MLB Draft Lottery Tuesday December 6

[Kc61]

So, tomorrow is the draft lottery. The results will apparently be announced on MLB Network at 8:30 PM eastern.

The Reds have the fourth best odds of getting the #1 pick, 13.25%. The Nats, Pirates, and A’s all have the best odds, 16.5%. The worst the Reds can do is the #10 pick.

The lottery only decides the order for the 18 non-playoff teams in the first round. In rounds 2-20, normal reverse order rules will apply. Reds appear in line for picks 38 (Competitive Balance round A) and 42 (pick 4 in second round).

Only six spots are actually picked by lottery. After pick six, it reverts to worst W-L pct of non playoff teams, followed then by the playoff teams according to round of elimination. Hence, Reds (fourth worst W-L) can only fall as far as pick 10 (6+4).

[klw]

a/k/a as the most exciting moment of the Reds offseason?

[Bourgeois Zee]

a/k/a as the most exciting moment of the Reds offseason?

For sure.

Unless you count Red owners counting their millions in the company of other fat cats. That's probably a really good time for them...

[Roy Tucker]

Phil Castellini is rubbing his lucky rabbits foot in his pocket.

At least that’s what he claims he’s doing.

[Slyder]

Come on #10. Don't reward these cheap brats.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Come on #10. Don't reward these cheap brats.

I can't get excited about a LOSER bowl. Ownership should be so disgusted and embarrassed by this that they send the decaying body of Dick Wagner as their representative.

[JFLegal]

mathematically, what is the most likely outcome? 4th pick? 5th?

[Tuff Nut]

mathematically, what is the most likely outcome? 4th pick? 5th?

I was told that there would be no math.

[Jaysland Red]

I was told that there would be no math.

There’s no math needed with these Reds, except there is zero probability of them making the postseason next season.

[klw]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-mlb-draft-lottery-odds

The teams with the three worst records in 2022 -- the Nationals, A’s and Pirates -- have the best chance (16.5 percent each) to get the No. 1 overall pick via the lottery, though all 18 non-playoff teams will have the chance to land it. The other teams will have declining percentages in reverse order of their records, down to 0.23 percent for the non-playoff club with the highest winning percentage.

As in previous years, any tie in regular-season record is broken by the record in the previous year, continuing with each subsequent prior year's record until the tie is broken.

Draft lottery odds for No. 1 pick

1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5 pct
2. A’s (60-102), 16.5
3. Pirates (62-100), 16.5
4. Reds (62-100), 13.2
5. Royals (65-97), 10.0
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.5
7. Rangers (68-94), 5.5
8. Rockies (68-94), 3.9
9. Marlins (69-93), 2.7
10. Angels (73-89), 1.8
11. D-backs (74-88), 1.4
12. Cubs (74-88), 1.1
13. Twins (78-84), 0.9
14. Red Sox (78-84), 0.8
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.6
16. Giants (81-81), 0.5
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.4
18. Brewers (86-76), 0.2

Any team in the lottery that doesn't land one of the top six picks will pick in reverse order of standings for picks 7-18. For example, if the Brewers don't get one of the lottery picks, they will pick 18th overall.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Come on #10. Don't reward these cheap brats.

I'm torn, of course.

Pick #10 would result in the "bad luck" narrative and as many extra years as ownership can wring out of being really bad. (Two more years? Likely.)

At least with a top pick, they'll hypothetically spend some money in the next half decade. (Maybe.)

God, I hate ownership.

Like, for real. I wouldn't cross the street to pee on them if they were on fire.

[redsfan9988]

We need to be realistic, here, fellas. The Reds can’t afford to sign a top-5 pick. Hoping for something in the 7-10 range. Nice and signable.

I’m joking, of course… I think.

[Redsfan6272]

sucks this is the ONLY excitement for 2023 season... and this player wont be on the reds for 5 more years. Because why? cant start that arbitration clock to soon no matter how good he is..freaking Reds ownership

[TexasRedsFan]

Seeing the trajectory they were on, they should've just thrown one of those last games against the Bucs to improve the odds. After 99, who cares what the final number is.

[BenchRider]

A little luck never hurts...