Post Thanksgiving pipedream

[mth123]

My hunch is that the reds will make a pick or two in rule 5 and then sit out the off-season until Late January or February when the other teams have filled their needs and the Reds will be free to pick-up the cheap stuff from the land of misfit toys, but on the off chance they decide to spend $30 or $40 Million to get the team to some level of respectability and hope for lightening in a bottle, here is a modest but I think usable shopping list.

1. Starting Pitcher. This will be the biggest expenditure. Zach Davies is a reasonable back end option who could probably be had for a roughly $12 Million guaranteed. I'd offer 1 year at $10 Million with an option for 2024 at $11 million with a $2 Million buy-out. Not sure how realistic that is, but the D-Backs bought out his 2023 option after a reasonable year as a back-end starter.

2. Second Catcher. I'm still strongly in favor of Curt Casali here. Decent RH bat against LHP and would free Stephenson to DH against LHP with Moose sitting. He has the defense and familiarity with Johnson's pitching development to be a strong fit IMO. I'd give a $4.5 Million guarantee. One year $4 Million, with an option for another year at $4 Million and a $500K buyout.

3. RF I'm leaning to Joey Gallo here. He can handle RF and could be a huge boost to this team's sagging power production. His lefty bat might get a huge boost from GABP. 2 Years, $25 Million $12 Million in 2023 and $13 Million in 2024. He can opt out after 2023, which I think he will demand from any team.

4. Bullpen Seth Lugo is a guy I've liked for a long time. He's probably best in a multi-inning bullpen role, but he could also start if need be (similar to Cessa and Lorenzen). 1 Year, $6 million.

5. Bullpen Lefty Ryan Yarbrough Can provide innings. Another 1 year $6 Million guarantee, $5.5 Million salary, option for 2024 at $6 Million with a $500K buyout.

2023 cost counting option buy-outs $40 Million


Roster

13 position guys.

India 3B or 2B
Fraley/Solak LF
Stephenson C/DH
Votto 1B
Gallo RF
Moose/Casali DH/C
Steer 3B or 2B
Friedl/Senzel CF
Barrero/Newman SS

13 man pitching staff

Rotation
Greene
Lodolo
Ashcraft
Davies
Overton

Bullpen
Diaz (CL)
Antone (RHSU)
Cessa (RH)
Lugo (RH)
Yarbrough (LH)
SanMartin (LH)
Sims (RH)
B. Farmer (RH)


AAA Position Depth (Roster guys only): McLain, De La Cruz, Lopez, Marte (Probably in AA)
AAA Pitching Depth (Roster guys only): Santillan, Williamson, Stoudt, Karcher, Dunn, Legumina, Kuhnel, Richardson (probably in AA)

Others not on 40 man (Positions): Encarnacion-Strand, Hopkins, Free, Vellojin, Yang, Cerda
Others not on 40 man (Pitcherrs): Herget, Lively, Abbott, a cast of 1000s

60 Day IL Vlad

Lost to create 3 needed 40 man spots (possibly back on minor league deals). Matt Reynolds (out of options anyway), Ian Gibaut (out of options anyway), Fernando Cruz (he'll be 33 in March).

Probably a boring off-season ahead, but this is a doable plan IMO and with a couple of comebacks, that team could compete in a weak central and for the watered-down wild card IMO.

[krazzy]

I’m not sure they should spend on relievers, except for AAA depth.
Diaz
Antone
Cessa
Simms
Santillan
SanMartin
Farmer
Gibaut
Dunn and Overton if they ain’t in the rotation.

AAA depth
Kuhnel
Cruz
Karcher
Herget
Byrne
Stockton
Nutof
Garcia
Demurias

[mth123]

I’m not sure they should spend on relievers, except for AAA depth.
Diaz
Antone
Cessa
Simms
Santillan
SanMartin
Farmer
Gibaut
Dunn and Overton if they ain’t in the rotation.

AAA depth
Kuhnel
Cruz
Karcher
Herget
Byrne
Stockton
Nutof
Garcia
Demurias

IMO, pitching is what they need the most. Not really a fan of Sims, Santillan, SanMartin or Gibaut on that staff and if a guy like Farmer has to be anything more than last man on the staff, I think the staff is in trouble. Add that Antone is coming off his second TJ and could be a nothing really quickly and that Santillan and Dunn should probably prove they are back and back to form in AAA for at least a couple of months and I think the need is very evident. I like Diaz, but don't think he's as good as his last season's numbers. I like Cessa in the bullpen (but not starting).

We're lucky if the Starters go 5 innings these days and the pen needs to cover 4 innings every game. Need to limit the weak inks through added quality and more depth to make it easier to switch out guys who aren't getting it done IMO. Those guys shown as minor league depth are just names like every team has. Karcher is the only one who is a little bit interesting IMO.

[757690]

I like the optimism, and most of the player choices.

However, I would prefer using that Gallo money on Bellinger, higher ceiling.

[mth123]

Just realized I left Fairchild off. I guess Solak might be on the bubble with Fairchild in the spot where I show Solak. Personally, I'd use Fairchild in place of Senzel and keep Solak, but the Reds won't do that.

- - - Updated - - -

I like the optimism, and most of the player choices.

However, I would prefer using that Gallo money on Bellinger, higher ceiling.

That money won't get Bellinger IMO. If it would, I'd agree. I'm thinking at least $15 Million for 2023 with more years and a opt out to get Bellinger. Lots of teams are after him. Gallo seems to be less in demand and more likely to play for a sad sack franchise IMO.