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Thread: 2023 Draft Discussion

  1. #136
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    #7 is just too high of a pick to use on Bradfield IMO. He couldn't hit in the wooden bat Cape Cod League in 2022 and has .279 average this year in college. Pro pitchers aren't going to walk him nearly as much as these college pitchers do. As great as his defense is he just has too much Billy Hamilton 2.0 risk for me. Now for a team with a big OF to cover in the mid to late first round he could make sense.
    Did not know about his time on the Cape. You make good points. I may be squinting at this player. Maybe the play, instead, is to try to float Dillon Head down to their pick in the comp round. Very similar profile to Bradford, just 3 years behind in his development.


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  3. #137
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Yeah, the Reds like college hitters who have success on the Cape.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  4. #138
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by krm1580 View Post
    Assuming one of the big 5 doesnít fall I would prefer Meyer of the guys available due to the upside

    As far as the rest of the draft for hitters the profile I want is good athletes with strong bat to ball skills such OF Jack Hurley or SS Cooper Pratt. The game has changed the shift is out and steals are in. I donít want to see the typical Rece Hinds big power corner guy with questionable hit tools unless it is late in the draft

    As far arms - Tampa model live arms with projectability. Guys like Sykora. Grab all the mediocre stuff, solid pitchabiliy types you want in the back half of the draft
    Agree on bat to ball skills. The game has changed. HR's are a little less important while speed, defense, and bat to ball skills are relatively more important.

  5. #139
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    One of the ways teams can save some draft capital is by signing older players. Typically, senior signs will do so for a relative pittance of a bonus, so teams can save their economic powder for harder signs elsewhere. I wouldn't draft all of these guys, but I'd take a gamble on at least a couple of them, promote them aggressively, and see what develops. Here, then, are some senior signs that look interesting, at least statistically:

    - TJ Clarkson, OF/1B/P Utah
    I'd draft him as a hitter (LH) and use his arm as in RF. The Reds like what they say out of high school; they drafted him in the 33rd round in 2019. Lots of power and a solid BA. Big kid with long levers.

    - Drew Cowley, MI Oregon
    He's knocked the stuffing out of the ball his entire collegiate career and plays up the middle. Probably a 2B or 3B as a pro. Added a ton of power this season-- probably indicates a swing change that's unlocked a bit more upside.

    - Tyler Davis, P/DH Sam Houston State
    How's this for odd? For four years, Tyler Davis was a Division I pitcher. He showed decent results, especially early. Then last year, in his 5th season of eligibility, he started DHing and went nuts. .423/ .491/ .621/ 1.112. Now, granted, these are stats in the WAC-- so they're inflated by rarified air and relatively small parks. But the underlying stuff is great too: that 32:31 BB:K ratio looks shiny as can be. He is ancient-- 24-- by collegiate reckoning, but I'd love to see what he had under the hood as a long round gamble.

    - Jackson Gray, OF UK
    Great eye at the plate, good pop, and very good speed, he's also a very good defensive player (and the only player on this list I've seen in person). He's got a hole in his swing currently, but I'm guessing he'll make it work despite that. .500 OBP don't grow on trees, even in college baseball. Could be challenged, as he's played the season at Kentucky.

    - Nolen Hester, OF Texas Tech
    Want a plus hit tool? How about five years of .340/ .480/ .442/ .922 with nearly double the BBs (151) than Ks (86)? Played RF at Wofford, so he might have a decent arm.

    - Jayden Kiernan, C Utah
    5th year senior was 2nd in the Pac 10 in BA and had a 16:16 BB:K ratio. As a catcher, you could certainly do worse. That built-in age gravitas might help recent HS school grad pitchers to remain calm and listen. And he can buy them beer if they do. So win/ win.

    - Nick Lorusso, CIF Maryland
    Monster production (105 RBI in 61 games), great power (.700+ SLG), and a .376 BA. A few too many K's (46 in 303 PAs), but BB rate helps offset that. Plays primarily 3B and 1B. Of all the guys on this list, he's the one who I'd love to see most in the Red system.

    - Peyton Powell, DH Texas
    Almost as many BB and Ks, he found a few extra singles this season and a little more power. Among the Big 12 leaders in BA. Solid production in the Northwoods League in 2022 too.

    - Hayden Travinski, C/LF LSU
    Probably a small sample miracle, but 10 HR in 100 PAs and a .427 BA will absolutely play. As a catcher, he's got upside enough on which to take a gamble.

    Pitchers
    - Diego Barrera, LHSP Loyola Marymount
    Short, slight of build and dominant lefty. He was a decent prospect out of high school but wasn't drafted. Enjoyed a 2.17 ERA with 8.4 K against 1.0 BB. Refuses to beat himself and has a habit of throwing deep into games. That augers well for competitive drive, intelligence and creativity as a pitcher. Likely to do well in the lower leagues too.

    - Jake Bloss, RHSP Georgetown
    Among the Big East's leaders in IP, Ks, wins, WHiP, H/9, and just about every other category. Doesn't walk many (2.8) and doesn't give up many HR. Might get beaten up by better athletes. Then again, Bloss was considered a pretty decent prospect coming out of North Carolina. He threw 91 in HS and tops out at 97 now, so he's got some gas.
    https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-jake-bloss-rhp

    - Owen Coady, LHSP Penn
    Lots of K's, but struggles to control his stuff. Still, a 2.83 lifetime ERA with a 6.3 lifetime H/9 in 143.1 IP speak to his ability to find something to keep hitters from squaring the ball up.

    - Will Maldonado, RP Vandy
    Four years of solid relief work against the best hitters college baseball has to offer. Closer this season too. High K rate, low BB rate with a miniscule 4.5 H/9. He'll likely move fast too. This is exactly the type of pitcher you can lean on in the lower levels.

    - Ben Shields, SP George Mason
    Good peripherals. Lots of K's, especially for a SP. Pitched well in the Cape in 2022. Really, really old (24) for a draftee, so he'd come cheap and could be abused.

    - Nico Zeglin, RHSP Long Beach State
    5th year senior has put up double digit K total throughout his college career, first at Gonzaga then at Long Beach State. 3.6 career BB/9 totals. Can throw lots of innings.

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  7. #140
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    One of the ways teams can save some draft capital is by signing older players. Typically, senior signs will do so for a relative pittance of a bonus, so teams can save their economic powder for harder signs elsewhere. I wouldn't draft all of these guys, but I'd take a gamble on at least a couple of them, promote them aggressively, and see what develops. Here, then, are some senior signs that look interesting, at least statistically:

    - TJ Clarkson, OF/1B/P Utah
    I'd draft him as a hitter (LH) and use his arm as in RF. The Reds like what they say out of high school; they drafted him in the 33rd round in 2019. Lots of power and a solid BA. Big kid with long levers.

    - Drew Cowley, MI Oregon
    He's knocked the stuffing out of the ball his entire collegiate career and plays up the middle. Probably a 2B or 3B as a pro. Added a ton of power this season-- probably indicates a swing change that's unlocked a bit more upside.

    - Tyler Davis, P/DH Sam Houston State
    How's this for odd? For four years, Tyler Davis was a Division I pitcher. He showed decent results, especially early. Then last year, in his 5th season of eligibility, he started DHing and went nuts. .423/ .491/ .621/ 1.112. Now, granted, these are stats in the WAC-- so they're inflated by rarified air and relatively small parks. But the underlying stuff is great too: that 32:31 BB:K ratio looks shiny as can be. He is ancient-- 24-- by collegiate reckoning, but I'd love to see what he had under the hood as a long round gamble.

    - Jackson Gray, OF UK
    Great eye at the plate, good pop, and very good speed, he's also a very good defensive player (and the only player on this list I've seen in person). He's got a hole in his swing currently, but I'm guessing he'll make it work despite that. .500 OBP don't grow on trees, even in college baseball. Could be challenged, as he's played the season at Kentucky.

    - Nolen Hester, OF Texas Tech
    Want a plus hit tool? How about five years of .340/ .480/ .442/ .922 with nearly double the BBs (151) than Ks (86)? Played RF at Wofford, so he might have a decent arm.

    - Jayden Kiernan, C Utah
    5th year senior was 2nd in the Pac 10 in BA and had a 16:16 BB:K ratio. As a catcher, you could certainly do worse. That built-in age gravitas might help recent HS school grad pitchers to remain calm and listen. And he can buy them beer if they do. So win/ win.

    - Nick Lorusso, CIF Maryland
    Monster production (105 RBI in 61 games), great power (.700+ SLG), and a .376 BA. A few too many K's (46 in 303 PAs), but BB rate helps offset that. Plays primarily 3B and 1B. Of all the guys on this list, he's the one who I'd love to see most in the Red system.

    - Peyton Powell, DH Texas
    Almost as many BB and Ks, he found a few extra singles this season and a little more power. Among the Big 12 leaders in BA. Solid production in the Northwoods League in 2022 too.

    - Hayden Travinski, C/LF LSU
    Probably a small sample miracle, but 10 HR in 100 PAs and a .427 BA will absolutely play. As a catcher, he's got upside enough on which to take a gamble.

    Pitchers
    - Diego Barrera, LHSP Loyola Marymount
    Short, slight of build and dominant lefty. He was a decent prospect out of high school but wasn't drafted. Enjoyed a 2.17 ERA with 8.4 K against 1.0 BB. Refuses to beat himself and has a habit of throwing deep into games. That augers well for competitive drive, intelligence and creativity as a pitcher. Likely to do well in the lower leagues too.

    - Jake Bloss, RHSP Georgetown
    Among the Big East's leaders in IP, Ks, wins, WHiP, H/9, and just about every other category. Doesn't walk many (2.8) and doesn't give up many HR. Might get beaten up by better athletes. Then again, Bloss was considered a pretty decent prospect coming out of North Carolina. He threw 91 in HS and tops out at 97 now, so he's got some gas.
    https://www.mlb.com/video/2023-draft-jake-bloss-rhp

    - Owen Coady, LHSP Penn
    Lots of K's, but struggles to control his stuff. Still, a 2.83 lifetime ERA with a 6.3 lifetime H/9 in 143.1 IP speak to his ability to find something to keep hitters from squaring the ball up.

    - Will Maldonado, RP Vandy
    Four years of solid relief work against the best hitters college baseball has to offer. Closer this season too. High K rate, low BB rate with a miniscule 4.5 H/9. He'll likely move fast too. This is exactly the type of pitcher you can lean on in the lower levels.

    - Ben Shields, SP George Mason
    Good peripherals. Lots of K's, especially for a SP. Pitched well in the Cape in 2022. Really, really old (24) for a draftee, so he'd come cheap and could be abused.

    - Nico Zeglin, RHSP Long Beach State
    5th year senior has put up double digit K total throughout his college career, first at Gonzaga then at Long Beach State. 3.6 career BB/9 totals. Can throw lots of innings.
    Lots of work done here. Many thanks.

  8. #141
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    If they miss out on the big 5, Noble Meyer would be my desired pick.
    Go BLUE!!!

  9. #142
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Tennessee is in an elimination game right now and Dollander has pitched them to an 8-4 lead after 8 innings, 105 pitches. Has retired 16 of last 17

  10. #143
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Dollander going out there to start the 9th. Still throwing 96

    - - - Updated - - -

    He walked the leadoff guy. He's done after 111 pitches

  11. #144
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Tennessee is in an elimination game right now and Dollander has pitched them to an 8-4 lead after 8 innings, 105 pitches. Has retired 16 of last 17
    Yeah I switched over after the Reds game and he looked good. Interesting to see Skenes, Lowder, Dollander and Waldrep's teams are all still in the tourney. We could see some big time pitching match ups of first round picks.

  12. #145
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    There's got to be some special talent at Oral Roberts to get them this far.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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  14. #146
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    The draft itself is heavily dependent on accruing talents in the first few picks. If the Reds do not have one of the top 5 fall into their lap then their best option may be to underslot their first pick. The Reds have shown that the are willing to overslot and be spendy in the draft so this isn't a move on the cheap but it could allow them to add a significant raw talent at their third round pick.

    Clearly we do not have close to the same information as the scouts (makeup, metrics, character, signability etc). Last years draft had every pitcher in the top 20 picks go underslot.
    The options at 7 could include Dollander, Lowder, and Meyer. Dollander has regressed some this year. Dollander is probably also the one pitcher would be toughest to underslot. Lowder is a true pitcher but doesn't really have ace stuff. He seems to me to have the ceiling of a guy like Leake. He has a pretty good floor too depending on health of course. There are pitchers the Reds could take at 43 that have the same ceiling but their floor is much lower. Meyer is a right handed high school pitcher with ace stuff. The Reds have drafted or traded for a certain profile of pitcher in the last few years. He fits the mold. Seems like his fastball has late life propelled by a high spin rate and his slider is a true out pitch. He is also a guy that could and should be underslotted at pick 7 even though he could have the best stuff in this draft.

    1st pick (7) Noble Meyer RHP Jesuit HS and save 500,000 to 750,000 dollars.

    At pick 38, there is a kid I am super interested in if he is still on the board. Cooper Pratt. He is listed as a shortstop but its unlikely he sticks there due to athleticism but he can swing the bat well and has an advanced approach. He may be more hit than pop but he doesn't care to use all the field and has faced a lot of the best competition at his level. Seems like a baseball rat too. If he isn't on the board there are a few college bats that could make sense here. Max Anderson and Mac Horvath could be options.

    1s (38) Cooper Pratt 3B/OF Magnolia HS signed at slot


    At 43, there should be several options for a collegiate arm that interest the Reds. Cade Keuhler, RHP, Campbell University, Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas, Joe Whitman, LHP, Kent State, Kiefer Lord, RHP, Washington. These 4 guys seem to fit in the mix of a Cincinnati type of pitching prospect. A plus offspeed offering and a higher spin rate fast ball. I am gonna go with Tanner Witt for this exercise. He had TJ surgery as a sophomore but his stuff is a tick better overall in my opinion.

    2 (43) Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas at slot

    This underslot and overage that can be used up to 5% allows for another highly talented pick. The 74th pick is worth 975,100. Pair that with the 500,000 saved in round 1 and the potential overage of 689,000, that gives the reds 2,164,100 to grab a talent at pick 74. That is the equivalent to the end of comp A money for a signing of a prospect so roughly the 40th pick. They even have the potential to underslot some of the contracts in rounds 4-10. I would try to grab a kid like Zane Adams. Fits the Reds mold and projectable.

    3 (74) Zane Adams, LHP, Porter HS

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  16. #147
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    The latest MLB.com projects them taking Teel who is the only guy I absolutely do not want. I view drafting a catcher high the same way I view drafting a running back high in the NFL. C has trended toward defense first for a while and now that the DH is in the NL it is even more the case. Unless the C is slam dunk the best player in the draft like Rutchman I donít think you take one in the top 10

    Assuming one of the top 5 does not fall, my pick would still be Meyer, but I would also be ok if they grabbed a college guy like Gonzalez at a huge discount and trying to buy some high end high school guys out of their college commitments like a Sykora or a Clemmey

  17. #148
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    They need to take either Lowder or Dollander. It's pretty simple. I think that is just mlb.com is making stuff up
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  19. #149
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by krm1580 View Post
    The latest MLB.com projects them taking Teel who is the only guy I absolutely do not want. I view drafting a catcher high the same way I view drafting a running back high in the NFL. C has trended toward defense first for a while and now that the DH is in the NL it is even more the case. Unless the C is slam dunk the best player in the draft like Rutchman I donít think you take one in the top 10

    Assuming one of the top 5 does not fall, my pick would still be Meyer, but I would also be ok if they grabbed a college guy like Gonzalez at a huge discount and trying to buy some high end high school guys out of their college commitments like a Sykora or a Clemmey
    Teel has a 55 or 60 hit tool-- among the best in the draft. He can also play OF, 2B, or 3B and has above average speed. Keith Law has said he's a Jason Kendall type-- less power than the typical catcher, but with speed and defensive acumen enough to really be an asset-- at least for five or six seasons. (Remember, Kendall was on the HoF path before he got worn down in his late 20s, OPSing 102 - 137 his first five years in the league.) He also has all the intangibles.

    I'm typically not a fan of catchers this early, but he's not the typical catcher.

    I'm fine with Teel, as he looks like one of the better bats in the draft regardless of position. (They're not reaching for a guy who might be a good power guy, for example, as they did with Nelson.) I also think he's a pretty fast riser-- I'd sign him quickly, stick him in Dayton and pray he hits well enough to move to Chattanooga next season.

    That said, if the Reds choose Dollander or Lowder, that's also defensible. (They might also go for Florida's Hurston Waldrep, who's been nearly unhittable in the CWS so far.) I'd also be fine if they went with a younger prospect, banking on upside.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 06-16-2023 at 12:21 PM.

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  21. #150
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    Re: 2023 Draft Discussion

    CBS Sports has a mock that has Reds taking Lowder at 7 and A's taking Teel at 6.

    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...llege-players/


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