Redszone 2023 Top 40 prospects Poll: #13

[podgejeff_]

Andrew Abbott wins a close one for #12. Replacing him is Logan Tanner. Let's keep this thing rolling.

01. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
02. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
03. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
04. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19
05. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA 22
06. Matt McLain SS AA 23
07. Chase Petty RHP A+ 19
08. Spencer Steer INF MLB 24
09. Brandon Williamson LHP AAA 24
10. Connor Phillips RHP AA 21
11. Sal Stewart 3B ROK 18
12. Andrew Abbott LHP AA 23

[podgejeff_]

I must say I'm a little surprised there's not any Stoudt vs. Boyle discussion going on in this one.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I must say I'm a little surprised there's not any Stoudt vs. Boyle discussion going on in this one.

Everyone's pretty much staked out their opinion already.

That's typically what happens in these threads, IIRC. Lots of discussion early, then it wanes. It's not because of interest, but because we've already said what we wanted to.

Stoudt, IMO, has better control and less stuff. I typically bet on stuff, but Boyle's control is incredibly poor.

I do like Boyle as a Tanner Rainey type relief arm-- and think he'd be valuable in that role.

I just think Stoudt is more likely to reach his upside-- that of a BOR SP-- than Boyle is to reach that same level.

(At this point, it's splitting hairs anyway. All five of the prospective pitchers in AA and AAA are pretty interchangeable on my list. And I expect many others as well.)

[Bourgeois Zee]

What's interesting is who'll be picked after the AA/ AAA pitchers (and perhaps Siani).

Jay Allen, Austin Hendrick, Rece Hinds, and Alex McGarry all seem to have fans.

Personally, I'm leaning toward either Allen, Carlos Jorge, Tyler Callihan, Jose Acuna, Christian Roa, or Bryce Bonnin.

Don't know which way I'm leaning, either.

[Kc61]

Big drop off after Abbott IMO. I’ll vote for Allen, then Hendrick. Allen has more traction in the poll and has all those tools. Hendrick still very young started to show through last season at Dayton.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Big drop off after Abbott IMO. I’ll vote for Allen, then Hendrick. Allen has more traction in the poll and has all those tools. Hendrick still very young started to show through last season at Dayton.

The talent level doesn't drop-- just the ability to decipher which prospects might blossom.

Will a 20-year-old Jay Allen explode when put in full-season ball in a fairer offensive park next season? He might well do so. The kid jumped a level in his first taste of professional ball despite being just 19 last year. He turns 20 tomorrow and didn't hit the ball with the authority some thought he might after being drafted. Part of that might well be body (and swing) maturation.

How about 19-year-old Carlos Jorge (or any of the seemingly multitude of DSL SS in the system) in full-season ball? What happens if he's able to slug .450 in the Florida State League after showing big-time pop in the Dominican and Arizona?

How good will 20-year-old Jose Acuna's numbers look in Daytona? (And will we be able to trust any of them?) That kid might end up putting up pinball numbers and be kept in the league due to a pitching backlog.

In 2021, Christian Roa and Bryce Bonnin struggled with injuries for the second season in a row. What happens if they stay healthy in AA this season? Both pitchers put up solid to excellent numbers in limited opportunities. Both might end up in the bullpen. (Lyon Richardson too, ftr. He should probably be on this list soon.) Both could be fast movers. If they can stay healthy, I suspect each would rank right there (or perhaps above) the five guys we've got slightly ahead of them.

None of this mentions the trio of Hendrick, Hinds, and Callihan, who could all make some noise this season as Lookouts. They need PAs and swings. Maybe Hendrick and Hinds find a swing that isn't mostly Swiss cheese. Maybe Callihan stays healthy.

Lots of talent that's usually reserved for the back-end of most team's top 10 list might well be ten or 15 spots below that for Cincinnati this season.

[HokieRed]

I must say I'm a little surprised there's not any Stoudt vs. Boyle discussion going on in this one.

There was in my head and I went narrowly for Stoudt. Boyle or Cabrera next.

[Bourgeois Zee]

There was in my head and I went narrowly for Stoudt. Boyle or Cabrera next.

That guy's impossible for me to rank.

He struggled so badly early, then hit late. He has a true iron glove too.

The scouting reports are all you have to go on, and those are notoriously fickle for 16-year-olds. But his scouting reports are really, really good.

I can't rank him above guys already hitting in the states and will probably end up having he and Jose Torres (whom I like as a defensive-minded utility guy who can play SS/ 2B/ 3B really well, with good pop, speed, and no BA) ranked similarly.

Then again, Cabrera's scouting report is tasty-- and he's 17.

[podgejeff_]

That guy's impossible for me to rank.

He struggled so badly early, then hit late. He has a true iron glove too.

The scouting reports are all you have to go on, and those are notoriously fickle for 16-year-olds. But his scouting reports are really, really good.

I can't rank him above guys already hitting in the states and will probably end up having he and Jose Torres (whom I like as a defensive-minded utility guy who can play SS/ 2B/ 3B really well, with good pop, speed, and no BA) ranked similarly.

Then again, Cabrera's scouting report is tasty-- and he's 17.

You could pretty much mirror that post, but add a glove and a year older, for Victor Acosta.

[HokieRed]

Acosta's interesting too. Who knows how to rate them? I like Cabrera's size slightly over Acosta's. Profiles better, especially with the age difference.

[podgejeff_]

Lots of talent that's usually reserved for the back-end of most team's top 10 list might well be ten or 15 spots below that for Cincinnati this season.

We have so many talented/pedigreed guys in the system the odds are good that at least one is going to take a pretty decent step forward. What's this farm look like in a year in a hypothetical where Sal Stewart crushes A ball, Chase Petty pitches like a 20 year old ace in A+/AA and we draft at the top of the draft?

[Bourgeois Zee]

What's this farm look like in a year in a hypothetical where Sal Stewart crushes A ball, Chase Petty pitches like a 20 year old ace in A+/AA and we draft at the top of the draft?

Well, EDLC will have won the ROY by then, with CES finishing second, and Brandon Williamson third, so perhaps not as good.

[mth123]

What's interesting is who'll be picked after the AA/ AAA pitchers (and perhaps Siani).

Jay Allen, Austin Hendrick, Rece Hinds, and Alex McGarry all seem to have fans.

Personally, I'm leaning toward either Allen, Carlos Jorge, Tyler Callihan, Jose Acuna, Christian Roa, or Bryce Bonnin.

Don't know which way I'm leaning, either.

Been voting for Boyle because of his upside/stuff. After the pitchers, I'll probably vote for Siani on the hope he can be Cesar Geronimo at the big-league level. Probably a below average overall bat, but still playable with a stellar glove in CF. Other than pitcher and catcher, CF looks like the weakest position in baseball to me. If Siani can be a strong defender and OPS in the .675 to .700 range, that's pretty good when I look at how many teams have CF that can't even do that (like our own Cincinnati Reds for example). After Siani, I think I'm going Hendrick. .759 OPS at A+ isn't terrible in Dayton. Legit power and decent walk percentage, some speed and baserunning, defense in RF. He'd have to step it up to get a big league shot IMO, but at this point they all will have to and he seems to be moving in the right direction at an age where he'd still be in college.

[Bourgeois Zee]

You could pretty much mirror that post, but add a glove and a year older, for Victor Acosta.

Right. He's another I have absolutely no clue about.

I'm struggling with Yerlin Confidan too, fwiw.

[Betterread]

Can you add Leonardo Balcazar SS AZL REds to the list? As an 18 yr old he slashed 322/411/476/887 with good D. And he got a mention from Fantrax (along with Carlos Jorge) as top five prospects in the AZL league. That should get him considered for the top 20.