Redszone 2022 Top 40 prospects Poll: #8

[podgejeff_]

Chase Petty enters our list as our best pitching prospect in a landslide. I'll post these faster (when I have the time) when there's an obvious winner.

1. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
2. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
3. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
4. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA 22
6. Matt McLain SS AA 23
7. Chase Petty RHP A+ 19

[mth123]

This is where it gets a little bit tougher for me. I think the guys I consider "good" prospects are all off the board and we've crossed over into the "interesting" prospect territory. Voting for Spencer Steer on his strong AAA numbers and the fact he's in the big leagues. But, looking at his average across the board tools makes me think he may wind-up a bench player. IMO, this is the year to give him 500+ big league PAs to see how he handles big league pitching. I think most of the remaining pitchers look like relievers, though some might be pretty good relievers. A pretty good reliever is probably more valuable than a bench player, so there is an argument for Williamson, Boyle, Stoudt, Abbott, Phillips and maybe Roa here, but Steer, having already succeeded at AAA, gets my vote.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Agreed on the difficulty of choosing which prospect with which to fill out the bottom of the Reds' top 10. Lots of intriguing talent. The issue is what you value more-- pedigree, production, or upside. Some have performed well, but in lower leagues. They're precociously talented, but at least two and often three or four years away. Some have performed adequately at upper levels, but don't have the scouting tools that often determine if they'll get a chance to play through mistakes. Still others have monstrous upside, performed well in lower leagues, then struggled in advanced leagues. These guys typically need a change in team, coaching, or role-- and sometimes they need to just get cut loose.

The guys I considered for the 8th spot were:
- Levi Stoudt
- Brandon Williamson
- Spencer Steer
- Sal Stewart
- Carlos Jorge
- Joe Boyle
- Andrew Abbott
- Conner Phillips

Let's tackle the hitter first. Sal Stewart is a real upside play. He was considered among the better HS bats in the country. His only knock is that he plays the corners. I'm less concerned about that than would-be prospect evaluators, as I recognize the Reds' desperate need for offense-- indeed, baseball might be going through its nadir of bat-first elite sluggers.There just aren't that many left-- and those that are left often get discounted as prospects despite the sport-wide need for big boppers. If he can hit, Stewart should be ranked high. Unfortunately, so far, all he's been able to give us are a handful of PAs. He just didn't get enough playing time, though I do like what he's done so far.

Carlos Jorge has a (much) longer history of production and has shown an affinity for really killing the ball. He's a middle of the field defender-- a real plus runner who could steal 40+ bags per season and (IMO) man CF or 2B well enough to be a cornerstone fixture at the position. Love his youth too-- he's a couple years younger than league average and still among the best players in the DSL and ACL. That bodes well for his future. That said, we're talking about complex ball-- I'm going to need more for a top 10 spot. Wait until next season-- or perhaps the next pick.

Spencer Steer is probably going to win this poll. He showed good power in AA and AAA last season after a swing change. He's a baseball rat too-- for a certain segment of Red fan, that automatically makes them fans. He's a three- or four-position guy, capable across the infield. And that's part of why I'm not sure I like him all that much. He's the classic 'tweener-- probably not a good enough glove for 2B and not a good enough bat for 3B. And it's not like he doesn't have warts. In his taste of big league life, he was atrocious. His numbers were worryingly poor. He didn't hit for power-- his supposed bread and butter-- and didn't hit for average. He did take a walk and play adequate defense. I like Steer as a utility guy capable of being league average-ish across the infield. Think cheap Kyle Farmer (and like Farmer, he might well evolve into a short-side platoon guy similar to the way Farmer should be used if he's not going to catch). Is that enough for the number 8 spot in a loaded system? Not for me.

That leaves the pitching. Which has been unfairly maligned by some Red fans as nearly hopeless.

Most of these guys followed the same path-- pinball numbers in High A Dayton, then struggle bus in AA Chattanooga. Phillips, Boyle, and Abbott all really struggled to throw strikes, but showed off dominant H/9 and K% stuff in Dayton. High A WHiPs were low (largely because of extremely low hit totals). Cincinnati focuses on spin rates and throwing your best pitches regardless of time. That resulted in lots and lots of walks when that trio moved up to AA. Part of the issue there as well was that all three were basically thrown to the AA wolves after they'd hit professional inning peaks. They'd thrown a ton of innings on the five-man schedule largely for the first time, then were pushed aggressively to the toughest hurdle in minor league baseball after having pitched for half a season. That's a lot to ask. All three guys threw better as the AA season wore on-- I suspect they'd have put up adequate numbers given enough innings. Still, they'll have to show that this season.

Brandon Williamson was the same type of guy. Lots of AA walks-- more than a guy with his stuff should ever give up. His season was perhaps the most disappointing in the Cincinnati pipeline. Acquired before the season as the lynchpin of the first Seattle deal, he was largely just... bad. But here's the thing, though: the stuff that made him a Top 100 prospect is still there. And he's going to get a shot, for sure.

The same thing largely happened with Stoudt in Seattle. Phenomenal stuff-- elite stuff-- but underwhelming overall numbers. Except Stoudt's AAA numbers were actually kinda okay. And his AA peripherals weren't horrid either. Way too many hits per 9 with Seattle, but that's a Red minor league strength-- limiting hits. 3.32 ERA in 19 IP in AAA added to five innings of AA shutout baseball after the trade and 19 H in 24 IP indicate they pushed him to just trust his best pitches and stuff. Too, his AA struggles can be laid at least partially at the feet of being given a bit more rope post-TJ surgery and jumping to AA. And make no mistake, the kid's got the stuff. Various scouting reports indicate he can get his fastball up to 97 with a backfoot 12-to-6 curve, an average slider, and a plus change. That's a starter's package right there. And he's relatively old and has a track record of being dependable. If the Reds decide not to sign free agents-- remarkably likely-- Stoudt and Williamson are going to undoubtedly get first crack at the fifth starter's spot. With his better AAA numbers and wider variety of pitches, I suspect Stoudt will be the more effective of the two. I see a BOR SP capable of providing solid innings for a few years.

My vote is for Levi Stoudt.

[MikeS21]

I went with Steer. I didn’t get too worked up over his poor 98 AB’s at the major league level. I did not expect him to come out like gang busters and win any player of the month awards. He performed fine at AA and AAA. I expect his numbers to be better as he acclimates and adjusts to big league pitching.

I think we’re too quick to write prospects off over poor starts and small samples.

[marcshoe]

I voted for Williamson on possibilities, but man, those walks. See what he does in 2023. It's a big year for him. He'll be 25 in April.

[Kc61]

I sense Brandon Williamson trending up. Since coming to the Reds’ system he hasn’t done very well. At AAA, his K rate is below 8, his walk rate is above 6, his GB rate is 32%. His home run allowed rate is good, but with a 47% fly ball rate, hard to sustain, and that’s why his xFIP over 6.

I have trouble putting him in the top ten, I prefer Abbott as a starter candidate. If Williamson was injured, or there’s some other answer to his recent performance, I’d like to hear it.

[dfs]

Sal Stewart is a real upside play. He was considered among the better HS bats in the country. His only knock is that he plays the corners. I'm less concerned about that than would-be prospect evaluators, as I recognize the Reds' desperate need for offense-- indeed, baseball might be going through its nadir of bat-first elite sluggers.There just aren't that many left-- and those that are left often get discounted as prospects despite the sport-wide need for big boppers. If he can hit, Stewart should be ranked high. Unfortunately, so far, all he's been able to give us are a handful of PAs. He just didn't get enough playing time, though I do like what he's done so far.

If we're comfortable putting Collier at the 3rd spot in the list, then Stewart belongs in one of the next few slots.

I simply don't know what to do with the pitchers. They could turn into something and they could turn into a pile of something else. It's good to have quantity, but I don't feel comfortable choosing one over the other. One of them is likely going to succeed, but ellefeyeknow which one.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If we're comfortable putting Collier at the 3rd spot in the list, then Stewart belongs in one of the next few slots.

I simply don't know what to do with the pitchers. They could turn into something and they could turn into a pile of something else. It's good to have quantity, but I don't feel comfortable choosing one over the other. One of them is likely going to succeed, but ellefeyeknow which one.

I think we discount the possibility that several of them are likely to turn into solid relievers.

I suspect Boyle will end up a very good late-inning guy. Abbott, Williamson, Stoudt, and Phillips all could as well.

And that's not a bad thing at all. They could well shorten games substantially.

[herbdizzle]

I went with Alex McGarry here. He's probably farther down most lists but I like his power numbers across multiple levels and proximity to the bigs at AAA. I see him as a potential Votto replacement if he repeats his AA numbers in Louisville.

[mth123]

I went with Alex McGarry here. He's probably farther down most lists but I like his power numbers across multiple levels and proximity to the bigs at AAA. I see him as a potential Votto replacement if he repeats his AA numbers in Louisville.

I have McGarry on my sleeper list. Worry that K/BB ratio means he'll be a lot like Aquino in the big leagues. I definitely want to see him get a chance and see how he does.

[Kinsm]

McGarry wouldn't even make my top 50.

[herbdizzle]

McGarry wouldn't even make my top 50.

Eh. I'll put some respect on the name of the guy with 2nd most Homers and OPS amongst Reds minor leaguers that were here all year. K rate is high but so is a lot of other highly regarded prospects.

I qualified my pick knowing I'm higher than most on him.

[Tom Servo]

Eh. I'll put some respect on the name of the guy with 2nd most Homers and OPS amongst Reds minor leaguers that were here all year. K rate is high but so is a lot of other highly regarded prospects.

Ibandel Isabel hit 61 HRs in his two-ish years with the Reds org. He's on the side of a milk carton now.

[Betterread]

Eh. I'll put some respect on the name of the guy with 2nd most Homers and OPS amongst Reds minor leaguers that were here all year. K rate is high but so is a lot of other highly regarded prospects.

I qualified my pick knowing I'm higher than most on him.

You get my respect for backing a fringe prospect. Most people just vote for the consensus choice. The world is a better place because of those that don’t follow the herd. The US Midwest is full of sheep following the herd.

[bah1286]

Did not expect Steer to be an easy choice here. I don’t dislike Steer but view him more as a guy with bench bat upside. There is a lot of value of strong relief pitchers and I think there are several with high leverage reliever upside on the list that I would vote for before Steer. I also like Stewart just because I think there is much more upside there.