Redszone 2023 Top 40 prospects Poll: #16

[podgejeff_]

In another nailbiter, Jay Allen II takes the fifteenth spot, our first official outfielder. Allan Cerda replaces him.

01. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
02. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
03. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
04. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19
05. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA 22
06. Matt McLain SS AA 23
07. Chase Petty RHP A+ 19
08. Spencer Steer INF MLB 24
09. Brandon Williamson LHP AAA 24
10. Connor Phillips RHP AA 21
11. Sal Stewart 3B ROK 18
12. Andrew Abbott LHP AA 23
13. Joe Boyle RHP AA 23
14. Levi Stoudt RHP MLB 24
15. Jay Allen II OF A+ 20

[Kinsm]

I'm only voting in case of ties, but I'd love to hear an argument as to why any pitcher remaining in the system (not yet voted for) is better than Roa at this point. I mean, maybe Richardson if he showed any semblance of health - but he hasn't.

Same for Siani on the offensive side, I'd love to hear the arguments against.

[podgejeff_]

I'm only voting in case of ties, but I'd love to hear an argument as to why any pitcher remaining in the system (not yet voted for) is better than Roa at this point. I mean, maybe Richardson if he showed any semblance of health - but he hasn't.

Same for Siani on the offensive side, I'd love to hear the arguments against.

Pitchers? I think I agree with you, Bonnin might have an argument.

As for Siani, I voted for Hinds because I'm a believer in his power/EV and it doesn't seem like he's even been able to have a season not affected by injury. Whereas with Siani it looks like he's going to be a good defensive bench outfielder with speed. There's value there, but my vote was for a higher ceiling (which I think Hinds might have). But I'd love to hear why that's wrong.

[mth123]

Pitchers? I think I agree with you, Bonnin might have an argument.

As for Siani, I voted for Hinds because I'm a believer in his power/EV and it doesn't seem like he's even been able to have a season not affected by injury. Whereas with Siani it looks like he's going to be a good defensive bench outfielder with speed. There's value there, but my vote was for a higher ceiling (which I think Hinds might have). But I'd love to hear why that's wrong.

I can't strongly agree or disagree with anything at this point. My counterpoint would be that Ryan Lamarre ended up being better and more useful than Juan Francisco, so that's why I have Siani over Hinds.

[Mitri]

I’ll vote Siani now that Allen is off the board.

His floor is elite defense in CF. I’ll be rooting for the bat to be good enough to stash in the 9-spot. Myles Straw is a good comp for his ceiling. I’d take that until someone better comes along.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm only voting in case of ties, but I'd love to hear an argument as to why any pitcher remaining in the system (not yet voted for) is better than Roa at this point. I mean, maybe Richardson if he showed any semblance of health - but he hasn't.

Same for Siani on the offensive side, I'd love to hear the arguments against.

A couple options:

Pitcher
Jose Acuna is a 20-year-old SP prospect who just went through two levels in 2022 and dominated both.

His numbers are remarkable-- there's not a red flag among them.

H/9, at 5.4, is among the best for a SP in the Red system. His K/9 (11.5) and BB/9 (3.0) indicate a guy who challenges hitters and has stuff enough to get them out on his own. A WHiP of 0.938 across three stops indicates he's able to limit baserunners, while his HR/9 (0.4) would seem to indicate an ability to keep the ball on the ground. (His groundball rate doesn't line up with this, however.) That 2.91 ERA across two levels and three teams would seem to be great news. That said, it's just over 60 innings-- and every inning was in Florida's humidity.

Hitter
I realize I'm likely the high man on Carlos Jorge, but he continues to put up really nice numbers-- and he's very, very young for his league. In his age 18 season, Jorge put up a 151 wRC+ while stealing 27 bases (against four CS) in 42 games. Across just under 100 career professional games, he's got more than 50 SBs-- that indicates his speed is just as good as Siani's, if not better. Too, he's a middle of the diamond guy as well-- a former SS who's settled in as a 2B. He only had 8 errors on the season. Typically, young middle infielders really struggle with high error totals early in their career. We could be looking at a plus defender at the keystone position.

And his offensive game profiles much, much better than Siani's.

Jorge, despite his relatively small frame, has power. Real thunder in his bat. A .529 slugging percentage in CPX ball ranked in the top 15 in the league. As an 18-year-old, that augers well for future development. And he didn't sell out for that power. His K rate is at 26% while his BB% is over 16. That, then, worked out to a .400 OBP and a .500 SLG in the same season. As a 2B who might be very good defensively and end up stealing 50-75 bases (at a high rate of success) in a full season?

This year may tell more about Jorge, but what we've seen so far has been enough, for me, to rank him in the top 20. (In my personal list, he's lucky #13 right now.)

The Case Against Siani
Both Jorge and Acuna are a long, long way from the major leagues, and funny things can happen on their way up the ladder. That said, both would seem to be at least a year ahead of Siani's progress and should arrive with more useable tools. Some might argue that Siani's the safer pick-- he's hit all the rungs up the ladder and shown something interesting, he's only going into his age 23 season, he's recently shown much more power-- but I'm not too sure I agree with that.

While we all enjoyed his 2022 season, it's not like he tore the cover off the ball. That 102 wRC+ wasn't exactly Ruthian. He might well end up struggling once again to show the power he's shown once in his career. And if he doesn't have that power, Siani's a fifth OF/ PR/ defensive caddy at best. His hit tool doesn't support a guy with no pop. We seem to be assuming Siani's figured out his power output, but that's not necessarily what happens. Believing he's got 10 - 15 HR in his hip pocket now is a best-case scenario, not necessarily what might happen.

He'll be 23 next year in AAA-- that should tell the tale. If he can be a league average-ish guy in AAA, perhaps he can be a 90 OPS+, defense-first, 50 SB/ 12 CS second-division CF in Cincinnati. (And good God, would that be welcome!) In other words, Siani needs the season (IMO) to show that last year wasn't a one-year bump nearly as much as Jorge and Acuna need it to show they can play in full-season ball.

Even if he does hit with the power shown last season, he's not an All-Star level prospect. Both Jorge and Acuna (and Hinds, Hendrick, Richardson, Almonte, Bonnin, Aguiar, et al.) still have tools enough to dream on-- and far superior production at earlier stages of development. In short, if you're viewing this through the lens of upside, Siani's definitely not the pick. If you're viewing it through "most likely" or safest pick, he might not be either.

[Betterread]

I'm only voting in case of ties, but I'd love to hear an argument as to why any pitcher remaining in the system (not yet voted for) is better than Roa at this point. I mean, maybe Richardson if he showed any semblance of health - but he hasn't.

Same for Siani on the offensive side, I'd love to hear the arguments against.

Roa is a legitimate prospect, but Aguiar and Acuna have good arms and had good years in single A, Bryce Hubbart was a 3rd round pick in 2022, and has a good arm and should be assigned to high A. And Bonnin has the best arm of the remaining pitchers but needs to stay healthy and get some innings for experience and evaluation. I like Bonnin’s stuff the best, so he is first in this group. But Roa’s up there and Hubbart is new so I don’t have a solid evaluation of his yet as a pro.

For hitters, Almonte, Jorge and Balcazar all OPS’ed over 880 in AZL league. And Victor Acosta, acquired from the Padres, was signed for $1.8 million. He didn’t hit much in AZL but he is supposed to have a lot of tools, which if you like Siani and Allen should get your attention. Jorge has the best scouting reports, and best hitting tools of the three so he is ranked the highest of the group.

[podgejeff_]

I can't strongly agree or disagree with anything at this point. My counterpoint would be that Ryan Lamarre ended up being better and more useful than Juan Francisco, so that's why I have Siani over Hinds.

According to bWar Juan Francisco was worth 1.4 WAR. Lamarre was worth -.3.

[HokieRed]

According to bWar Juan Francisco was worth 1.4 WAR. Lamarre was worth -.3.

Substitute Jake Cave for Lamarre and mth's point is good. 2.4 bwar vs Francisco's 1.4

[Kinsm]

Aside from International Players who are 4+ years away at a minimum, Roa is the only pitcher remaining that I see who has even a remote chance of being in a Reds rotation anytime soon. Perhaps Hajjar or Aguiar if I squint really hard.

Bonnin, Hubbart, and Farr are future middle relievers, don't warrant high prospect status for me.

Stats from the DSL and ACL don't warrant top 20 status for me either for that matter, need a full year playing against the best stateside.

[Kc61]

Hendrick won’t turn 22 until mid-season 2023.

I don’t get too hung up on very early stats. He started to emerge at A+ last season.

He has high upside, first round draft choice, he gets my vote.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Aside from International Players who are 4+ years away at a minimum, Roa is the only pitcher remaining that I see who has even a remote chance of being in a Reds rotation anytime soon. Perhaps Hajjar or Aguiar if I squint really hard.

Bonnin, Hubbart, and Farr are future middle relievers, don't warrant high prospect status for me.

Stats from the DSL and ACL don't warrant top 20 status for me either for that matter, need a full year playing against the best stateside.

Based on stuff and production, Bonnin's been the better pitcher. Is it his health (or lack thereof) that makes you believe he's a future middle reliever?

Why are you so sure about Hubbart's role so early in his career? What have you seen that leads you to assume he's a middle reliever as well?

Also, just a note: while four years sounds like an eternity, we should probably recognize that there have been six pitchers already mentioned on this list: Petty, Phillips, Williamson, Boyle, Stoudt, and Abbott. The Reds just graduated three starters and a top-flight relief arm-- four pitchers in total. The year before, they graduated two relievers-- Santillan and Sanmartin. (Three if you count Vlad Gutierrez.) Add Antone from 2020 as a relief ace.

The Reds have been, surprisingly pretty successful in developing pitching over the past three years or so. If you judge by those three seasons, most of these guys are likely to find a spot on the staff. That's a lot of kids to sort out. Better to have them spread out a bit, I'd think.

I've got Stoudt and Williamson for sure in 2023, with Boyle, Abbott, and Phillips (in that order, IMO) up next. "Next" is up for discussion, but I suspect, should all three of those guys continue to put up flashes, it'll be 2024 before they earn a role, be it SP or RP with the parent club. That leaves Petty for a spot in 2025. In 2026, then, with a roster that's perhaps chock full'o young arms, it'd be nice to have Acuna (and Aguiar and Hubbart, maybe) as options.

[mth123]

Hendrick won’t turn 22 until mid-season 2023.

I don’t get too hung up on very early stats. He started to emerge at A+ last season.

He has high upside, first round draft choice, he gets my vote.

I voted Siani because I think he has a major league career based off of speed and defense and he might yet hit, but I'm warming up to Hendrick. He's next on my list. I agree he seemed to show some signs of emerging and he is pretty young for his level. He'll probably be in AA this year and that's within reach of the big leagues IMO.

[klw]

Re Lyon Richardson and adding him to the 40 man roster:
https://theathletic.com/3901505/2022...ions-analysis/

Richardson, a second-round pick in the 2018 draft, missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, the right-hander did participate in instructional league and was hitting 98 and 99 mph with his fastball, Krall said.

“Whether he starts in High A or Double A, he’s got a chance to be a legitimate big-league pitcher, and there was no need to leave him unprotected,” Krall said. “We felt it was better safe than sorry.”

[Kinsm]

Based on stuff and production, Bonnin's been the better pitcher. Is it his health (or lack thereof) that makes you believe he's a future middle reliever?

Injuries.

Bonnin's 24 and never pitched 65 innings in a season. If he ever starts in the bigs, it'll be spot duty. He's not a legit option for one of 150 spots in the bigs that is expected to pitch 120+ innings a year. Even if he were to build up to it, he'd probably be near 30 and long gone from the Reds by the time he were ready for it.