Redszone 2022 Top 40 prospects Poll: #9

[podgejeff_]

Spencer Steer joins the top 10. The Cincinnati infield looks set for the forseeable future. Joining the discussion are Carlos Jorge, Austin Hendrick, and Christian Roa.

1. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
2. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
3. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
4. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA 22
6. Matt McLain SS AA 23
7. Chase Petty RHP A+ 19
8. Spencer Steer INF MLB 24

[WrongVerb]

I'm going Siani here, since he, like Steer, has made it to the majors. He also had a really solid season (his best) at AA this year. I've got him penciled in at CF on opening day next year.

[mth123]

We've reached a spot where there are 5 pitchers who are close to each other - Williamson, Phillips, Abbott, Stoudt and Boyle. I'm skeptical of any of those becoming a usable big-league starter. I like Phillips the best as a starter with Abbott and maybe Stoudt also in that mix, but I think all five could be pretty effective relievers. In that role, the one who I think has the most upside is Joe Boyle. I have visions of Rob Dibble version 2.0 with Boyle and if he turns out to be that, he'll be more valuable than many of the guys who have already been selected. He'll definitely need to cut the walks but has been dominant otherwise. Shorter stints as a reliever may allow him to throw his less effective pitches less often (or not at all) which might lead to some improvement in that area. He'll also be able to unleash his 100 MPH stuff without worrying about saving something for later. Less exposure to hitters because he's not going through a line-up multiple times will also help. Based on raw stuff and pure dominance so far, he's my pick for this spot.

[Bourgeois Zee]

We've reached a spot where there are 5 pitchers who are close to each other - Williamson, Phillips, Abbott, Stoudt and Boyle. I'm skeptical of any of those becoming a usable big-league starter. I like Phillips the best as a starter with Abbott and maybe Stoudt also in that mix, but I think all five could be pretty effective relievers. In that role, the one who I think has the most upside is Joe Boyle. I have visions of Rob Dibble version 2.0 with Boyle and if he turns out to be that, he'll be more valuable than many of the guys who have already been selected. He'll definitely need to cut the walks but has been dominant otherwise. Shorter stints as a reliever may allow him to throw his less effective pitches less often (or not at all) which might lead to some improvement in that area. He'll also be able to unleash his 100 MPH stuff without worrying about saving something for later. Less exposure to hitters because he's not going through a line-up multiple times will also help. Based on raw stuff and pure dominance so far, he's my pick for this spot.

Boyle's an erudite pick, and your analysis is well thought out.

The Reds don't have to make each of these guys into starters. They already have three and will likely cobble the rest of the rotation together with waiver wire claims, washed-out veterans, bailing twine, spit, and Johnson's guile. They can afford to be patient with Stoudt and Williamson, who both have spent time in AAA, as they learn how to throw strikes. And if they don't, they can still contribute greatly to future wins as relief arms.

I think the floor for all five pitchers is as league average or better relief arms.

To have five of them nearly ready is a true weapon and not something that happens all that often. I'm unsure which of them will end up starters (though gun to head, I'd go Stoudt, Phillips, Williamson, Abbott, Boyle), and at this point, I'm not sure it matters overmuch. Even if you treat them as RP, they look like good relief pitchers.

[MikeS21]

I see a lot of 11-20 ranked prospects listed, but no one who really jumps out as top 10. I went with Siani for #9, simply because of defense. Any offense he provides is icing on the cake.

[mth123]

Boyle's an erudite pick, and your analysis is well thought out.

The Reds don't have to make each of these guys into starters. They already have three and will likely cobble the rest of the rotation together with waiver wire claims, washed-out veterans, bailing twine, spit, and Johnson's guile. They can afford to be patient with Stoudt and Williamson, who both have spent time in AAA, as they learn how to throw strikes. And if they don't, they can still contribute greatly to future wins as relief arms.

I think the floor for all five pitchers is as league average or better relief arms.

To have five of them nearly ready is a true weapon and not something that happens all that often. I'm unsure which of them will end up starters (though gun to head, I'd go Stoudt, Phillips, Williamson, Abbott, Boyle), and at this point, I'm not sure it matters overmuch. Even if you treat them as RP, they look like good relief pitchers.

First, I had to Google "erudite" so I guess I'm not very "erudite" when it comes to vocabulary.

I'm ready for the Reds to move a couple of these guys into relief and fast track them to the big leagues. Maybe not on opening day, but in the big-league pen (starting with lower leverage innings) by Memorial Day if they are pitching well. Just like I think Boyle might be Dibble 2.0, I think Williamson might be Norm Charlton 2.0 (minus the bowling over Mike Scioscia at home plate) if they move him to relief. That may even be better for him than Boyle. He throws 4 pitches and has command and control issues. Normally I'd want a guy with 4 pitches starting, but maybe the key to command and control is to lose a couple of those pitches and focus on his best ones.

This is why I want the Reds to sign a starter or two. Leave Cessa in the pen. Move Boyle and Williamson with an eye toward a big league debut fairly early in the season. With Diaz on board and Antone and Santillan returning, I think the reds have most of the fix for their pen in house. Just need to purge the career minor leaguers and always injured up and down guys getting too many innings. They need to bring in a late inning lefty and guys like Farmer, SanMartin and Overton could play secondary roles. Let Stoudt pitch in the in the AAA rotation unless he kicks the door down. While he has appeared in AAA, it was 19 innings and is pretty meaningless as far as experience or reading anything into any stats he accumulated - especially when he wasn't very good in AA over a much larger sample. IMO, he has yet to make a successful jump from A+ at this point. I like his profile, but at this point he's the last of these 5 pitchers in my personal rankings. Phillips and Abbott should probably keep starting at the AA level and see what happens. Abbot may be in line for a promotion to AAA fairly early in the year and would be a realistic depth option for 2023.

My list starting here for the next 5 picks is Boyle, Williamson, Phillips, Abbot, Stoudt. If they plan on Williamson and Boyle being big league starters, they fall behind the other three and a few other guys like Hendrick, Siani and some of the younger guys.

[RedTeamGo!]

I think Phillips has the highest upside here and floor is a major league reliever.

Mcgarry shouldn't even be on this list yet.

[Mitri]

I picked Williamson based on him becoming a really useful LH setup man.

But I can’t like mth’s above post enough. It’s a very solid plan for the near-term, the biggest challenge being the Reds spending on a decent arm for the rotation. It doesn’t have to be flashy.

At some point they’ll need to make a decision on these guys. Williamson and Boyle are the two I’d convert right away.

[Alpha Zero]

This is where things get messy. I’ll go with Sal Stewart here. Lots of upside in his bat but obviously not enough professional data to extrapolate much yet.

[Bourgeois Zee]

At some point they’ll need to make a decision on these guys. Williamson and Boyle are the two I’d convert right away.

I don't see the need to hurry.

Williamson and Stoudt will be with the parent club this year. They might even make the team out of Spring Training-- as relievers, starters, or as swingmen.

Boyle, Phillips, and Abbott will be in AA for a couple of months or so, then in Louisville to end the season, most likely. That means they'll be with the Reds either as this season winds down or early in 2024.

That's five arms to navigate. I'm not sure I want five rookie arms on the staff at the same time. Better, I think, to have Williamson and Stoudt break through this year and be patient with Abbott, Boyle, and Phillips. If they are dominant, plans might change. Same thing for injury, obviously, and effectiveness. And I'd wait until the very last moment to move Boyle to relief. That guy, if he ever gets his BBs down to 4.5/9, is a true TOR arm. He's got a ridiculous fastball and an even better slider. He allowed a total of 46 hits on the season-- 4.1/9. Even as he "struggled" in AA, he allowed 7.3. You give guys like that every opportunity to show you they might end up starters.

[podgejeff_]

I think Phillips has the highest upside here and floor is a major league reliever.

Mcgarry shouldn't even be on this list yet.

He was requested. I give the people what they want.

[HokieRed]

Phillips, in my view, has the most upside of the pitchers. Unlike mth, I think these guys should be kept as starters as long as possible. They're not close enough yet--with the possible exception of Stoudt--to be converted to relievers. Boyle, in particular, needs a lot more minor league work on his control.

[Kc61]

I’d ask those voting for Williamson to comment on his statistical drop off since joining the Reds organization. It signals a potential problem and while I don’t know the answer, I couldn’t vote for him this early.

I continue to like Andrew Abbot who DOES look like a starter to me and had a solid AA season. I can’t vote for Phillips or Boyle yet because of the walk rates.

[mth123]

Why do we think Stoudt is close? He was good in 2021 at A+. In 2022 he moved up to AA and in 18 starts (87 IP) he had a 5.38 ERA with 119 baserunners and 13 HR in 87 IP. That doesn't scream ready for the majors.

The Reds dealt for him and while his stats look better, it was a whopping 24 IP between AA and AAA (basically nothing). There is no way a guy like that should even be considered for a role in the big leagues until he at least shows he can be successful above A ball, because he didn't do it last year.

[dfs]

I think I've said the same thing in the last few threads....probably one of the pitchers belongs here, but tinstaapp....I'll trust mth123's belief in Boyle just to start clearing the deck of them.
I like siani, but I've seen too many reds centerfield types implode on big league pitching. Siani has the advantage that he's still young and anybody will look good at the plate after Senzel.
Hendrick always looks good when I see him play, but not yet.