2023 Draft Discussion

[lollipopcurve]

This kid Brayden Taylor at TCU is growing on me. Pure LH bat who has played all over the infield. Sounds grounded, confident, a kid who really loves the game. You can never have too many quality LH bats, and he may be the best one in the draft.

[Benihana]

I would be very pleased with any of

Chase Dollander
Paul Skenes
Wyatt Langford
Max Clark
Walker Jenkins

with Jenkins probably being my least favorite of that list

[RedTeamGo!]

Agreed, if only his first name was Leeroy

[JCM11]

Jenkins seems to have a Jay Bruce type profile. Big lefty bat with a strong arm who has a chance to be a middle of the order hitter. He appears to be a good athlete as well and likely ends up in RF rather than CF. You could do worse my only negative is he's a high schooler and I want the Reds to get better asap.

[WrongVerb]

Keith Law’s MLB Draft 2023 Rankings: Early list is loaded with college players

It’s an incredible draft class, the best probably since 2011, loaded with college position players and a nice batch of college arms, along with three high school position players who would have been in the mix to go first overall in 2022 (and one of them could still do that this year). This ranking is very early, so it’s going to change a lot before we get to the draft itself. I’m writing this two weeks into the college season, with most high school players barely underway if at all. We haven’t seen colleges start their conference schedules or seen how any pitchers hold their stuff through the season, especially guys who showed up with some extra velo. I’ll revise this a few times over the course of the spring, and I expect to see a lot of movement as the year progresses.

[JCM11]

For a point of reference the first round of the 2011 draft saw Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Anthony Rendon, Fransico Lindor, Javy Baez, George Springer, Brandon Nimo, and Jose Fernandez get picked in the top 15.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Hurston Waldrep and Chase Dollander have largely struggled so far this season. About halfway through the season, it's apparent that Dollander's stuff has backed up a bit-- he's struggling to adjust. The same can largely be said for Hurston Waldrep. I'm guessing it'll cost Dollander any chance at

Not sure either makes the top five at this point in the season, though Dollander's previous stuff was so, so dominating that teams might overlook his present struggles a bit.

Rhett Lowder, otoh, has decided he won't give up any hard contact. He's yet to give up a HR this year and has cut his BBs while boosting his K percentage. He's got a great change, an okay fastball to he can get up to 97, and a decent (and developing) slider. Not much projection left, but he should be a relatively fast mover and has a high floor. He'd be a prescient pick.

Jacob Wilson is hitting everything. He's in the NCAA Div. I top 10 in BA, but he's not showing much HR power. Still, he looks like he's going to be able to stick in the middle infield, run a lot, and hit .300 for a decade. That has some real value. Jacob Gonalez has come out pretty solid as well. He's showing more of a hit tool this season, though less power. Enrique Bradfield has shown much better patience at the plate-- he's only striking out half of the time he walks this year. His BA isn't as good, and his power has taken a slight dip.

Dylan Crews has ridiculous numbers. Pinball numbers. Cheat code numbers. He's decided to go full Bonds-- hit everything hard and not K much at all. Currently, he's in the discussion for greatest season in college baseball history. So, y'know, he's not bad. Wyatt Langford was hitting like he wanted to take Crews' spot (at least in a normal season) as the top pick in the draft, but then got hurt and had to have surgery. (Don't watch that video. It's really uncomfortable.) Neither will slide to Cincinnati. I'm guessing they'll go 1-2. Paul Skenes might get into that discussion as well-- he's currently probably the best SP in the NCAA and has stuff for days and days. Three plus pitches currently? Yes, please.

Max Clark, Walker Jenkins, and, to a lesser extent, Arjun Nimmala continue to top the HS class. Not much more information than that-- at least for me.
Right now, I'm guessing:

1. Dylan Crews
Pittsburgh's got a star on its hands. He and O'Neil Cruz might make them relavent. In a few years, at least.

2. Paul Skenes
Washington's primarily focused on pitchers, and Skenes has been the best in college this season. They can't go wrong with the choice between he and Langford.

3. Wyatt Langford
Togers need thump. He has it. Lots of it. And a solid (and improving) hit tool.

4. Max Clark
First prep bat is Clark's. He's a true CF with plus offense. Pretty sure Texas will be overjoyed with that.

5. Chase Dollander
I'm guessing the Twins take the gamble on Dollander. He's an ultra high upside pick.

6. Walker Jenkins
Speaking of upside, Oakland will go with the big-time power and developing hit tool of Jenkins.

7. Rhett Lowder
In a toss-up amongst the next four guys, the Reds go with the safest play here-- Lowder's a modern-day equivalent of Mike Leake, IMO-- complete with the idea that he might be able to get by as a league average pitcher from the get-go. He's got some upside, but he's basically already-baked.

8. Jacob Wilson
Middle infielders who can hit .300 are pretty rare. Wilson can team up with Bobby Witt to form a dynamic middle infield for the Royals. Like this guy.

9. Jacob Gonzalez
Gonzalez has got some really good bat-to-ball skills, but the lack of athleticism and power drop him to #9. He's perfect for the Rockies at that spot-- he'll hit 15-20 HR almost by accident and maybe lead the league in BA.

10. Arjum Nimmala
Among the youngest players in the draft, he's likely going to stick at SS and has precocious pop. As a Florida native, he's also a bit of a hometown guy.

[JCM11]

I would have to at least consider Skenes if I had the #1 pick. Most people think Crews is the slam dunk #1, but Skenes looks like a legit #1 to me. I got no problem with the Reds taking Lowder, but I wouldn't mind if any of those 3-6 guys dropped to #7. Lowder is a ground ball machine so he should be a good fit for GABP.

The Reds also have picks 38 and 43 and this seems like a good draft to have 3 picks in the top 43.

[Benihana]

I would rather roll the dice on Dollander or Skenes than take Mike Leake 2.0, but that’s just me.

If neither of those two fall I’d be rooting hard for Max Clark to somehow fall to 7, but I concede that’s probably unrealistic.

If none of those three are there at 7, Walker Jenkins would be my pick right now.

[RED VAN HOT]

Clark is also my early favorite. Rhett Lowder looks to have the potential to be a fast riser ala Mike Leake. If the Reds feel their pitching pipeline needs to be bolstered, he might be considered as a near term fix.

I haven't changed my preferences.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I would rather roll the dice on Dollander or Skenes than take Mike Leake 2.0, but that’s just me.

If neither of those two fall I’d be rooting hard for Max Clark to somehow fall to 7, but I concede that’s probably unrealistic.

If none of those three are there at 7, Walker Jenkins would be my pick right now.

I believe I've said this before: All four of those guys profile to get drafted before the Reds pick.

[JCM11]

Baseball drafts are weird and hard to predict. I could definitely see Dollander, Clark, or Jenkins being there at #7. All we need is one or two teams in front of us to do something unpredictable.

[RedTeamGo!]

It is hard to say, especially at this point. There was no way Collier was going to be available at the Reds pick last year. With that said, sucks to have the 7th pick this year. There are absolute dawgs in the top 5, led by a potential superstar in Dylan Crews. Sigh.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Baseball drafts are weird and hard to predict. I could definitely see Dollander, Clark, or Jenkins being there at #7. All we need is one or two teams in front of us to do something unpredictable.

It happens, but not often. Especially not in the draft with a pretty clear top six (Dollander and Skenes as pitchers, Crews and Langford as college OF, and Clark and Jenkins as HS OF.)

If you're pining for one of the above prospects, prepare yourself for disappointment.

[WrongVerb]

This is how the selections in the 2019 draft are faring up to the Reds pick of Lodolo.

Rnd	OvPck	Tm	Name	Pos	WAR
1	1	Orioles	Adley Rutschman (minors)	C	5.9
1	2	Royals	Bobby Witt (minors)	SS	0.6
1	3	White Sox	Andrew Vaughn (minors)	1B	0.3
1	4	Marlins	JJ Bleday (minors)	OF	-0.5
1	5	Tigers	Riley Greene (minors)	OF	1.6
1	6	Padres	CJ Abrams (minors)	SS	0.1
1	7	Reds	Nick Lodolo (minors)	P	3.5