Fangraphs' Top Prospect List Predictions

[RustyJ]

I don’t think I really buy into old school scouting that much anymore. This is a nice general guide, but some of the specifics just feel like subjective perceptions based on small sample sizes. Doug’s already brought up literal speed data that totally contradicts the ratings presented by FG. 45 game power for Elly…sheesh

[Bourgeois Zee]

Fangraphs trotted out its top prospect list-- this year a Top 112 (due to similar scouting grades).

5 Reds made the list:
94. Noelvi Marte
71. Cam Collier
52. Edwin Arroyo
47. Spencer Steer
6. Elly De La Cruz

Things I Found Interesting:

- One prospect from each level-- AAA for Steer, AA for De La Cruz, A+ for Marte, A- for Arroyo, and Rookie Level for Collier. Augers well for consistent help (and at least one starter level prospect) brought up each season through 2027... except Longenhagen and company assume Marte moves slightly ahead of schedule (2024) and Collier slightly behind (2028).

- Longenhagen's ETA suggests the Reds will have Collier repeat in Arizona. (Well, repeat is an odd choice of words, considering he only had a handful of PAs.)

- De La Cruz is one of 12 "60" prospects. (Two "65" guys headline the list.) He's got two present "70" scouting grades-- one for his arm and one for his legs. He also has two future "70" grades-- for his raw and game power. That's four "70" tools. Jordan Walker (STL) has three. No one else has more than two.

- De La Cruz is tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Francisco Alvarez for worst FV hit tool among the top 14, at 40.

- Total prospects by level:
R: 6
A-: 16
A+: 10
AA: 36
AAA: 20
MLB: 24

That lack of A+ players is odd. Might be a product of drafting later or perhaps a logjam due to the pandemic. Could be a clear bias toward older players-- and, oddly, teenagers as well. Those in-betweeners might be getting dinged. Could be a blind spot in A+-- maybe not as many eyes on that level. Most likely, they see a lack of talent in last year's A+ class or teams were being aggressive with prospects in A+ ball-- if they do well in small samples there, prospects can then be pushed to AA. It might be a tacit understanding that teams don't value A+ and therefore don't send their best prospects through that level. For whatever reason, A+ is seriously underrepresented, and AA is overrepresented.

- In the Yankee bias news of the day, Anthony Volpe (NYY) has one 60 tool (FV game power), three tools ranked at 45 or below, and he's still a 60 prospect. (This is why I despise Longenhagen's rankings. They make absolutely no sense. On a website dedicated to attempting to parse sublety through numbers, no less.)

- Cincinnati has five guys on the list. Arizona has six, as do Baltimore, the Dodgers, the Mets, and Cleveland. Boston, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa, Texas, and Washington also has five. That would seemingly put the Reds in the top 10 (or 11) systems in the game, based only on upside. Fwiw, the Reds have five guys who have 45 or 45+ grades below these five.The Pirates have 8. Tampa has six. Not sure about the other teams around them.

What did you guys find interesting (if anything)?

[mth123]

I'm surprised Steer is ranked so high and Marte so low. He downgraded Marte for his size, but if he can hit, it won't matter. Didn't bother Miguel Cabrera. Also surprised Steer is rated as high as he is. Seems like average across the board guy who can be a useful big leaguer, but not ahead of potential stars like Marte and Collier. He must be that high purely due to being in the majors already.

The guy who I think will be a solid every day big league player who isn't in the top 112 is Matt McLain. Power, Speed, some defense, draws walks. Seems to think he isn't strong enough to hold up over 162 games, and that may be true, but adding strength seems like something easier to do than finding plate discipline, improving a poor arm or becoming a better defender.

[RedTeamGo!]

FG sucks at this point with regard to prospect rankings. They’ve lost all of their quality folks.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'm surprised Steer is ranked so high and Marte so low. He downgraded Marte for his size, but if he can hit, it won't matter. Didn't bother Miguel Cabrera. Also surprised Steer is rated as high as he is. Seems like average across the board guy who can be a useful big leaguer, but not ahead of potential stars like Marte and Collier. He must be that high purely due to being in the majors already.

The guy who I think will be a solid every day big league player who isn't in the top 112 is Matt McLain. Power, Speed, some defense, draws walks. Seems to think he isn't strong enough to hold up over 162 games, and that may be true, but adding strength seems like something easier to do than finding plate discipline, improving a poor arm or becoming a better defender.

I'm not a fan of Longenhagen in any form. His rankings are so haphazard and are, IMO, driven to be that way do that readers will react.

What happens here is that he can, in essence, have it both ways.

To wit:

- Marte comes into camp, shows out as the power-hitting middle-of-the-order hitter most experts think he might become. He hits well in AA over half a season, then in AAA over half a season as a 3B. Longenhagen can say that Marte's scouting report was remarkably similar to 73 others (all the "50" guys). Marte, then, displayed a "better body" or "transitioned well to a new position" or "made a mechanical adjustment" over the season. This can result in a higher ranking next season, perhaps back up to the "55" he had previously.

What Fangraphs is good for, for me, is the numbers. They have some great numbers that are parsed out bit by bit. (For example, Edwin Arroyo's peak exit velocities are between 106 - 108 mph, which is a bit below MLB. average, but good for a 19-year-old who hasn't fully developed.) I can't get those numbers without paying for them-- even then, I'm not sure where I could find them. If anyone has any way they can, I'm all ears.

Marte is being ranked low because his body filled out, and he was worn out in the AFL. He profiles now as a corner guy (or, in my dreams, a CF) instead of a SS. That's literally the only reason to rank him in the 90s. If he continues to hit, he'll be a middle of the order hitter with good patience, fewer Ks, and a solid BA. His arm is easily plus, so he's a fit (at worst) as a RF. (Which is a spot the Reds could use him at.) I'm not sweating the ranking so much as the searching for the numbers or reasoning behind it.

Longenhagen (and by extension all of Fangraphs) overvalues defensive versatility, particularly CF, SS, and occasionally 3B. (Oddly, they don't seem to like many 2B, unless they can also play 3B or SS or CF.) Steer profiles as an average guy across multiple positions. You're right in that there is absolutely no reason to rank him higher than Marte, who profiles as an above average bat at other positions.

[JCM11]

Collier doesn't need to be wasting any time in Arizona. He's already competed against players several years older than him and done well.