Redszone 2023 Top 40 prospects Poll: #14

[Bourgeois Zee]

I mean … Allen is a wild card. 19 last year and a first round pick. He’s going to get the benefit of the doubt for a while as he develops because of his pedigree and upside. That’s the nature of a lot of prospect rankings when you’re in the 10-20 range.

As far as Siani is concerned, I get the desire to compare him to Hamilton, but I don’t really think they are all that comparable. They are elite CF defenders and threats to swipe a bag with some regularity, and at the plate, both showed pretty decent K rates in the minors to go along with a pretty good walk rate. However, their plate approaches are quite different. Hamilton was pretty much always a bang the ball into the ground and see what happens type. That led to BABIPs near .400 in the minors but no real power to speak of. Siani puts the ball into the air … a lot. His 14 HRs last season are more than Hamilton ever put up in the minors by a wide margin, but Siani hasn’t posted a BABIP north of .300 since hitting A ball. Siani is certainly no sure thing, but I think the batted ball data is different enough that we can’t extrapolate anything from the fact that Hamilton never did much at the plate at the MLB level.

Yup. Siani is a 65 runner. Hamilton was an 80 runner. Siani should be a very good defender. Hamilton was elite. But Siani is a better hitter, by far. He's got power that would have made Hamilton an All-Star (and perhaps Hall of Famer). [Not to get into a tangential discussion, but were Hamilton to have had even adequate pop, he'd have been the type of weapon you build an entire offense around. Alas.) I suspect it'll all work out in the wash, assuming Siani plays enough games.

And that's the rub with many of these guys. There are assuredly a dozen guys left who'll have relatively long careers as major league players. A couple of them will end up with double figure WAR totals across their careers. Statistics insist that a couple more will be first-division starters at some point, and at least one of them will end up an All-Star. We just don't know who that'll be.

There is absolutely value in prospects from beyond the top 10 guys. Those lesser "suspects" are often the reason why some teams compete year after year and others struggle to stay relevant. Too many posters view these guys as superfluous. That's just not the case. At all.

Let's go back 20 years to see an example. Cincinnati's minor league system wasn't considered particularly strong, nor was it particularly lauded for development. But it produced several helpful players-- and a couple of perennial All-Stars-- neither of whom were in the top 10 lists that season.

The Reds' prospects not in the top 10 included:
- Joey Votto (MVP)
- Chris Denorfia (Solid pro with 10+ career WAR)
- Ryan Hanigan (Solid pro with 9+ career WAR)
- Todd Coffey (Decent bullpen arm)
- Edwin Encarnacion (All-Star)

Let's assume 2002 was a blip. Happenstance. Let's go 15 year ago. 2007. Non-top 10 prospects include:
- Josh Hamilton (MVP)
- Justin Turner (Perennial All-Star)
- Devin Mesoraco (All-Star)
- Todd Frazier (All-Star)
- Zack Cozart (All-Star)

So how about a decade ago?
- Tucker Barnhart (Two-time Gold Glove)
- Amir Garrett (Solid set-up guy)
- Neftali Soto (Take a look at those Nippon League numbers!)
- Didi Gregorius (All-Star)

Five years ago looks just as suspect:
- Tyler Stepehenson (Burgeoning All-Star?)
- Jimmy Herget (Very good seasons in 2020 and 2022)
- Luis Castillo (All-Star)
- Tanner Rainey (Nats' closer)
- TJ Friedl (Reds' fourth OF)
- Tyler Mahle (MOR SP)
- Tony Santillan (Bullpen arm with upside)

[HokieRed]

Another Stoudt, then Cabrera, then Hendrick.

[Mitri]

I like Allen's upside over anyone else left on the board. He was very young in A+ last year and was working through a new swing. I think he'll be more comfortable at the plate this season and, hopefully, we'll see him turn his gap power into home runs. If he can do that and stick in CF he could be a top-100 guy this time next year.

[podgejeff_]

Why do people like Siani and Allen? They don’t hit very well in the minors. Why would that change in the majors?

In addition to the aforementioned "CF is a wasteland", I look at Siani/Allen as votes for floor/ceiling respectively. Some people respect that Siani's floor is bare minimum MLB player in some capacity, which is the name of the game here. I voted for Allen because of ceiling, which if he reaches it is prototypical leadoff hitter who plays CF. Which is incredibly valuable and increasingly rare. And Allen is very young and hasn't been doing full time baseball that long. The strides he could make in his game could make him a top 5 guy in a loaded system with a big year.

[bah1286]

In addition to the aforementioned "CF is a wasteland", I look at Siani/Allen as votes for floor/ceiling respectively. Some people respect that Siani's floor is bare minimum MLB player in some capacity, which is the name of the game here. I voted for Allen because of ceiling, which if he reaches it is prototypical leadoff hitter who plays CF. Which is incredibly valuable and increasingly rare. And Allen is very young and hasn't been doing full time baseball that long. The strides he could make in his game could make him a top 5 guy in a loaded system with a big year.

Absolutely agree about Allen. I do like him. Voted for Cabrera this time around because his ceiling is probably the highest of almost anyone on the entire list and it just feels like the time to give that vote. I’ll vote for him until he’s on and move to Allen afterwards, although I feel he will already be off the board at that point.

[Kinsm]

I'd absolutely take that bet, mth.

Really? "Absolutely"?

Do you know how many Reds minor league farmhands have hit that figure over the past say...30 years?!

I'd be happy with anyone in our top 10, let alone outside our top 10, hitting that figure in a Reds uni.

[podgejeff_]

Really? "Absolutely"?

Do you know how many Reds minor league farmhands have hit that figure over the past say...30 years?!

I'd be happy with anyone in our top 10, let alone outside our top 10, hitting that figure in a Reds uni.

According to Fangraphs, over the past 30 years: 30 total, 20 from our farm.

Votto, Larkin, Phillips, Sanders, Dunn, Bruce, Suarez, Casey, Hanigan, Frazier, Hamilton, Cozart, Boone, Junior, Kearns, Freel, LaRue.

Harang, Cueto, Rijo, Castillo, Arroyo, Smiley, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, Latos, Mahle, and for our purposes we'll round up with Gray and DeSclafani.

Junior, Phillips, Harang, Rijo, Smiley, Latos, Arroyo, Gray, Desclafani and Suarez being raised on other farms.

[Danny Serafini]

Casey and Castillo spent little time in the Reds system, they were mostly developed elsewhere