Fangraphs' Top Prospect List Predictions

[Bourgeois Zee]

Eric Longenhagen's Reds' list comes out sometime in the next couple of weeks. Typically, he finds a way to not only anger Cincinnati fans by dismissing at least one prospect most national pundits like, he also tends to show a largely complete lack of understanding about the prospects as a whole. Last year, for example, his Red list had Allan Cerda ranked 5th, Daniel Vellojin 8th, and Riley O'Brien 29th. He also picked Graham Ashcraft as the Reds' 18th best prospect, insisting that he wouldn't see the majors until 2023.

Oops.

Other misses included TJ Friedl, Joe Boyle, and Alexis Diaz.

Who is Longenhagen going to be too high on this season?

Who is he likely going to discount?

What is his likely top 10?

[Bourgeois Zee]

Mine:

Longenhagen will be too high on Juztin Boyd. He'll be in his top 20, perhaps his top 15. Longenhagen will talk of his sweet swing adjustment while in college and his excellent defense. Ricky Karcher is another he'll have relatively highly ranked.

He'll be too low, as compared to industry standards, on Noelvi Marte, dropping him from a typically top 25-30 prospect right around 100 spots. He'll disregard Petty as a top guy as well, believing him to be a reliever.

His top 10:

1. Elly de la Cruz 50+ FV
2. Cam Collier 45+ FV
3. Noelvi Marte 45+ FV
4. Edwin Arroyo 45 FV
5. Spencer Steer 45 FV
6. Matt McLain 40+ FV
7. Sal Stewart 40+ FV
8. Brandon Williamson 40+ FV
9. Victor Acosta 40+ FV
10. Chase Petty 40+ FV

[Bourgeois Zee]

Longenhagen's list:

1 Elly De La Cruz 60
2 Spencer Steer 50
3 Edwin Arroyo 50
4 Cam Collier 50
5 Noelvi Marte 50
6 Chase Petty 45+
7 Matt McLain 45
8 Connor Phillips 45
9 Brandon Williamson 45
10 Michael Siani 45

Get you a girl you like as much as Longenhagen likes Steer. OTOH, he is decidedly off the Noelvi Marte hype train, arguing, among other odd things, that Marte's slow (untrue) now. (His speed scouting scores are literally batpoop crazy-- as per usual, he tends to make things up some things out of whole cloth. Speed is one of those.) Lots of stuff at the link. Lots of it is really interesting. Some of it is... odd. Rece Hinds doesn't make his top 46. Nor does Ariel Almonte. Nor does (gulp) Jose Acuna.

[Kc61]

You’ll note that Fangraphs sees Arroyo potentially moving off shortstop, list him as a second baseman. OTOH, they view McLain as a slam dunk shortstop.

I saw McLain play some short on AFL videos. He looked like a shortstop to me. Obviously there are other factors for these players, just mentioning the defensive side, which I found interesting and different from conventional wisdom.

This Fangraphs report reflects quite a good farm system. Let’s hope some guys emerge beyond the few listed at the top.

[Mitri]

That report on Marte is really odd. Guess I’ll be rooting for Marte to make him look dumb in a year.

Nice to see Steer, Arroyo and Collier get an FV boost. McLain hasn’t slipped either.

Almost forgot Andrew Moore existed until this.

[HokieRed]

He has the pitchers right in my view. Nice to see somebody put Phillips where he belongs.

[JCM11]

If they think there's a decent chance of Arroyo being moved off SS then he's not the #3 prospect in our system. He'd be a fringe top 10 guy if that were the case. Steer didn't pass the eye test for me at the MLB level. He seems like a decent all around player that will likely be a first guy off the bench unless he hits for power. This time next year after Elly graduates Collier will be our #1 prospect.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If they think there's a decent chance of Arroyo being moved off SS then he's not the #3 prospect in our system. He'd be a fringe top 10 guy if that were the case. Steer didn't pass the eye test for me at the MLB level. He seems like a decent all around player that will likely be a first guy off the bench unless he hits for power. This time next year after Elly graduates Collier will be our #1 prospect.

This.

Oddly, most other publications have pegged Arroyo's defense as well above average for a SS. Fangraphs is, like Baseball Prospectus before it went went the way of the dodo, known for making bold claims that go against industry and scout scuttlebut. This is, I suspect, one of those examples. Best not to read too much into any of this.

[mth123]

Steer seems like an IF version of Chris Heisey. Not enough bat for the corners and defense a little short for the middle. I liked Heisey as a bench player and expect the same from Steer. He should play every day this year, at least until other guys arrive and pass him by, to find out about him.

[Bourgeois Zee]

He has the pitchers right in my view. Nice to see somebody put Phillips where he belongs.

I question his assumption on who ends up a relief arm and who ends up starting.

He got it way, way wrong last year and the year before. Not sure I'm giving him any leeway until he hits on a better average.

Longenhagen doesn't seem to know the Reds' prospects very well. He makes mistakes year after year-- simple mistakes about handedness or speed or power or pitches or tools-- that are easily disproven. He doesn't seem overly concerned with correcting them either. I consider him a decent tool for some analytical numbers I wasn't aware of and some industry rumor. Beyond that, any true analysis is, IMO, to be taken with a massive grain of salt.

[HokieRed]

I question his assumption on who ends up a relief arm and who ends up starting.

He got it way, way wrong last year and the year before. Not sure I'm giving him any leeway until he hits on a better average.

Longenhagen doesn't seem to know the Reds' prospects very well. He makes mistakes year after year-- simple mistakes about handedness or speed or power or pitches or tools-- that are easily disproven. He doesn't seem overly concerned with correcting them either. I consider him a decent tool for some analytical numbers I wasn't aware of and some industry rumor. Beyond that, any true analysis is, IMO, to be taken with a massive grain of salt.

I was just reacting to the top 10, which is all I've seen. I like the rank order of Petty, Phillips, Williamson. FWIW, I'm high on all three and see all three as starting prospects.

[RED VAN HOT]

Rece Hinds isn't even in his top 46.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I was just reacting to the top 10, which is all I've seen. I like the rank order of Petty, Phillips, Williamson. FWIW, I'm high on all three and see all three as starting prospects.

Got it. That makes lots of sense, then.

[Mitri]

Steer didn't pass the eye test for me at the MLB level. He seems like a decent all around player that will likely be a first guy off the bench unless he hits for power.

Steer had 60 extra base hits between AA-MLB last season. He has plenty of power and spending summers in the NL Central won’t hurt. I don’t see him as a bench player anytime soon.

[JCM11]

Steer had 60 extra base hits between AA-MLB last season. He has plenty of power and spending summers in the NL Central won’t hurt. I don’t see him as a bench player anytime soon.

Notice I said at the MLB level where his slg % was .326 in 108 PA. I didn't see much pop in his bat or explosiveness as an athlete from him. His average exit velo and hard hit % were well below MLB averages. Maybe he settles in next year and shows some of that power at the big boy league, but if he doesn't he's a not an everyday third baseman.

Steer had major split differences in the minors with a .765 OPS vs RHP and a .998 OPS vs LHP. He got ate up by RHP in his MLB debut to the tune of a .534 OPS in 85 PA. That will obviously have to improve quite a bit for him to be an everyday player.