Reds Remain In Slow Burn of Their Rebuild

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm not at all in support of the game being completely out of control, in terms of salary inflation like it has been for quite awhile now. You seem to be fully in support of that. No thanks.

Edit:. What the game desperately needs is a salary cap, and a financial model more friendly to the pockets of the average fan. Yes, please.

I cannot believe this has to be written in a baseball forum in 2022, but so be it: Owners don't pass the savings down to the paying customer. They keep whatever they can and charge the customer as much as he'll pay for the pleasure of watching a crap team.

[Kc61]

Reds and all sports teams should never rule out spending on veterans. Nor should they rule out any source of acquiring talent. Limiting rebuild years to adding prospects provides a spending “breather” to ownership and usually little else.

I don’t expect Reds to go out and spend on top tier free agents. But i can’t believe there is no veteran player they can afford who’d be helpful for a few years. (Excluding stop gaps who generally just help tread water.)

[MoneyInTheBank]

Why spend money to just spend money? Its like going to the mall or shopping online because you are bored. The Reds do not need to go out and spend a bunch money and finish last or maybe make the last wild card spot at best. They will be stuck in the continuous 73-83 win total with the fans screaming for more pieces and never compete for a WS. If it was easy to just spend to win a WS, why haven't the Yankees or Angels won a WS lately? A $100m payroll is not much different than a $70m payroll. Lets get Votto and Moose off the books, sign a few short term FA pieces, let the young players develop, and see what happens...JMO

Show me where I said spend money to spend money...

By waiting until Votto and Moose come off the books, you are actually advocating for just that. The Reds could have an ace right now locked in for $20M (Castillo) and sign a middle of the order bat (Xander Bogaerts) for $25M and be right about at last year's opening day payroll.

[Ron Madden]

The Athletics Ken Rosenthal,
On MLB's massive free agent spending
If the owners didn't have the money,
they wouldn't spend it. And boy do they have it,
more than ever before.

https://theathletic.com/3973286/2022...urce=twitterhq

[Kc61]

Show me where I said spend money to spend money...

By waiting until Votto and Moose come off the books, you are actually advocating for just that. The Reds could have an ace right now locked in for $20M (Castillo) and sign a middle of the order bat (Xander Bogaerts) for $25M and be right about at last year's opening day payroll.

That’s how the Reds wound up with Moose, Cast and Shogo. They waited. Then, with annoyed fans and a lack of hitting, Reds had limited FA choices. I think they were reasonable choices, but Reds were at the mercy of the particular FA class.

[TexasRedsFan]

It's easy to condemn signing Moustakas now with 20/20 hindsight, but I still give them *some* slack there. He WAS a great target, coming off 3 very productive seasons with a track record of solid defense and being a good clubhouse guy. The mistake was in the guaranteed years. I don't recall ANY other teams courting him at the time. Seems like the Reds panicked and decided to bid against themselves to just make a splash. I really think they could've had him for 2 years and not tied themselves down so badly. You can never predict how future injuries will derail a contract, but you can't let one bad one scare you off of spending ANY money. There's a happy median between overcommitting frivolously and not putting forth enough to even field a competitive team that would satisfy most fans. I hope the Reds organization will decide to get themselves back towards that median in my lifetime.

[Roy Tucker]

Maybe someone can explain this to me because I don’t quite get it.

The Reds, from all appearances, are going to not fortify their rookie crop with good veterans to build a contending club. They seem to be ok with letting these rookies take their lumps to gain experience at the MLB level. Once this “gained experience” milestone is hit, they are going to floor the accelerator and go for it and sign vets that will get them over the hump.

I don’t get why they don’t spend the bucks now, field a good team, and blend in the rookies when they are close to being ready. Besides the $$$ aspect of it which I hope isn’t the reason. Color me puzzled.

[RedsManRick]

Maybe someone can explain this to me because I don’t quite get it.

The Reds, from all appearances, are going to not fortify their rookie crop with good veterans to build a contending club. They seem to be ok with letting these rookies take their lumps to gain experience at the MLB level. Once this “gained experience” milestone is hit, they are going to floor the accelerator and go for it and sign vets that will get them over the hump.

I don’t get why they don’t spend the bucks now, field a good team, and blend in the rookies when they are close to being ready. Besides the $$$ aspect of it which I hope isn’t the reason. Color me puzzled.

Though we've had some promising signs, this team is about 15-20 wins shy of the playoffs on talent as currently constructed. You can't fix that in free agency. You could throw $60M at the problem in FA and you're still fighting for 3rd in the division most likely. Sure, I can imagine the scenario where everybody stays healthy and all the young guys play at the 80th percentile projection, the team is frisky, and we're all lamenting what could have been. But that's quite unlikely.

I figure that, relative to the baseline of spending they were comfortable with (~100-110), 2020 was a big step out on the financial ledge. They were trying to Cardinals it, rolling an investment into a winner that justified support for the ongoing cost. Instead, COVID (and Mike Moustakas sucking, injuries, etc.) happened. They didn't just fail to win, they "lost" a ton of money. So now, it's not just back to the sustainable* baseline. It's making up for what was lost. The idea is to just take it on the chin for a few years, get Votto and Moustakas off the books, and reset the balance sheet. Meanwhile, invest in the farm and developing young guys so that everything syncs up for a up a re-investment cycle in 2024 or 2025.

If guys like Lodolo, Greene, Stephenson, and India continue to grow and maybe 1 or 2 of the next crop of guys like EDLC start making noise, I could see payroll returning to the 100M range in next year. But they have no interest in throwing good money at a team that isn't anywhere close yet while they're still in the red (again, relative to their comfortable margins).

[MoneyInTheBank]

Though we've had some promising signs, this team is about 15-20 wins shy of the playoffs on talent as currently constructed. You can't fix that in free agency. You could throw $60M at the problem in FA and you're still fighting for 3rd in the division most likely. Sure, I can imagine the scenario where everybody stays healthy and all the young guys play at the 80th percentile projection, the team is frisky, and we're all lamenting what could have been. But that's quite unlikely.

I figure that, relative to the baseline of spending they were comfortable with (~100-110), 2020 was a big step out on the financial ledge. They were trying to Cardinals it, rolling an investment into a winner that justified support for the ongoing cost. Instead, COVID (and Mike Moustakas sucking, injuries, etc.) happened. They didn't just fail to win, they "lost" a ton of money. So now, it's not just back to the sustainable* baseline. It's making up for what was lost. The idea is to just take it on the chin for a few years, get Votto and Moustakas off the books, and reset the balance sheet. Meanwhile, invest in the farm and developing young guys so that everything syncs up for a up a re-investment cycle in 2024 or 2025.

If guys like Lodolo, Greene, Stephenson, and India continue to grow and maybe 1 or 2 of the next crop of guys like EDLC start making noise, I could see payroll returning to the 100M range in next year. But they have no interest in throwing good money at a team that isn't anywhere close yet while they're still in the red (again, relative to their comfortable margins).

No. At this point, spending isn't going to get you to the playoffs because they've already burned it down.

Building a team takes foresight. The MLB OF is bad and there is no imminent help coming from the minors. If there is a foundational OF piece available right now for 5 years at $25M per, do it now. We may have $75M to spend next year but we have no idea if the right pieces will be available. Spend $25M now, $25M next and $25M the year after. Or $25M now, $10M next and $40M the year after.

Maybe that foundational piece isn't there this year but setting arbitrary "spending windows" just seems like a good way to overspend on non-elite free agents

[mth123]

Spending should be about accumulating pieces for the next run at contending. Spending on stopgaps accomplishes none of that. They should be signing guys they think can help over the next few years to take one more thing off the to do list for later. Once they get the inclination to start doing what needs to be done, they'll be so much to do that it will take years and the pieces they think they have in place will begin leaving just adding more things to the to do list. Perennial 4th place.

Don't sign guys with this year in mind and don't sign stopgaps. Both of those are a waste of resources. Sign guys who can provide longer term solutions to some of teh many areas that need improvement.

[Kc61]

Maybe someone can explain this to me because I don’t quite get it.

The Reds, from all appearances, are going to not fortify their rookie crop with good veterans to build a contending club. They seem to be ok with letting these rookies take their lumps to gain experience at the MLB level. Once this “gained experience” milestone is hit, they are going to floor the accelerator and go for it and sign vets that will get them over the hump.

I don’t get why they don’t spend the bucks now, field a good team, and blend in the rookies when they are close to being ready. Besides the $$$ aspect of it which I hope isn’t the reason. Color me puzzled.

Rebuild logic is why spend now? We’re losing anyway. An expensive player next year is a waste of money. Let’s wait until we’re “readier.”

Problem is that you may be letting opportunities go by. When you’re “readier” there may not be a good fit available. And yes, as you say, you lose the years of building with better habits, a better record, and more time to allow the team to come together.

[klw]

Maybe someone can explain this to me because I don’t quite get it.

The Reds, from all appearances, are going to not fortify their rookie crop with good veterans to build a contending club. They seem to be ok with letting these rookies take their lumps to gain experience at the MLB level. Once this “gained experience” milestone is hit, they are going to floor the accelerator and go for it and sign vets that will get them over the hump.

I don’t get why they don’t spend the bucks now, field a good team, and blend in the rookies when they are close to being ready. Besides the $$$ aspect of it which I hope isn’t the reason. Color me puzzled.

Why didn't they invest in a SS and a couple of relievers in the 20-21 offseason when it would have put them over the top as favorites for the divsion? Why did they wait until the deadline to get Givens when the huge bullpen holes constantly blew up in their faces the first half?

[westofyou]

Why didn't they invest in a SS and a couple of relievers in the 20-21 offseason when it would have put them over the top as favorites for the divsion? Why did they wait until the deadline to get Givens when the huge bullpen holes constantly blew up in their faces the first half?

Because the franchise acts as a mirror image of the community it represents, in short, conservative, pragmatic when considering risk (financial) and not flashy

It's a cultural thing to beat ownership wise

[#13]

Two things: 1. When the Reds supposedly did everything they could and the players just blew it, there were some obvious holes in the depth of that team that should have been anticipated and filled. But even short of that, not winning a playoff game is hardly a reason to say that investing more resources in the team - which made it significantly better - is a failed approach. 2. Cutting last year's and this year's payroll helps the future if these cuts are added to future payrolls. Do you seriously think that is the plan? If so, why don't the Reds say that? It could give a better impression than that the current public perception that they are cutting the payroll just to save money and fatten their wallets.

Maybe its just me, but I have never thought that the Reds were just cutting payroll to "fatten their wallets." This is finally a true rebuild, not a reboot, not an attempt to fatten their wallets. Bad contract extensions, bad free agent signings, and missed prospects have all led to this current situation. I know its not often seen, but investing in the minor leagues, international scouting, player development, mlb draft evaluations, etc. are all part of a true rebuild. Hopefully, the Reds stay the course and can compete for the next decade and not just go "all in" for a season or two and be right back where they started.

[LeatherPants]

Maybe its just me, but I have never thought that the Reds were just cutting payroll to "fatten their wallets."

They have literally said that they cut payroll to have a bigger profit. The owner's idiot son said it on TV, and it caused a big scene. Why is it so hard from some of you to actually believe what ownership has said right out there in the open.