Redszone 2023 Top 40 prospects Poll: #10

[Bourgeois Zee]

Not many stats I care about less for pitching prospects than H/9 in the lower minors...

Why would you not care about H/9? It indicates the stuff of the pitcher in question.

If a guy's got a H/9 over 9, he's remarkably likely to be chaff. Put another way, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Aroldis Chapman, Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Alexis Diaz, post-Driveline Tejay Antone-- the most successful pitchers developed (even in part) by the Reds aren't all high K guys. They aren't all low BB guys. They haven't all had smooth sailing through the minors.

They have all been hard to hit.

Now, I realize that's not fool-proof-- Robert Stephenson's minor league career H/9 of 7.1 says hi-- but it's a pretty solid indication you're not dealing with the Sal Romanos and Cody Reeds of the world, but are focused instead of a higher grade of stuff.

[*BaseClogger*]

Why would you not care about H/9? It indicates the stuff of the pitcher in question.

No, that's strikeout rate (or swing and miss rate). Too many confounding variables inherent in H/9...

[Bourgeois Zee]

No, that's strikeout rate (or swing and miss rate). Too many confounding variables inherent in H/9...

Ooh, I disagree. Too often, K rate indicates a good changeup or offspeed pitch, especially in the lower minors.

[Kc61]

Of course they all need to work on walks. But, vis a vis Phillips, 21 year olds who K 12 per 9 at AA are likely to be pretty wild. The whole issue is whether he's going to be able to reduce his W rate significantly enough. If he were walking 2.5 per 9 he'd be the number 1 prospect on this list.

Phillips walked 6.7 per nine innings at AA and had a WHIP of 1.8.

Maybe one can argue small sample, I think that’s fair.

But I don’t accept that those pitching rates are normal or routine for high caliber prospects.

[marcshoe]

I voted for Levi Stoudt while thinking Joe Boyle, but that's okay; I'm not a big believer in anyone at this point.

[*BaseClogger*]

Ooh, I disagree. Too often, K rate indicates a good changeup or offspeed pitch, especially in the lower minors.

Wouldn't want that!

In all seriousness, with the velocity Phillips possesses, if he's racking up all those Ks with a good changeup I like him even more than I thought...

[Betterread]

Wouldn't want that!

In all seriousness, with the velocity Phillips possesses, if he's racking up all those Ks with a good changeup I like him even more than I thought...

Phillips does not have an off speed pitch for LHhitters. He has a good curve, but it moves away from RHs but into LHs. He needs an off speed pitch that breaks away from them. I assume he is working on it this offseason. That means it’s a work in progress, not a good change up.

[*BaseClogger*]

Phillips does not have an off speed pitch for LHhitters. He has a good curve, but it moves away from RHs but into LHs. He needs an off speed pitch that breaks away from them. I assume he is working on it this offseason. That means it’s a work in progress, not a good change up.

I guess the good news is that he didn't have splits last season.

vRHB .235/.328/.343
vLHB .203/.354/.330

[camisadelgolf]

Why would you not care about H/9? It indicates the stuff of the pitcher in question.

If a guy's got a H/9 over 9, he's remarkably likely to be chaff. Put another way, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Aroldis Chapman, Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Alexis Diaz, post-Driveline Tejay Antone-- the most successful pitchers developed (even in part) by the Reds aren't all high K guys. They aren't all low BB guys. They haven't all had smooth sailing through the minors.

They have all been hard to hit.

Now, I realize that's not fool-proof-- Robert Stephenson's minor league career H/9 of 7.1 says hi-- but it's a pretty solid indication you're not dealing with the Sal Romanos and Cody Reeds of the world, but are focused instead of a higher grade of stuff.

Context is everything. Sometimes players have a funky delivery. Sometimes they have a screwball or knuckleball. Sometimes they have a unique arm angle. I agree that H/9 is an indication of quality, but I wouldn't say it's as reliable as K/9 when it comes to the upper minors. But where it gets particularly interesting is when you combine both of those with K/BB. The lower the walk rate, the more okay it is to have a lower strikeout rate. I'm no scout, but if you already have the velocity and spin, I feel like it's more difficult to teach command than a quality pitch.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Context is everything. Sometimes players have a funky delivery. Sometimes they have a screwball or knuckleball. Sometimes they have a unique arm angle. I agree that H/9 is an indication of quality, but I wouldn't say it's as reliable as K/9 when it comes to the upper minors. But where it gets particularly interesting is when you combine both of those with K/BB. The lower the walk rate, the more okay it is to have a lower strikeout rate. I'm no scout, but if you already have the velocity and spin, I feel like it's more difficult to teach command than a quality pitch.

Which is why I presaged my point with "in the low minors."

I'm all for guys who miss bats. Give me those guys, if all else is equal.

I'm just saying that H/9 tends to be a better predictor of a quality prospect/ solid major league contributor in the lower minors than does K rate. (All sorts of caveats here-- relief pitchers and small samples can be issues, health, stuff and arm changes, etc., etc.) I thought it was interesting that someone who follows the minor leagues discounts the stat entirely.