Redszone 2023 Top 40 prospects Poll: #14

[podgejeff_]

Joe Boyle comes in at #13. Lots of names mentioned in the last thread, but I don't mind overwhelming everybody with choices. Joining our poll are Lyon Richardson, Jose Torres, Yerlin Confidan, Julian Aguiar and Leonardo Balcazar. I'll probably keep it at 20 names from here on out, but keep suggestions coming. I'm probably going to need them in ten picks or so.

01. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
02. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
03. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
04. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19
05. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA 22
06. Matt McLain SS AA 23
07. Chase Petty RHP A+ 19
08. Spencer Steer INF MLB 24
09. Brandon Williamson LHP AAA 24
10. Connor Phillips RHP AA 21
11. Sal Stewart 3B ROK 18
12. Andrew Abbott LHP AA 23
13. Joe Boyle RHP AA 23

[mth123]

I had Boyle, Williamson, Phillips, Abbott and Stoudt as my 9 through 13 with all being really close. Stoudt is the only one left, so he gets my vote here. To me they are all very close. Stoudt's scouting profile (60 FB, 55 Slider and 60 Change) suggests he could be a successful starting pitcher, maybe more than any of the others, but he had a rough year starting in 2022, and he doesn't have the dominant pitch like Boyle's FB can be, he's not left-handed like Williamson or Abbott and he's 3 years older than Phillips, so I rated him last of the 5. They are all so close, he could easily be the guy who emerges from the pack and becomes a successful big league starting pitcher, so he gets the call here over everyone who remains.

After Stoudt I have Siani and Hendrick as my next two. Not sure where to go from there.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I had Boyle, Williamson, Phillips, Abbott and Stoudt as my 9 through 13 with all being really close. Stoudt is the only one left, so he gets my vote here. To me they are all very close. Stoudt's scouting profile (60 FB, 55 Slider and 60 Change) suggests he could be a successful starting pitcher, maybe more than any of the others, but he had a rough year starting in 2022, and he doesn't have the dominant pitch like Boyle's FB can be, he's not left-handed like Williamson or Abbott and he's 3 years older than Phillips, so I rated him last of the 5. They are all so close, he could easily be the guy who emerges from the pack and becomes a successful big league starting pitcher, so he gets the call here over everyone who remains.

After Stoudt I have Siani and Hendrick as my next two. Not sure where to go from there.

This is almost exactly my own opinion.

It'll be interesting to see who separates from the pack-- and why. That might tell us something about Red pitcher development.

[bah1286]

At this point there are guys who seem that if they hit their ceiling, they are back of the rotation or bench guys that could arrive in the next year or two. There are also guys who are a few years out who have the ceiling of an all star. I will be moving my votes to the latter of those groups.

[WrongVerb]

I continue to vote Siani, as he actually made the majors this past year.

[krazzy]

Javi Rivera would probably be in my top 20

[Bourgeois Zee]

At this point there are guys who seem that if they hit their ceiling, they are back of the rotation or bench guys that could arrive in the next year or two. There are also guys who are a few years out who have the ceiling of an all star. I will be moving my votes to the latter of those groups.

One of the primary strengths of this system is its depth of high-upside prospects.

Rece Hinds, Austin Hendrick, Tyler Callihan, Christian Roa, Bryce Bonnin, and unlikely roster depth like Allan Cerda, Daniel Vellojin, and Thomas Farr are all AA or AAA OD prospects and, if they hit their upside, are difference-makers at the major league level. Now, the likelihood they hit that upside is rather unlikely, and they do profile as JAGs (or slightly better) at the major league level. That said, MLB JAGs can be pretty valuable.

For example, let's say Austin Hendrick's able to produce at his minor league averages of .214/ .334/ .417/ .751 as a viable CF at the major league level. (Ignore his last couple of months, wherein he actually showed some semblance of understanding the strike zone and a 900+ OPS.) That'd look an awful lot like Christopher Morel, who went for a 108 wRC+, a 107 OPS+, and 1.4 bWAR. (Morel, fwiw, was a poor defender in CF.)

That WAR ranked 20th in MLB among CF and was 2.2 better than Cincinnati's Nick Senzel. That's a ton of extra value-- and could be the difference between winning and losing.

And there's no way Hendrick ranks in the top 20 prospects for the Reds. Heck, I'd argue he's not even the top upper minors CF still left in the Red pipeline. (Take a bow, Mike Siani.)

Now, if your argument is that the lower level guys (Jorge, Ascanio, Rivera, Acosta, et al.) are more valuable because not only will they likely be JAGs at a later date, but they'll also have a better likelihood of hitting higher upside, I'm all ears. (And might even agree with your assessment.) But to say the guys in AA or AAA look like scrubs would be wrong. It's that they flash superstar potential, but aren't at all consistent with it.

[camisadelgolf]

Austin Hendrick ended the season on quite a tear. I don't know how high I'll rank him, but it was always expected that it would take some time before his production started to match his tools.

Date 				G 	PA 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	IBB 	SO 	HBP 	SH 	SF 	GDP 	SB 	CS 	BA 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS 	BAbip
Aug 3 to Sep 10, 2022		27	114	94	17	24	6	0	7	28	17	0	30	2	0	1	0	10	4	.255	.377	.543	.920	.293
per 162 games			162	684	564	102	144	36	0	42	168	102	0	180	12	0	6	0	60	24	.255	.377	.543	.920	.293

[Betterread]

Why do people like Siani and Allen? They don’t hit very well in the minors. Why would that change in the majors?

[mth123]

Why do people like Siani and Allen? They don’t hit very well in the minors. Why would that change in the majors?

Because CF is a wasteland these days and with the defense they provide, if they can hit just a little, they have value. Siani has probably already done more as a big leaguer than many of the guys remaining ever will.

Siani in particular showed some promise last year in AA. 531 PAs had 38 Extra base hits, walked 64 times, great defender, good baserunner. Seems like a guy who will have a multi-season big league career and with some of the dreck playing CF around the big leagues, he may have some seasons as a regular. He may crash and burn, but at this point, that's true for everyone.

[Betterread]

Because CF is a wasteland these days and with the defense they provide, if they can hit just a little, they have value. Siani has probably already done more as a big leaguer than many of the guys remaining ever will.

Siani in particular showed some promise last year in AA. 531 PAs had 38 Extra base hits, walked 64 times, great defender, good baserunner. Seems like a guy who will have a multi-season big league career and with some of the dreck playing CF around the big leagues, he may have some seasons as a regular. He may crash and burn, but at this point, that's true for everyone.

Siani is a great athlete. He looks very limited as a hitter. Didn’t we learn our lesson with Billy Hamilton, who was a special athlete but just never learned to hit in the majors. Though he had way better numbers than Siani in the minors.

[mth123]

Siani is a great athlete. He looks very limited as a hitter. Didn’t we learn our lesson with Billy Hamilton, who was a special athlete but just never learned to hit in the majors. Though he had way better numbers than Siani in the minors.

We're not picking him for number 1. We're in the teens. They are all suspects at this point. Pretty much everybody after somewhere between the 5th to 7th name on this list the switch flipped from prospect to suspect. None of these guys in that range will be handed a spot the way Hamilton was. They will all need to knock the door down to get a shot. I'd say Hamilton actually added more value to the reds than just about any of these guys we're voting for in this range will. According to B-Ref, Billy Hamilton provided over 9 WAR to the Reds during his time here. I doubt we see that from anybody outside the top 10 on this list. I'd take an average Hamilton year during his Reds career over any season we've gotten from Nick Senzel. If Siani ends up providing 9 WAR, he'll probably be the best of what is left at this point.

[Tom Servo]

Why do people like Siani and Allen? They don’t hit very well in the minors. Why would that change in the majors?

Allen was literally 19 years old until yesterday.

[Bourgeois Zee]

According to B-Ref, Billy Hamilton provided over 9 WAR to the Reds during his time here. I doubt we see that from anybody outside the top 10 on this list.

I'd absolutely take that bet, mth.

[Alpha Zero]

Why do people like Siani and Allen? They don’t hit very well in the minors. Why would that change in the majors?

I mean … Allen is a wild card. 19 last year and a first round pick. He’s going to get the benefit of the doubt for a while as he develops because of his pedigree and upside. That’s the nature of a lot of prospect rankings when you’re in the 10-20 range.

As far as Siani is concerned, I get the desire to compare him to Hamilton, but I don’t really think they are all that comparable. They are elite CF defenders and threats to swipe a bag with some regularity, and at the plate, both showed pretty decent K rates in the minors to go along with a pretty good walk rate. However, their plate approaches are quite different. Hamilton was pretty much always a bang the ball into the ground and see what happens type. That led to BABIPs near .400 in the minors but no real power to speak of. Siani puts the ball into the air … a lot. His 14 HRs last season are more than Hamilton ever put up in the minors by a wide margin, but Siani hasn’t posted a BABIP north of .300 since hitting A ball. Siani is certainly no sure thing, but I think the batted ball data is different enough that we can’t extrapolate anything from the fact that Hamilton never did much at the plate at the MLB level.