heads and shoulders better than India. They also had JD Martinez, a prime-era Hunter Pence, and prime-era Mark Melancon.

The Cubs, meanwhile, took five years (from 2010) in their rebuild. That'd put all of those guys in free agency. No es muy bueno.

[757690]

This doesn't mention the other 7 offensive players beyond India and Stephenson.

And comparing the Reds to the 2012-2015 Astros isn't the victory you seem to think it is-- it took four years for the Astros to resemble a quality team. If last year was Year One, India and Stephenson will be free agents by the time the Reds might be good. Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft will be one season from free agency themselves. I'm also calling BS on the Astros not having someone as good as India or Stephenson at the start of their rebuilt. Jose Altuve is heads and shoulders better than India. They also had JD Martinez, a prime-era Hunter Pence, and prime-era Mark Melancon.

The Cubs, meanwhile, took five years (from 2010) in their rebuild. That'd put all of those guys in free agency. No es muy bueno.

So do I have to explain what a “core” is? Lol, of course more work needs to be done, but the core is there.

As for the Cubs and Astros, this is not year one for the Reds. It’s year seven or eight, hard to keep count. The rebuild started in 2015 with a kinda pause in 2019 and 2020.

The result of all these rebuilding years is that the Reds currently have India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft already MLB ready, and a top 5 MLB farm system that is overflowing with prospects. The Cubs and Astros did not reach a top 5 farm MLB farm system until the year before they started to compete, and did not have a core as strong has India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft at that point.

[REDREAD]

The success of this rebuild will depend almost entirely on how well the young rotation and the prospects develop. That is an evergreen statement about every rebuild.

It won’t matter how much the Reds spend this or next offseason if the young players they already have don’t develop. The good news is that the Reds have so many good young players and prospects that odds are strong that they will develop well.

I disagree with this. The Reds have enough payflex. If they made good trades and signings, they could get relevant again pretty quickly.

Hypothetically (we know they won't do this):
Get a MOR starter this winter and a starting OF (trade or FA).
Next winter.. no Moose and Votto.. that frees up a ton of money to get more cost controlled guys.

I also disagree that the Reds have so many good prospects/young guys that there's good odds of this rebuild working. About 1/3 of MLB at any given time is trying to do exactly what the Reds are doing..
Most of these teams fail.

[REDREAD]

I don’t see how Reds will “do fine over the next few years.” I can see an argument for the second half of this decade.

Your analysis seems to truncate the time it takes for prospects to establish themselves in the big leagues.

The Reds base of good, winning veterans is now so small that it will take years of development to win. They can shorten that with fairly serious spending. Otherwise, I hope we’re all around in 2026-29.

I agree with your main points.. But I am afraid that in 2026: Greene, Lodollo, etc will either be gone or on the verge of being traded by then.
2023 honestly looks like another lost year.
It's a complete waste to fill in the roster with cheap garbage while waiting for the kids to grow up and be productive.
A smart franchise would be trying to add talent, not just tread water as cheaply as possible.

[Bourgeois Zee]

As for the Cubs and Astros, this is not year one for the Reds. It’s year seven or eight, hard to keep count. The rebuild started in 2015 with a kinda pause in 2019 and 2020.

Nope.

This is entirely and 100% wrong.

They spent real money (relatively speaking) in 2020 in order to compete. 2021 too, fwiw. (Kind of.)

You know that. C'mon, man.

[757690]

Nope.

This is entirely and 100% wrong.

They spent real money (relatively speaking) in 2020 in order to compete. 2021 too, fwiw. (Kind of.)

You know that. C'mon, man.

I said there was a pause. Are you denying that the Reds were rebuilding in 2016-2019? Are you trying to argue that the Reds acquired nothing of value for this current rebuild during those years?

[757690]

I disagree with this. The Reds have enough payflex. If they made good trades and signings, they could get relevant again pretty quickly.

Hypothetically (we know they won't do this):
Get a MOR starter this winter and a starting OF (trade or FA).
Next winter.. no Moose and Votto.. that frees up a ton of money to get more cost controlled guys.

I also disagree that the Reds have so many good prospects/young guys that there's good odds of this rebuild working. About 1/3 of MLB at any given time is trying to do exactly what the Reds are doing..
Most of these teams fail.

I agree the Reds should be spending to build a winner. I’ve been saying this for years, that the Reds payroll should be around $200M every season. I am just discussing what is realistic knowing what the payroll will actually be.

I disagree that building through the farm is failed concept. The Guardians, the Brewers, The Rays, The A’s have all done this with much success over the past two decades. It can be done if the franchise is smart about it.

[Redsfan6272]

I agree the Reds should be spending to build a winner. I’ve been saying this for years, that the Reds payroll should be around $200M every season. I am just discussing what is realistic knowing what the payroll will actually be.

I disagree that building through the farm is failed concept. The Guardians, the Brewers, The Rays, The A’s have all done this with much success over the past two decades. It can be done if the franchise is smart about it.

Reds dont plan to win anytime soon.. Thats their plan for the fans.. love to see opening day NOT sell out, that would send a message

[Big Klu]

Reds dont plan to win anytime soon.. Thats their plan for the fans.. love to see opening day NOT sell out, that would send a message

#whereyagonnago

[Bourgeois Zee]

I said there was a pause. Are you denying that the Reds were rebuilding in 2016-2019? Are you trying to argue that the Reds acquired nothing of value for this current rebuild during those years?

It's not a "pause." You know that. You're trying to play a semantic game that I'm unwilling to play.

The Reds "went for it" for 2020 and 2021. They spent "some" money. That is the opposite of rebuilding.

[757690]

It's not a "pause." You know that. You're trying to play a semantic game that I'm unwilling to play.

The Reds "went for it" for 2020 and 2021. They spent "some" money. That is the opposite of rebuilding.

Cool. They went for it. It’s semantics as you said. It doesn’t change the reality.

The Reds currently are still benefiting from the rebuilding years of 2016-2019. They acquired India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, and more during that period. This is not year one of the Reds rebuild.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Cool. They went for it. It’s semantics as you said. It doesn’t change the reality.

The Reds currently are still benefiting from the rebuilding years of 2016-2019. They acquired India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo, and more during that period. This is not year one of the Reds rebuild.

Don't move your goalposts.

This was absolutely Year One of the current rebuild, as the year before, the Reds attempted to compete by spending real money. They tried to win the pennant.

[757690]

Don't move your goalposts.

This was absolutely Year One of the current rebuild, as the year before, the Reds attempted to compete by spending real money. They tried to win the pennant.

Irrelevant.

Again, I will ask you…

Are you denying that the Reds were rebuilding in 2016-2019?

Are you trying to argue that the Reds acquired nothing of value for this current rebuild during those years?