Reds sign Curt Casali to 1y deal, DFA Moustakas

[InsaneinthBrame]

I generally agree but the key will be if his bat ends up as a long term fit at 1B/DH. I hope so.

Stephenson is gone in a couple of years he needs to play catcher as much as possible to get a great return when he is traded after next year. Ride him hard it's his next teams problem that is the reality of Reds baseball today

[mth123]

Stephenson is gone in a couple of years he needs to play catcher as much as possible to get a great return when he is traded after next year. Ride him hard it's his next teams problem that is the reality of Reds baseball today

Last year, Stephenson only had 183 PAs. He won't bring anything back if that is what results from "riding him hard." The most important thing for his value is for him to be in the line-up 150 times however they need to manage it.

[Kc61]

Last year, Stephenson only had 183 PAs. He won't bring anything back if that is what results from "riding him hard." The most important thing for his value is for him to be in the line-up 150 times however they need to manage it.

I agree. In terms of trade value, Stephenson as a durable starting catcher is a tough sell.

But Stephenson as a full season good hitter who catches is a much stronger sell. The new team could then decide how much catching time he should get.

If the Reds were to trade him, which is speculative.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'm not saying either of you are but we should also be careful not to overreact to one injury plagued season. For example, we are not declaring India unable to run the bases after repeated hamstring issues last season.

[missionhockey21]

I'm not saying either of you are but we should also be careful not to overreact to one injury plagued season. For example, we are not declaring India unable to run the bases after repeated hamstring issues last season.

I hope the Reds have insurance plans they believe in, which they seem to.

I hope they treat Stephenson with his future & health in mind, knowing he has value just getting into the batter's box alone.

I hope they don't over-react to some bad breaks but I also hope they don't ignore them completely.

No matter what, I hope they are smart with Stephenson. For his sake and our's. We don't have a lot of surefire bets at the moment, best to not blow them or waste them by being too cautious or too risk-adverse.

[Kc61]

I'm not saying either of you are but we should also be careful not to overreact to one injury plagued season. For example, we are not declaring India unable to run the bases after repeated hamstring issues last season.

The reaction that counts is the Reds. Have to presume they know the facts better than we do.

It appears they want to cut down on Stephenson’s catching to preserve his health. That could be a mirage - maybe they’ll drop Maile, keep one backup, and catch Tyler 130 games.

We don’t know, just surmising the situation from the Reds’ own actions this off-season.

[MoneyInTheBank]

The reaction that counts is the Reds. Have to presume they know the facts better than we do.

It appears they want to cut down on Stephenson’s catching to preserve his health. That could be a mirage - maybe they’ll drop Maile, keep one backup, and catch Tyler 130 games.

We don’t know, just surmising the situation from the Reds’ own actions this off-season.

Do I believe they are reducing Stephenson's workload behind the plate? 100%. Do I think catching 50-70 games impacts his value to both the Reds and around the league vs. catching 100-110 games? 100%. Is there a risk factor there? 100%.

Of course the Reds are going to do what the Reds are going to do. If I didn't have my own opinions, I'd disable my account and congregate at the church of Phil (nah, I couldn't go that far)

[Kc61]

Do I believe they are reducing Stephenson's workload behind the plate? 100%. Do I think catching 50-70 games impacts his value to both the Reds and around the league vs. catching 100-110 games? 100%. Is there a risk factor there? 100%.

Of course the Reds are going to do what the Reds are going to do. If I didn't have my own opinions, I'd disable my account and congregate at the church of Phil (nah, I couldn't go that far)

I don’t disagree with any of this, but it’s not like Stephenson becomes a valueless scrub. If he catches 50-70 games (if that’s the plan) and hits .800 OPS for 500 PAs, he’s still a valuable player.

It’s not all or nothing, the cautious approach still provides a heck of a good player, with substantial trade value.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I don’t disagree with any of this, but it’s not like Stephenson becomes a valueless scrub. If he catches 50-70 games (if that’s the plan) and hits .800 OPS for 500 PAs, he’s still a valuable player.

It’s not all or nothing, the cautious approach still provides a heck of a good player, with substantial trade value.

Of course he doesn't become valueless, but the decision doesn't happen in a vacuum either. For Stephenson to DH or play 1B, someone else doesn't get to play. The Reds are devoid of enough talent that it probably won't matter in 2023 but the difference between an average 1B bat and an average C bat is big. Pushing an average 1B to the bench in favor of an average C, is a downgrade. If the Reds are going to continue operating as budget limited, they need every one of those edges, IMO

[LeatherPants]

Steamer and Fangraphs aren’t nearly as bullish on Stephenson as everyone wants to be and are predicting a wRC+ 102 for him.

Everyone hoping he matches what he did in 50 games last year needs to take a look at his BAbip (+.400) and consider if that’s sustainable.

[Kc61]

Of course he doesn't become valueless, but the decision doesn't happen in a vacuum either. For Stephenson to DH or play 1B, someone else doesn't get to play. The Reds are devoid of enough talent that it probably won't matter in 2023 but the difference between an average 1B bat and an average C bat is big. Pushing an average 1B to the bench in favor of an average C, is a downgrade. If the Reds are going to continue operating as budget limited, they need every one of those edges, IMO

You’re positing a future Reds team with better hitting players at first base and DH such that Stephenson only adds at catcher.

If and when that day comes, Reds may have a decision to make about trading Stephenson or how to use him.

But even with that hypothesis they are making the right decision in 2023. Preserving his health, getting him more PAs, while letting him catch part time is the right call given the injury history and the risks of a full season of catching. He’s still a valuable player, and hopefully will settle in as an every-day contributor in the middle of the batting order.

[MoneyInTheBank]

You’re positing a future Reds team with better hitting players at first base and DH such that Stephenson only adds at catcher.

If and when that day comes, Reds may have a decision to make about trading Stephenson or how to use him.

But even with that hypothesis they are making the right decision in 2023. Preserving his health, getting him more PAs, while letting him catch part time is the right call given the injury history and the risks of a full season of catching. He’s still a valuable player, and hopefully will settle in as an every-day contributor in the middle of the batting order.

If your whole argument is "nothing matters because this team sucks" then I agree there's no real counter argument. I sure as heck hope there is a Reds team in our future that has a 1B and DH hitting better than .582 OPS (Luke Maile's career OPS) or even .707 OPS (Curt Casali's career OPS). And your 2nd paragraph is the question I've been asking all along. Is the time to trade him before he's transitioned away from catcher? Maybe that answer is "no" because every team in the league feels he's a 1B/DH who moonlights at C.

We don't know exactly what they are doing, so I'm reserving judgement about whether they have made the right move. What I think the right # is about 100+ games, assuming full health.

[mth123]

If your whole argument is "nothing matters because this team sucks" then I agree there's no real counter argument. I sure as heck hope there is a Reds team in our future that has a 1B and DH hitting better than .582 OPS (Luke Maile's career OPS) or even .707 OPS (Curt Casali's career OPS). And your 2nd paragraph is the question I've been asking all along. Is the time to trade him before he's transitioned away from catcher? Maybe that answer is "no" because every team in the league feels he's a 1B/DH who moonlights at C.

We don't know exactly what they are doing, so I'm reserving judgement about whether they have made the right move. What I think the right # is about 100+ games, assuming full health.

He's never caught 50% of his team's games in a big-league season and has never really established himself as an everyday big-league bat at any position. Any trade of Stephenson will bring a light return until he can establish that he can handle a full-time player's workload, whether that is at Catcher, 1b, DH or wherever. First and foremost is to keep him in the line-up. Ideally, he could catch 110 games and DH 40 more, but with his history, I think catching 110 times means he sits the other days. I'd rather have his bat in there 150 times as opposed to him Catching more often even if that means he Catches 50 times and is DH 100 others.

[MoneyInTheBank]

He's never caught 50% of his team's games in a big-league season and has never really established himself as an everyday big-league bat at any position. Any trade of Stephenson will bring a light return until he can establish that he can handle a full-time player's workload, whether that is at Catcher, 1b, DH or wherever. First and foremost is to keep him in the line-up. Ideally, he could catch 110 games and DH 40 more, but with his history, I think catching 110 times means he sits the other days. I'd rather have his bat in there 150 times as opposed to him Catching more often even if that means he Catches 50 times and is DH 100 others.

Definitively declaring his trade value as light is speculation, at best.

Stephenson was very healthy catching 78 games and playing 132 overall (some of those were PH appearances) in 2021 and got hurt 4 times in 45 games behind the plate in 2022. What is the magic number to stay healthy? We have no earthly idea. Was he lucky in 2021? Unlucky in 2022? Again, no idea.

He got his head spiked into the ground by some ding dong and got clipped by a couple of foul tips in just the right spots. He has made equipment changes and wants to catch. I'm giving him the opportunity to do that. I'm not blind to the fact that there is a risk involved but putting him in bubble wrap (I consider him catching <60 games bubblewrap) isn't the right answer either, IMO.

If the plan is to lighten his load in a 2023 season (since we are punting it anyway) by having him catch just enough to keep him sharp and re-evaluate after? I can get on board with that. Or if it's to get him back up to that 2021 level next year and ramp him up a little more in 2024? Again, I can get on board. I'm just giving it more than an injury plagued season before I pull the plug permanently

[Wayne Krivsky]

Steamer and Fangraphs aren’t nearly as bullish on Stephenson as everyone wants to be and are predicting a wRC+ 102 for him.

Everyone hoping he matches what he did in 50 games last year needs to take a look at his BAbip (+.400) and consider if that’s sustainable.

Good point, but I'm not sure most are counting on him being as good as he was in a smaller sample size anyways. His batting average could drop 40 points and still be in the .280 range, which I think is what he needs to aim for, A .280/.340/.460 type of slash line.

I think the projections on Stephenson by Fangraphs/Steamer/ZiPS are a little harsh as they have him in the .260/.330/.410 range. Still OK if he can be an average defensive catcher, but Stephenson also has roughly 600 MLB plate appearances now. His worst slat line at the end of a year was .286/.366/.431 in 2021 which wasn't exactly a quick cup of coffee type of year for him.

While that .400BABip is unsustainable I'm not sure why we would expect a 26 year old in his 3rd year to drop his career OPS nearly 100 points like many of the projection sites are anticipating. I don't expect him to be a Mike Piazza type of offensive catcher, but even with some regression he's still an .800 OPS type of player which is probably where expectations should be.