Reds 40 man roster, who needs protected

[krazzy]

Reds 40 man roster, Who would you remove? I have us as needing 10 spots. I’ll put an * by the ones I would chose. Some could be DFAd and hopefully resigned. I would like to see Kyle Farmer traded and Moustakas either traded or released but doubt that happens.

Pitchers:
Tejay Antone
Graham Ashcraft
Luis Cessa
Fernando Cruz*
Alexis Díaz
Kyle Dowdy*
Daniel Duarte
Justin Dunn
Buck Farmer
Ian Gibaut*
Hunter Greene
Vladimir Gutierrez
Jeff Hoffman*
Joel Kuhnel
Derek Law*
Nick Lodolo
Dauri Moreta
Connor Overton
Reiver Sanmartin
Tony Santillan
Lucas Sims
Jared Solomon*
Art Warren*

Catchers:
Tyler Stephenson

Infielders:
Jose Barrero
Kyle Farmer
Jonathan India
Alejo Lopez
Matt Reynolds*
Spencer Steer
Joey Votto

Outfielders:
Aristides Aquino*
Allan Cerda
Stuart Fairchild*
Jake Fraley
TJ Friedl
Nick Senzel
Michael Siani
Nick Solack

Designated Hitter:
Mike Moustakas

Players I would strongly consider adding to the 40 man roster to protect from the rule 5 draft. The first 4 are locks. Ivan Johnson is an almost lock. I would like to add the first 9 but hard decisions would have to be made on who to take off. I think it would be safe not to add Vellojin. It would be awful hard for a team to keep him on the active roster all season. First 4 are locks. I would rather have Hopkins than a couple if outfielders currently on the roster. He has more power.

1. De La Cruz
2. Noelvi Marte
3. Brandon Williamson
4. Levi Stoudt
5. Ivan Johnson
6. TJ Hopkins
7. Lyon Richardson
8. Ricky Karcher
9. Ryan Nutof
10. Daniel Vellojin

[mth123]

Reds 40 man roster, Who would you remove? I have us as needing 10 spots. I’ll put an * by the ones I would chose. Some could be DFAd and hopefully resigned. I would like to see Kyle Farmer traded and Moustakas either traded or released but doubt that happens.

Pitchers:
Tejay Antone
Graham Ashcraft
Luis Cessa
Fernando Cruz*
Alexis Díaz
Kyle Dowdy*
Daniel Duarte
Justin Dunn
Buck Farmer
Ian Gibaut*
Hunter Greene
Vladimir Gutierrez
Jeff Hoffman*
Joel Kuhnel
Derek Law*
Nick Lodolo
Dauri Moreta
Connor Overton
Reiver Sanmartin
Tony Santillan
Lucas Sims
Jared Solomon*
Art Warren*

Catchers:
Tyler Stephenson

Infielders:
Jose Barrero
Kyle Farmer
Jonathan India
Alejo Lopez
Matt Reynolds*
Spencer Steer
Joey Votto

Outfielders:
Aristides Aquino*
Allan Cerda
Stuart Fairchild*
Jake Fraley
TJ Friedl
Nick Senzel
Michael Siani
Nick Solack

Designated Hitter:
Mike Moustakas

Players I would strongly consider adding to the 40 man roster to protect from the rule 5 draft. The first 4 are locks. Ivan Johnson is an almost lock. I would like to add the first 9 but hard decisions would have to be made on who to take off. I think it would be safe not to add Vellojin. It would be awful hard for a team to keep him on the active roster all season. First 4 are locks. I would rather have Hopkins than a couple if outfielders currently on the roster. He has more power.

1. De La Cruz
2. Noelvi Marte
3. Brandon Williamson
4. Levi Stoudt
5. Ivan Johnson
6. TJ Hopkins
7. Lyon Richardson
8. Ricky Karcher
9. Ryan Nutof
10. Daniel Vellojin

They don't need 10 spots. The only guys they'd lose for sure in Rule 5 are De La Cruz, Marte, Williamson and Stoudt. They have enough chaff to cut that I'd probably protect Vellojin and Hopkins. A guy not listed that I might consider is James Free so lets add him and leave a spot open for a rule 5 pick. That means 8 cuts. Pretty easy for me.

1. Non-tender 5 guys - Senzel, Aquino, K. Farmer, Sims and Hoffman.
2. DFA the following. Art Warren, Kyle Dowdy, Ian Gibaut
3. I'd also be fine cutting loose Law, Cruz and other 30 something career minor leaguers who I may have missed.

I keep Reynolds as the UI until some kids start getting promoted. No reason to cut Solomon. He's young enough to still develop and he has options to ride the AAA shuttle. Fairchild is the best RH bat they have for the OF at the moment and plays adequate defense at all three spots. I have him as a lock for the 26-man roster.

3 others I'd cut if the Reds need roster spots are Justin Dunn, Joel Kuhnel and Vlad Gutierrez (need an injury settlement with him I think), but they all have options, so may as well keep them for now.

The Reds pitching, other than a few guys, is not major league caliber. Some of these guys look decent when compared to others the reds have run out there, but these guys are minor leaguers IMO.

If the Reds can get a lower cost deal than the arb numbers being floated out there with Kyle Farmer, I'd be happy to keep him around and add Law to the cut list.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Players I would strongly consider adding to the 40 man roster to protect from the rule 5 draft. The first 4 are locks. Ivan Johnson is an almost lock. I would like to add the first 9 but hard decisions would have to be made on who to take off. I think it would be safe not to add Vellojin. It would be awful hard for a team to keep him on the active roster all season. First 4 are locks. I would rather have Hopkins than a couple if outfielders currently on the roster. He has more power.

1. De La Cruz
2. Noelvi Marte
3. Brandon Williamson
4. Levi Stoudt
5. Ivan Johnson
6. TJ Hopkins
7. Lyon Richardson
8. Ricky Karcher
9. Ryan Nutof
10. Daniel Vellojin

I'd add those six. Cruz, Marte, Williamson, and Stoudt are all easy choices, of course. I don't protect Ivan Johnson. And that is likely a poor decision. He might well be the exact type of defense-first 2B baseball is moving (back) to. I really like him as an up the middle guy with power and a bit of patience. He can also play SS and 3B adequately enough to be a three-position infield backup. IMO, Johnson should be able to out-contribute Alejo Lopez. That said, I'm not sure Lopez will even be on the roster. Nick Solak can play 2B well enough that he can be a backup there, and the Reds have about 15 guys who can play 3B already on their roster. Were Johnson to take up a CF glove, I'd like him a lot more-- he's got the speed for it. I wish the Reds would have tried that. Sigh.

Speaking of the OF, I keep TJ Hopkins as a platoon bat and depth piece. This assumes the Reds are unlikely to do much of anything in free agency, including adding anyone on a major league contract. He can play all three positions and has options left-- in case of emergency, his blend of a solid tools isn't the worst choice. I like him more, for example, than Aristides Aquino or Nick Senzel. I definitely like him as a backup more than Mike Siani. (Siani needs to start in Cincinnati or Louisville.)

I'm also protecting Ricky Karcher, if only because I suspect the Cincinnati plan (such as it is) is to ignore free agency nearly completely, acquire castoffs around the edges, and make ownership tens of millions in baseball welfare while allowing the parent club to suck/ tank. Karcher's last month and a half was very good-- he went from walking the entire ballpark to adequate control. He does have a very good fastball and a solid breaking ball-- he's the type of gamble I wish the Reds would make on another team's Rule 5 list, so he stays.

This is obviously before seeing any lists from other squads. Should there be some real talent out there, I might change my last couple of picks/ saves.

I do think keeping Karcher, Hopkins, and company for now, then exposing them to waivers later is a sound baseball move. That's one reason why releasing Moustakas now makes sense.

Were I in charge, I'd release Aquino, Reynolds, Warren, Law, Gibaut, Dowdly, and Cruz. That gets me one roster spot I spend on the Rule 5. (If there are more attractive pieces, I get rid of Duarte, Kuhnel, and/or Moreta.

Currently, I'd keep Senzel, if for no other reason than CF is a vast chasm of suck across baseball right now. I suspect he has a tiny bit of trade value. (If he doesn't, releasing him is also acceptable.)

[Kc61]

If Reds need ten open spots next week, as the OP suggests, likely most initial cuts will be pitchers.

Reds only have 17 position players. Unless they plan to be highly acquisitive, I only see a few position players among initial cuts.

I think Aquino will be moved, beyond that maybe Lopez, Reynolds.

I could also see trades. For example, maybe Kyle Farmer, he costs some money now. I doubt they cut Moose outright, but it’s possible if the FO is determined to move on.

I’m sure there will be a surprise or two and, then, later in the off-season more changes.

[mth123]

After reading more on Ricky Karcher and looking at his stats, I think I'd add him as well which would make Derek Law and immediate release/non-tender in addition to what I showed earlier. Like Gibaut, Law is old for the spot he'd be taking, probably doesn't make the team if everyone is healthy and he's out of options, so no sense keeping him around. Karcher is younger with options and seems pretty good at missing bats and limiting HR, both important in Cincy. He walks too many guys, but you can work around that with a low leverage reliever, which is what he'd be until he cuts those walks.