Banning Infield Shifts Will Change MLB

[Ron Madden]

How Banning Infield Shifts Will Change MLB

Here are the 10 things to know about how the new rule will impact baseball next season.

As teams cobble together their rosters this winter, they must tackle this riddle thrown at them: How will the ban on shifts change offense and defense?

Baseball will look different next season—at least from the past seven years or so, when shifts grew prevalent, sucked more than 2,000 hits out of the game and deemphasized range at second base.

We have so much data on how shifts changed baseball that it is not difficult to make an educated guess as to what will happen next year without them. My top conclusions:

1. The MLB batting average should increase from .243 last season (the fifth-worst ever, and the worst in 54 years) to .255 (equaling the highest since 2011).

2. Ground balls will go up, and strikeouts will go down, both slightly.

3. Corey Seager of Texas and Matt Olson of Atlanta will benefit the most from the new rules.

4. The Giants need a second baseman, and the Cardinals will rethink Nolan Gorman at second base.

Here are the questions and answers that prepare us for the shift away from shifts:

1. How did shifts change baseball?
2. Don’t hitters want fewer ground balls anyway?
3. How noticeable will the change be next season?
4. Which hitters benefit the most from the ban on shifts?
5. What’s the story with Olson?
6. What does the ban mean for second base play?
7. What about line drives?
8. What is the workaround?
9. What teams are affected the most?
10. What’s the bottom line?
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continue reading:
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/11/21/ba...-shifts-impact

[OldFashionedRed]

I'm happy just reading the thread title.

[Ron Madden]

From the linked article

To understand how the game will be played in 2023, first you must understand the arc and effect of defensive shifts. They have been around since Ted Williams, but only in the past four years did they become massively prevalent and effective. The big leap began when the use of shifts doubled from 2017 to ’19—largely because of the success of the Astros and Rays, the first and only teams to exceed 30% shifts in those years. Houston won the ’17 World Series using a shift 35% of the time in the regular season—then a record, now a level exceeded by 11 teams.

Since 2019, shifts changed how the game looked and how it was played. They made the game aesthetically awkward and less entertaining, which is why a rule change was needed: to rebalance the entertainment value of baseball against its brutish efficiency. In the blend of art and science, baseball should always be more about an athletic competition than an intellectual contest among hackers.

Always remember this about shifts: They were designed to turn hard-hit balls into outs. The average ground ball is hit 86.8 mph. Most balls hit softly or at average velocity are still going to be outs next year. It’s the hard-hit ones that are more likely to become hits because more velocity = less time.

Defenders will have less time because teams can’t bunch three fielders on the pull side of the infield, and they can’t push infielders into the outfield grass to cover more ground.

With that in mind, when I looked at the year-by-year use and effect of shifts I considered hard-hit balls (90 mph or more) to be most instructive. Over the past seven years, shifts more than tripled and they reduced batting average on hard-hit grounders by 80 points!
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[plantmanky]

I doubt it, with strike outs increasing year over year, no one can hit a baseball to put it in play, and if they do it goes over a fence.


Honestly, is there a reason to have players on the field of play anymore?

[OldFashionedRed]

I doubt it, with strike outs increasing year over year, no one can hit a baseball to put it in play, and if they do it goes over a fence.


Honestly, is there a reason to have players on the field of play anymore?

I'm wondering if banning the shift will result in less K's as guys might be less willing to go after pitches that normally wouldn't go after. Also, we may see more bunts and steals

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm wondering if banning the shift will result in less K's as guys might be less willing to go after pitches that normally wouldn't go after. Also, we may see more bunts and steals

Why would we see more bunts and steals?

Because of banning the shift?

I get more steals because of the new pick-off rules and larger bases.

Why bunts?

[Wayne Krivsky]

I doubt it, with strike outs increasing year over year, no one can hit a baseball to put it in play, and if they do it goes over a fence.


Honestly, is there a reason to have players on the field of play anymore?

I think that is the major reason for shift ending though. The shift didn't create the ideology around launch angles and the three outcome approach, but it sure did escalate the process. Remove that and we may see more emphasis on balls in play. More balls in play means more emphasis on defense and so on and so on. Especially with new rules that may give an edge to base stealers we should see a shift back to some of the old school approach. I doubt we revert back to even 2005 baseball, but we will probably see an interesting median to appeal to a wider fan base.

[JCM11]

I'm pretty interested to see what Votto does next year. He had a very respectable average exit velocity last year at 89.7, but had the second highest ground ball % of his career which lead to a BAbip of .257. I'm optimistic that Votto can return his pre 2020 BAbip of over .300.

[mth123]

I'm pretty interested to see what Votto does next year. He had a very respectable average exit velocity last year at 89.7, but had the second highest ground ball % of his career which lead to a BAbip of .257. I'm optimistic that Votto can return his pre 2020 BAbip of over .300.

I'm optimistic as well. In fact, I think the Reds may invoke his option and bring him back in 2024.

[Wayne Krivsky]

I'm pretty interested to see what Votto does next year. He had a very respectable average exit velocity last year at 89.7, but had the second highest ground ball % of his career which lead to a BAbip of .257. I'm optimistic that Votto can return his pre 2020 BAbip of over .300.

It will be interesting to watch, that's for sure. I'm actually more interested to watch Votto bat with the pitch clock being implemented than the shift though. For Votto to really take advantage of the shift changes he needs to get his K rate down, which for a guy about to be 40 years old isn't an easy ask. If he can get his K rate back under 20% and keep hitting balls hard at a similar rate he could see an uptick from the shift ban. With that said though Joey getting a significant numbers bump in 2023 seems like a bad bet. On the other hand Joey Votto is maybe the most interesting hitter of all time and I would have called you dumb if you told me he would have a .930 OPS in 2021.

[Chip R]

I've had mixed feelings about the shift. But just because they have banned it, doesn't mean they can't reinstate it in the future.

[Sea Ray]

I don't think it'll make a significant impact. To me the most impactful part of shifts is plugging up the middle of the field (playing behind 2B) and they'll still manage to do that. I think the pitch clock has more of a chance to impact the game

[RollyInRaleigh]

I think you may see some infielders being exposed...


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[mth123]

I think you may see some infielders being exposed...


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Jonathon India comes to mind.

[Chip R]

I think the middle IFers may need to be more athletic. They will have to cover more ground now. Come spring, a lot of those players may end up in the "Best Shape of My Life" thread.