Fangraphs' Top Prospect List Predictions

[mth123]

Some guys are really advanced and beat up on minor league pitching or they have outstanding tools with a huge flaw that minor league pitchers don't know how to exploit. When they reach the majors, they stop being more advanced or the pitchers know how to use those flaws against them and carve them up. I think Nick Senzel is an example of a guy who was more advanced in the minor leagues, but when he reached the majors he no longer was.

Fangraphs seems to have bucketed pretty much all the Reds prospects in one of those groups. For this rebuild to go anywhere. De La Cruz, Marte and CES have to become guys who can produce in the middle (spots 2 through 5) of a big league line-up.

[RedTeamGo!]

Some guys are really advanced and beat up on minor league pitching or they have outstanding tools with a huge flaw that minor league pitchers don't know how to exploit. When they reach the majors, they stop being more advanced or the pitchers know how to use those flaws against them and carve them up. I think Nick Senzel is an example of a guy who was more advanced in the minor leagues, but when he reached the majors he no longer was.

Fangraphs seems to have bucketed pretty much all the Reds prospects in one of those groups. For this rebuild to go anywhere. De La Cruz, Marte and CES have to become guys who can produce in the middle (spots 2 through 5) of a big league line-up.

I don’t think Nick Senzel is an example of anything other than someone who has had their career wrecked by injuries. I think he is a straight up bad player at this point, however, his development was completely wrecked by injury. IIRC he hit pretty decently early in MLB career but has suffered a mountain of injuries since so he was unable to actually develop at mlb level. Now, I’m not saying he can still get there, because I don’t think he can at this point.

[mth123]

I don’t think Nick Senzel is an example of anything other than someone who has had their career wrecked by injuries. I think he is a straight up bad player at this point, however, his development was completely wrecked by injury. IIRC he hit pretty decently early in MLB career but has suffered a mountain of injuries since so he was unable to actually develop at mlb level. Now, I’m not saying he can still get there, because I don’t think he can at this point.

I don't think injuries are the reason Senzel can't hit. He was an advanced hitter coming out of college and beat-up on minor leaguers who weren't as advanced as him. When he reached the big leagues, he no longer was more advanced than everyone else and this is who he is as a big leaguer. Its happened thoudsands of times in baseball history.

Fangraphs seems to have the reds hitters in the other category. They have the tools but a fatal flaw in the hit tool the big-league pitchers will take advantage of and make them look silly. The good news is that there are plenty of minor league pitching talents pitching in the big leagues these days with 13 man pitching staffs, so they'll probably do some damage against those weaker pitchers as big leaguers. I'm hoping that fangraphs is wrong and that some of the flaws they point out are fixable. I was most disappointed with their take on CES and Marte and the evaluation that Arroyo probably can't stick at SS. They do think McLain can stick, but probably as a utility infielder. That's not the big-league core we've been waiting on.

This is only one evaluator, so it's not a fate set in stone, but with all the hype around the Reds system, it sure lets the air out of our tires.

[Mitri]

I don't think injuries are the reason Senzel can't hit. He was an advanced hitter coming out of college and beat-up on minor leaguers who weren't as advanced as him. When he reached the big leagues, he no longer was more advanced than everyone else and this is who he is as a big leaguer. Its happened thoudsands of times in baseball history.

Fangraphs seems to have the reds hitters in the other category. They have the tools but a fatal flaw in the hit tool the big-league pitchers will take advantage of and make them look silly. The good news is that there are plenty of minor league pitching talents pitching in the big leagues these days with 13 man pitching staffs, so they'll probably do some damage against those weaker pitchers as big leaguers. I'm hoping that fangraphs is wrong and that some of the flaws they point out are fixable. I was most disappointed with their take on CES and Marte and the evaluation that Arroyo probably can't stick at SS. They do think McLain can stick, but probably as a utility infielder. That's not the big-league core we've been waiting on.

This is only one evaluator, so it's not a fate set in stone, but with all the hype around the Reds system, it sure lets the air out of our tires.

I see it totally differently. This was a fairly rosy take on the system. In the FG world Steer (corners), McLain (SS) and Siani (CF) are everyday contributors, ELDC (3B/RF) is a stud and Marte (RF/CF) is a boom or bust type. Arroyo can happily be a defense-first 2B with CES about what I see him as (a clunky fielder who'll need to hit a ton to make it into the lineup). Collier is a slam-dunk 3B, eventually. All but Collier/Arroyo will be up in the next 18 months which means India/Stephenson are the veteran foundational guys to build on. And who knows, maybe a solid free agent or two will be signed.

Not a lot to complain about on the position player projection from his assessment. I'm more worried about the long-term pitching outlook.

[mth123]

I see it totally differently. This was a fairly rosy take on the system. In the FG world Steer (corners), McLain (SS) and Siani (CF) are everyday contributors, ELDC (3B/RF) is a stud and Marte (RF/CF) is a boom or bust type. Arroyo can happily be a defense-first 2B with CES about what I see him as (a clunky fielder who'll need to hit a ton to make it into the lineup). Collier is a slam-dunk 3B, eventually. All but Collier/Arroyo will be up in the next 18 months which means India/Stephenson are the veteran foundational guys to build on. And who knows, maybe a solid free agent or two will be signed.

Not a lot to complain about on the position player projection from his assessment. I'm more worried about the long-term pitching outlook.

I see one position player who projects to be better than average and that's EDLC and his write-up basically called him a huge risk.

As far as the pitchers go, I'm not dismayed because its what I thought as well. This team needs three middle of the order bats and at least a couple of other every day caliber players to emerge. I don't see that happening any time soon.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I see one position player who projects to be better than average and that's EDLC and his write-up basically called him a huge risk.

As far as the pitchers go, I'm not dismayed because its what I thought as well. This team needs three middle of the order bats and at least a couple of other every day caliber players to emerge. I don't see that happening any time soon.

Longenhagen is the same guy who insisted that Lodolo was league average, Ashcraft was destined to be a middle relief arm, and Greene would be barely above ground. He gave Jose Barrero glowing reports and dismissed Tyler Stephenson as an average backstop. Jonathan India was an afterthought, at best-- a below league average performer or short-side platoon bat. He's championed Daniel Vellojin, Allan Cerda, and others, well ahead of industry expectations.

13 players have graduated to the major league level the last three seasons, not including the injured Vlad Gutierrez. Longenhagen's predictions have missed subtantially (>5 points on the scale, one way or the other) on 10 of them. By order of miss, they include:

- Jose Barrero (55)
- Nick Lodolo (50)
- Tyler Stephenson (50)
- Jose DeLeon (40)
- Riley O'Brien (40)
- Jared Solomon (40)
- Graham Ashcraft (40 & 40+)
- Alexis Diaz (35+)
- Jonathan India (45)
- TJ Friedl (40)

So far, he's hit on Hunter Greene (55), though that could make him look really silly if Greene is more the guy over his last six starts and maybe Revier Sanmartin (35+). He gets credit for Sanmartin not because of his would-be analysis, but because the numbers are similar enough for a BOR SP and a slightly below league average middle reliever. Depending on your thoughts on Alejo Lopez, he might get close there as well (35+).

He doesn't exactly have a sterling track record of picking correctly.

[Mitri]

I see one position player who projects to be better than average and that's EDLC and his write-up basically called him a huge risk.

As far as the pitchers go, I'm not dismayed because its what I thought as well. This team needs three middle of the order bats and at least a couple of other every day caliber players to emerge. I don't see that happening any time soon.

60 FV = all-star (3.4-4.9 fWAR)
50 FV = average everyday regular (1.6-2.4 fWAR)

So in Longenhagen's scenario, Elly is an all-star with a mega-stud ceiling and maybe a 45 FV floor. Steer and Marte are solid everyday regulars. Siani, McLain and CES are platoon guys with enough upside to push into starting roles. India and Stephenson are entrenched as near all-star-level veterans. On the pitching side they've just graduated two 60 FV types and a few other 45+/50 FV guy in Ashcraft and Diaz. Petty is another SP regular with Abbott, Phillips and Williamson as SP options. Longenhagen also seems to like quite a few of their relief prospects. Lots of talent in the lower minors beginning with Collier and Arroyo, too.

For a typical franchise, this would be more than enough to work with. The problem I have is envisioning the Reds actually supplementing this talent with the right coaching and development, and spending the money on free agents to fill the gaps. Shouldn't be too much of a challenge, but this is the Reds. They're a disaster.

[RedTeamGo!]

Notice I said at the MLB level where his slg % was .326 in 108 PA. I didn't see much pop in his bat or explosiveness as an athlete from him. His average exit velo and hard hit % were well below MLB averages. Maybe he settles in next year and shows some of that power at the big boy league, but if he doesn't he's a not an everyday third baseman.

Steer had major split differences in the minors with a .765 OPS vs RHP and a .998 OPS vs LHP. He got ate up by RHP in his MLB debut to the tune of a .534 OPS in 85 PA. That will obviously have to improve quite a bit for him to be an everyday player.

108 PA???

[mth123]

60 FV = all-star (3.4-4.9 fWAR)
50 FV = average everyday regular (1.6-2.4 fWAR)

So in Longenhagen's scenario, Elly is an all-star with a mega-stud ceiling and maybe a 45 FV floor. Steer and Marte are solid everyday regulars. Siani, McLain and CES are platoon guys with enough upside to push into starting roles. India and Stephenson are entrenched as near all-star-level veterans. On the pitching side they've just graduated two 60 FV types and a few other 45+/50 FV guy in Ashcraft and Diaz. Petty is another SP regular with Abbott, Phillips and Williamson as SP options. Longenhagen also seems to like quite a few of their relief prospects. Lots of talent in the lower minors beginning with Collier and Arroyo, too.

For a typical franchise, this would be more than enough to work with. The problem I have is envisioning the Reds actually supplementing this talent with the right coaching and development, and spending the money on free agents to fill the gaps. Shouldn't be too much of a challenge, but this is the Reds. They're a disaster.

I agree all of that could happen. For this team to contend, they need 3 guys to be well above average players added to Stephenson and India. They also need at least one more play-off caliber starting pitcher. And, they need all of this to happen at the same time. Arroyo and Collier probably are 2026 or later pieces. By then the Greene, Lodolo window will be closing as they'll be second year arb eligible and the Reds will look to move them for more 19 year olds.

For this team to realistically have a window, India and Stephenson need to rebound with health and production and three guys out of Steer, Marte, De La Cruz, Encarnacion-Strand and McLain will need to rise to the level of middle of the order offensive player and the other two will need to be guys at least good enough to capably fill a hole at the bottom of the order. Fraley and Barrero are the other guys who might step forward and help. If they get all of that, they can contend for a wild-card spot. If they want to win a division or move deep into the post-season, they need another play-off caliber starting pitcher (assuming Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft stay healthy and don't regress at all) and a couple guys to step forward as late inning shut-down types. I could see those starter candidates filling those bullpen spots, so that may come from within.

[JCM11]

108 PA???

Yeah that's 1/5 of a full season and plenty of time to show some potential if it's there. Steer got ate up by big league RHP, and will have to make an adjustment there if he wants to be an everyday player. I see him as a first player off the bench super sub as things stand now. Of course he'll get the chance to start in 2023 and he needs to take advantage of the opportunity. I could see him as a .750ish OPS guy who is a valuable asset if everything goes well.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yeah that's 1/5 of a full season and plenty of time to show some potential if it's there. Steer got ate up by big league RHP, and will have to make an adjustment there if he wants to be an everyday player. I see him as a first player off the bench super sub as things stand now. Of course he'll get the chance to start in 2023 and he needs to take advantage of the opportunity. I could see him as a .750ish OPS guy who is a valuable asset if everything goes well.

You can see him however you want. A late season call-up at the very beginning of your mlb career means absolutely nothing. Good or bad.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I agree all of that could happen. For this team to contend, they need 3 guys to be well above ovaregae players added to Stephenson and India. They also need at least one more play-off caliber starting pitcher. And, they need all of this to happen at the same time.

Nah.

- Stephenson staying healthy and providing a 150 wRC+ bat looks possible through 2027. (Even better as a part-time catcher.)
- India moving back to that 120+ wRC+ bat from his rookie year seems possible as well.
- Fraley was a 120 wRC+ last year in 250 PAs-- he was a 900 OPS bat when healthy and given full-time PAs in the second half. He's on the same free agency timeline as India and Stephenson too.
- Assume Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B), Steer (3B or 2B), and Marte (3B or RF) are league average for their positions.

If the CF platoon (Friedl/ Fairchild, Siani?) remains league average, "all" they need is EDLC to be that 60 All-Star bat in the middle of the order. (Fixing the massive black holes of suck allow teams to play up consistently.)

In terms of pitching, you'd need one of Williamson/ Stoudt/ Abbott/ Boyle/ Phillips/ Spiers/ Roa/ Bonnin/ Petty to be league average (< 4.20 ERA) and healthy enough to muster 150 IP. Alternatively, you might see Lodolo and Greene become aces, Ashcraft take a small step forward, and the back of the rotation keep the Reds in games (< 4.90 ERA) and 150+ IP.

The key isn't that they all develop into All-Stars. It's that they all remain healthy. (Or failing that, that they have ready replacements who can perform to that level.)

I suspect the Reds will have a real window of competition for 2025 and 2026 if they choose to keep all of their players through free agency.

[mth123]

Nah.

- Stephenson staying healthy and providing a 150 wRC+ bat looks possible through 2027. (Even better as a part-time catcher.)
- India moving back to that 120+ wRC+ bat from his rookie year seems possible as well.
- Fraley was a 120 wRC+ last year in 250 PAs-- he was a 900 OPS bat when healthy and given full-time PAs in the second half. He's on the same free agency timeline as India and Stephenson too.
- Assume Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B), Steer (3B or 2B), and Marte (3B or RF) are league average for their positions.

If the CF platoon (Friedl/ Fairchild, Siani?) remains league average, "all" they need is EDLC to be that 60 All-Star bat in the middle of the order. (Fixing the massive black holes of suck allow teams to play up consistently.)

In terms of pitching, you'd need one of Williamson/ Stoudt/ Abbott/ Boyle/ Phillips/ Spiers/ Roa/ Bonnin/ Petty to be league average (< 4.20 ERA) and healthy enough to muster 150 IP. Alternatively, you might see Lodolo and Greene become aces, Ashcraft take a small step forward, and the back of the rotation keep the Reds in games (< 4.90 ERA) and 150+ IP.

The key isn't that they all develop into All-Stars. It's that they all remain healthy. (Or failing that, that they have ready replacements who can perform to that level.)

I suspect the Reds will have a real window of competition for 2025 and 2026 if they choose to keep all of their players through free agency.

If we assume India and Stephenson can be productive and healthy (which I'm assuming as well) and EDLC is a legit star. that's three guys deep. So, if CES is a league average 1B he'd be a fourth. That's a lot different than what this write up is saying. It seesm to projecting CES as a short side of a platoon type with a 40 FV. This write-up also seems to be projecting Marte and Steer as more averagish bottom of the order types not middle of the order production. I'm still a skeptic on Fraley, but lets assume he can be a solid guy who can provide production in the 5 or 6 hole.

Teams that win have three good starters and a solid line-up that goes 5 or 6 deep with above average bats and solid players who aren't blackholes at the bottom of the order (maybe get by with one black hole hitting 8th or 9th). They also get averagish innings from the 4th starter and go 4 or 5 deep in guys who can pitch important situations in the bullpen. I'm not reading this from this write-up. If these projections are correct, this team will be 2 bats and 1 starting pitcher short.

If I thought they had any clue about what they were doing, I'd be OK with that and assume they'd go out and acquire what's missing. I don't have any faith that this front office is willing or capable of doing that. I need to see it happen before I'll believe in it at this point.

[JCM11]

You can see him however you want. A late season call-up at the very beginning of your mlb career means absolutely nothing. Good or bad.

Games against MLB pitching tell me more about a player(especially one who just turned 25) than games against minor league pitching. Steer beat up on minor league pitchers that he was older than(.894 OPS) and was pretty good against older pitchers(.819 OPS). In 2022 he was once again 200 points lower vs RHP with a sub .770 OPS which is a bit of a red flag for me. My response is to fangraphs ranking him second in our system which I think is pretty ridiculous.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If we assume India and Stephenson can be productive and healthy (which I'm assuming as well) and EDLC is a legit star. that's three guys deep. So, if CES is a league average 1B he'd be a fourth. That's a lot different than what this write up is saying. It seesmt to projecting CES as a short side of a platoon type with a 40 FV. This write-up also seems to be projecting Marte and Steer as more averagish bottom of the order types not middle of teh order production.

50 is an average value player, not average offensively.

Since Longenhagen dismisses CES as a 1B/ DH type, he would have a poor glove grade. CES, then, is taking a massive hit defensively. Therefore, his bat profiles to be slightly above league average (likely 110 wRC+ or 120+ but the short-side platoon of a LH slugger). Think CJ Cron, who's acculumated a 111 wRC+, but only 9.2 fWAR in his 9 seasons as an MLB regular/ semi-regular.

Ditto (but to a lesser extent) Marte and Steer, both of whom are dinged defensively (if less so than CES). (McLain, otoh, because of Longenhagen's effusive praise defensively, gets the 50 grade primarily on that and his power. He's likely projected to be below league average offensively, but retain value through his glove.)

Longenhagen's 2024 or 2025 lineup looks like this:
C Stephenson/ Vellojin
1B Encarnacion-Strand
2B India
SS EDLC
3B Steer
LF Fraley
CF Friedl/ Fairchild OR Siani
RF Marte

That lineup, if you believe Longenhagen's projections, is well above league average offensively. It contains no offensive black holes, though catcher would take a massive hit when Stephenson moved to DH. If Fraley, India, and Stephenson are 120 wRC+ bats, it contains seven league average of better hitters and perhaps all eight. That in itself is enough to be in contention as a team.

It's below average defensively (though Siani would help), but that's another discussion (and another leap of faith for Longenhagen's prospect prognositication skills).