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Thread: Prospect Prognostication: bWAR Career Lineup

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Prospect Prognostication: bWAR Career Lineup

    Looking into your crystal ball, which Red prospects will earn the most bWAR at each position by the time their careers are over? Assume, if you believe players are going to split their WAR over two or more positions, whichever position you want. Here's your chance to look smart-- in 15 - 20 years.


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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: bWAR Career Lineup

    Mine:

    C Daniel Vellojin
    Best of a poor lot. He's young (22) and finished the season in AA. Not sure if he'll ever hit for much BA, but his combination of a supposed good glove/ arm, patience, and some pop should keep him on a major league roster for years.

    1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    He'll be tried at 3B, I think, but will eventually move over to 1B as Votto retires. Best power in the system, he'll fit nicely within the lineup as a true clean up hitter. Really like his .316 AA BA. That gives me hope for a big-time contributor. For the record, ZiPS agrees-- they peg him as a 105 bat this season, without any AAA seasoning.

    2B Carlos Jorge
    My first curveball pick. I like Jorge as a true 2B with defensive chops, wheels, decent pop, and a decent BA. McLain will likely move around a bit before him, as India will be in his way. As India gets expensive, Jorge should be ready. Like him as a table-setter for the next good iteration of the Reds.

    SS Elly De La Cruz
    Easy pick here, but perhaps controversial. Others are going to pick a "true" SS, not realizing De La Cruz is just that defensively. At least a couple Red scouts/ personnel have said he's special with the glove. Add to that his speed and power, and I suspect he can get by with a BA hovering around .250 and an OBP just north of .300. That's likely not what most have envisioned, but it's a good baseline expectation, IMO, with room to grow.

    3B Cam Collier
    IMO, the safest pick of all. He's super young and might well start 2022 in low A Daytona. CES is in AAA, but other than that, there's really no one in front of him. (This assumes Marte's AFL move to third was temporary.) As a 1st round pick, he'll be given plenty of leash. I suspect he'll carve out a solid career.

    CF Ariel Almonte
    I almost went with Siani, then debated on Jay Allen's upside, but I finally settled on Almonte. I do wonder if Allen will be given a real shot, as Siani will get first crack at CF and is likely to stick for at least a year. Siani will undoubtedly field well and run well, so he'll be a coach's favorite. I'm guessing Allen will be a fourth OF for at least a couple of seasons early in his career. That should mean Almonte will be ready about the time the Reds realize Siani struggles with both power and hit tools.

    RF Carlos Sanchez
    Yeah, there's not a good answer here. Noelvi Marte was my first pick, but he's never picked up an OF glove, let alone been moved to RF. In fact, he's been moved (kind of) to 3B instead. And there's the fact that Rece Hinds is the same age and should be given every opportunity to play. That means he won't move there in the minor leagues. Which then should mean he won't move there at all. I don't think Hinds will amount to much more than Glenn Braggs-- a supreme athlete who was a solid fourth OF for years. Allan Cerda and Austin Hendrick strike out too much to replace Hinds-- for striking out too much. That leaves Yerlin Confidan, who isn't very good defensively and Sanchez, who's in the DSL. I'll go with the kid who's got a .500 OBP at 17. This is probably my biggest wildcard.

    LF Yerlin Confidan
    Lots of fans forget, but Confidan dominated in the AZL in 2021. He was hurt last season. I'm guessing he finds that AZL magic, as a solid hitter. I like his BA and power. I also like his big arm. He's not George Foster, but a guy can dream.

    SP Andrew Abbott
    I'm tempted by Chase Petty, but suspect his delivery will be his undoing. Big-time fastball, short career. Jose Acuna is another, but he's so far away that I just couldn't get a good handle on himm. Abbott, otoh, has a clean delivery, athleticism to burn, and is relatively close to the majors, having just finished half a season in AA in his first full professional season. I like that he's a college kid too. And the fact that he's left-handed. I suspect he'll be given every opportunity to stick in a rotation even if he's "just" a #4 starter.

    RP Christian Roa
    Another big swing here. I thought about Connor Phillips. Joe Boyle too, though big armed, high K, high BB guys tend to flame out rather young. (I do think Boyle will have the highest relief WAR/ season, fwiw.) Williamson is already too old, as is Stoudt.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 12-27-2022 at 10:41 PM.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: bWAR Career Lineup

    C- Logan Tanner (Spin the wheel)
    1B - Encarnacion-Strand
    2B - Matt McLain
    SS - Elly De La Cruz
    3B - Noelvi Marte (Most overall)
    LF - Spencer Steer
    CF - Mike Siani
    RF - Austin Hendrick

    C and OF are a dumpster fire. Need guys from outside the organization in those spots.

    SP - Chase Petty
    RP - Joe Boyle
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Prospect Prognostication: bWAR Career Lineup

    Catcher- Hayden Jones. Since there isn’t really anyone running away with it (I do like Vellojin) I’m going to pick a wildcard.
    1B- Christian Encarnacion Strand. I considered putting Sal Stewart here and CES at 3B but needed a place for Collier
    2B- Carlos Jorge. One of my favorite prospects.
    SS- Elly De La Cruz. I hope Barrero claims this spot and moves DLC to 3B but wouldn’t bet on it.
    3B- Cam Collier, looks like a future star
    RF- Noelvi Marte, I’ve been wanting him in RF since he was drafted.
    CF- this one is tough. I like Siani but don’t know if he will hit enough to put up much WAR, Jay Allan hasn’t proven anything. I will guess one of the SSs get moved to CF. Maybe Acosta or Balcazar. I’ll go Balcazar.
    LF. Comes down to Yerlin Confidan and Arial Almonte for me. I’ll go Almonte.
    SP- Chase Petty, he’s my favorite pitching prospect
    RR- I’ll go with Joe Boyle. He could either not ever make the majors or he could be a star.


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