Redszone 2023 Top 40 prospects Poll: #36

[podgejeff_]

Ivan Johnson takes one of the last six spots available. Luis Mey is up next.

01. Elly De La Cruz SS/3B AA 20
02. Noelvi Marte SS A+ 21
03. Cam Collier 3B ROK 17
04. Edwin Arroyo SS A 19
05. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA 22
06. Matt McLain SS AA 23
07. Chase Petty RHP A+ 19
08. Spencer Steer INF MLB 24
09. Brandon Williamson LHP AAA 24
10. Connor Phillips RHP AA 21
11. Sal Stewart 3B ROK 18
12. Andrew Abbott LHP AA 23
13. Joe Boyle RHP AA 23
14. Levi Stoudt RHP MLB 24
15. Jay Allen II OF A+ 20
16. Michael Siani OF MLB 23
17. Austin Hendrick OF A+ 21
18. Rece Hinds OF AA 22
19. Ricardo Cabrera SS ROK 18
20. Christian Roa RHP AA 23
21. Lyon Richardson RHP A+ 22
22. Carlos Jorge 2B ROK 19
23. Ariel Almonte OF ROK 19
24. Jose Acuna RHP A 20
25. Victor Acosta SS ROK 18
25. Bryce Bonnin RHP A+ 24
27. Julian Aguiar RHP A+ 21
28. Yerlin Confidan OF A 20
29. Javi Rivera RHP A+ 23
30. Tyler Callihan 2B A+ 22
30. Alex McGarry 1B AAA 24
32. Leonardo Balcazar SS ROK 18
33. Bryce Hubbart LHP A 21
34. Esmith Pineda OF DSL 18
35. Ivan Johnson 2B/SS AA 24

[Bourgeois Zee]

Until Ivan Johnson, I could kind of see why RedsZone chose who they did in the spot they did. Some were a little too high. Some were a little too low, but overall, I'm within a few picks or scouting reports one way or another.

Johnson barely cracks my personal Top 50. I have two would-be AAA middle infielder backups ahead of him on my list, and he doesn't even make my top 50.

That K rate, the substandard glove at SS, the lack of versatility, the relatively poor BA, the lack of health/ development, the lack of BBs-- beyond age and level, there's little to differentiate Johnson from Brian Rey (who is at least capable of playing OF) or Francisco Urbaez (who had a far better season even if it was interrupted by injury).

There is, IMO, a clear tier of prospect that still has some intriguing names to consider. Ascanio, Hector Rodriguez, Logan Tanner, Cade Hunter, Daniel Vellojin, Justin Boyd, Steve Hajjar, Carlos Sanchez-- all would be considered interesting in shallower pools. All have shown real tools, production, or both. Even among flawed prospects, Allan Cerda, Mat Nelson, Carson Spiers, and Jose Torres show carrying tools more advanced and/or more important than those of Johnson.

And that doesn't even include relief arm lottery tickets (Andrew Moore, Vin Tampanelli, Stevie Branche) who might move quickly and become helpful at the major league level as early as this season.

As is, Johnson profiles to be a backup to the backup at SS, 2B, and 3B.

Can someone explain their thought process here?

[Tom Servo]

Well now that Ivan is off the board I don't know who to vote for. I guess Cerda, I still get Siri lite vibes from him.

Until Ivan Johnson, I could kind of see why RedsZone chose who they did in the spot they did. Some were a little too high. Some were a little too low, but overall, I'm within a few picks or scouting reports one way or another.

Johnson barely cracks my personal Top 50. I have two would-be AAA middle infielder backups ahead of him on my list, and he doesn't even make my top 50.

That K rate, the substandard glove at SS, the lack of versatility, the relatively poor BA, the lack of health/ development, the lack of BBs-- beyond age and level, there's little to differentiate Johnson from Brian Rey (who is at least capable of playing OF) or Francisco Urbaez (who had a far better season even if it was interrupted by injury).

There is, IMO, a clear tier of prospect that still has some intriguing names to consider. Ascanio, Hector Rodriguez, Logan Tanner, Cade Hunter, Daniel Vellojin, Justin Boyd, Steve Hajjar, Carlos Sanchez-- all would be considered interesting in shallower pools. All have shown real tools, production, or both. Even among flawed prospects, Allan Cerda, Mat Nelson, Carson Spiers, and Jose Torres show carrying tools more advanced and/or more important than those of Johnson.

And that doesn't even include relief arm lottery tickets (Andrew Moore, Vin Tampanelli, Stevie Branche) who might move quickly and become helpful at the major league level as early as this season.

As is, Johnson profiles to be a backup to the backup at SS, 2B, and 3B.

Can someone explain their thought process here?

A bit of the mth123 method of "will these guys even reach that level" logic but with guys who are a bit younger and can stick at positions that might actually lead to them making the majors.

[podgejeff_]

Until Ivan Johnson, I could kind of see why RedsZone chose who they did in the spot they did. Some were a little too high. Some were a little too low, but overall, I'm within a few picks or scouting reports one way or another.

Johnson barely cracks my personal Top 50. I have two would-be AAA middle infielder backups ahead of him on my list, and he doesn't even make my top 50.

That K rate, the substandard glove at SS, the lack of versatility, the relatively poor BA, the lack of health/ development, the lack of BBs-- beyond age and level, there's little to differentiate Johnson from Brian Rey (who is at least capable of playing OF) or Francisco Urbaez (who had a far better season even if it was interrupted by injury).

There is, IMO, a clear tier of prospect that still has some intriguing names to consider. Ascanio, Hector Rodriguez, Logan Tanner, Cade Hunter, Daniel Vellojin, Justin Boyd, Steve Hajjar, Carlos Sanchez-- all would be considered interesting in shallower pools. All have shown real tools, production, or both. Even among flawed prospects, Allan Cerda, Mat Nelson, Carson Spiers, and Jose Torres show carrying tools more advanced and/or more important than those of Johnson.

And that doesn't even include relief arm lottery tickets (Andrew Moore, Vin Tampanelli, Stevie Branche) who might move quickly and become helpful at the major league level as early as this season.

As is, Johnson profiles to be a backup to the backup at SS, 2B, and 3B.

Can someone explain their thought process here?

I must admit I'm a little surprised at Logan Tanner's lack of support considering a position of need, second round pedigree, and the only real knock so far are 60 ABs of lackluster production. At this point in the poll anyway.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Well now that Ivan is off the board I don't know who to vote for. I guess Cerda, I still get Siri lite vibes from him.


A bit of the mth123 method of "will these guys even reach that level" logic but with guys who are a bit younger and can stick at positions that might actually lead to them making the majors.

So why not Allan Cerda, Mat Nelson, or Jose Torres instead, who will almost assuredly reach AA and have specific position and defensive advantages over Johnson?

Or Rey and Urbaez, who had better seasons offensively and offer more versatility defensively?

Or Vin Tampanelli or Carson Spiers, who are much more likely to be given rope at the major league club due to a massive shortage of help at their position(s)?

All would seem to be better choices to me.

[mth123]

Been voting for Spiers for a while now. If you squint real hard you can see him having a few seasons as a back end guy. You have to squint really, really hard with any of these guys at this point.

[Mitri]

I voted for Hajjar. He's sort of interesting as a big, lefty, back-of-rotation type. This blurb from Fangraphs sold me:

While drafted out of college, Hajjar is still more of a developmental prospect tracking like a back-of-the rotation type right now, though he has a chance to pop if he can throw harder. His low-90s fastball has riding life that makes it playable at the letters, he has feel for a slider and changeup that are both consistently average or better (though neither is dominant), and you can project on elements of Hajjar’s skill set in the abstract because he’s put together great, has a smooth, elegant delivery, was young for his draft class, and lost crucial reps due to the pandemic.

I voted for Johson at #35 in part because I see him fitting as a left-handed utility guy. His power will play, he's got speed; reports on his glove at 2B are solid. It's weird to call people out this late in the game, if you're still voting at this point I don't see the need to really spend paragraphs defending picks. All of these guys are suspects or very far away, we all have preferences most of this is a guessing game anyway.

[Bourgeois Zee]

You have to squint really, really hard with any of these guys at this point.

Totally disagree-- and that's my point.

Torres, Nelson, Vellojin, and Cerda are, because of their defensive abilities or position and level, likely going to end up playing in the major leagues (unless they get injured this season) for years. They're surely going to get at least a shot. Because of positional scarcity, Nelson, Cerda, and Vellojin will almost assuredly be around a long, long time-- and will, if they produce at an offensive level ten percent below league average, start at said position and provide at least 1.0 WAR while doing so. Torres' defensive chops and power/ speed combination presages a long career ahead of him as a utility guy. Tampanelli and Branche are the types to play the I-71 yo-yo while they're under team control. Do well, and the relief spot is essentially theirs. At the least, they'll be given three years' worth of chances.

And that's just at the top two levels.

Beyond them, Hunter and Tanner are exactly the type of draft picks that spend a decade at the major league level. If you want to squint, Carlos Sanchez just had a monster season in the Dominican. Hector Rodriguez split his monster year (.333/ .372/ .536/ .908 with 16 SB across nearly 200 PAs) across four teams and two levels while playing all three OF spots and 2B. That type of season at the lower levels augers well for major league chances later on. Even a cypher like Steve Hajjar is a LH with good scouting grades on control and offspeed stuff-- those types consistently project and perform highly.

This system is super deep with useable, interesting prospects, and remarkably little of it requires squinting.

Johnson, meanwhile, has a definite ceiling on his chances. India, Steer, and Barrero are ahead of him on the roster. So are Newman and Lopez. EDLC, McLain, and CES play his positions in Louisville. Marte and Torres are immediately behind him, while Arroyo and Callihan are in the next iteration of prospects. He's akin to Brian Rey and Francisco Urbaez, both of whom had better or commesurate seasons with him last year.

That's an absolute ton of bodies he has to climb over to get a fair shake to just make the parent club, then impress enough to get PAs.

[Bourgeois Zee]

It's weird to call people out this late in the game, if you're still voting at this point I don't see the need to really spend paragraphs defending picks.

This is an extremely odd take. You're on a baseball message board. This is exactly the type of thing we spend paragraphs defending.

What else are you going to do?

[mth123]

Totally disagree-- and that's my point.

Torres, Nelson, Vellojin, and Cerda are, because of their defensive abilities or position and level, likely going to end up playing in the major leagues (unless they get injured this season) for years. They're surely going to get at least a shot. Because of positional scarcity, Nelson, Cerda, and Vellojin will almost assuredly be around a long, long time-- and will, if they produce at an offensive level ten percent below league average, start at said position and provide at least 1.0 WAR while doing so. Torres' defensive chops and power/ speed combination presages a long career ahead of him as a utility guy. Tampanelli and Branche are the types to play the I-71 yo-yo while they're under team control. Do well, and the relief spot is essentially theirs. At the least, they'll be given three years' worth of chances.

And that's just at the top two levels.

Beyond them, Hunter and Tanner are exactly the type of draft picks that spend a decade at the major league level. If you want to squint, Carlos Sanchez just had a monster season in the Dominican. Hector Rodriguez split his monster year (.333/ .372/ .536/ .908 with 16 SB across nearly 200 PAs) across four teams and two levels while playing all three OF spots and 2B. That type of season at the lower levels augers well for major league chances later on. Even a cypher like Steve Hajjar is a LH with good scouting grades on control and offspeed stuff-- those types consistently project and perform highly.

This system is super deep with useable, interesting prospects, and remarkably little of it requires squinting.

Johnson, meanwhile, has a definite ceiling on his chances. India, Steer, and Barrero are ahead of him on the roster. So are Newman and Lopez. EDLC, McLain, and CES play his positions in Louisville. Marte and Torres are immediately behind him, while Arroyo and Callihan are in the next iteration of prospects. He's akin to Brian Rey and Francisco Urbaez, both of whom had better or commesurate seasons with him last year.

That's an absolute ton of bodies he has to climb over to get a fair shake to just make the parent club, then impress enough to get PAs.

This entire post is an example of squinting very hard.

[Bourgeois Zee]

This entire post is an example of squinting very hard.

Or, y'know, looking at history.

[krazzy]

1. Elly De La Cruz. AA
304/359/586/945
7.8 BB%, 30.8 SO%, 28 HR, 47 SB

2. Noelvi Marte A+
279/371/458/829
11.3 BB%, 20.6 SO%, 19 HR, 23 SB

3. Edwin Arroyo A-
293/366/480/846
8.7 BB%, 23.3 SO%, 14 HR, 27 SB

4. Cam Collier ACL 370/514/630/1.144
20.0 BB%, 17.1 BB%, 2 HR, 0 SB

5. Chase Petty A+
25 G, 98.1 IP, 31 BB, 96 SO, 3.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

6. Christian Encarnacion Strand AA
304/368/587/955
7.4 BB%, 25.5 SO%, 32 HR, 8 SB

7. Spencer Steer ML
262 353/481/834
10.3 BB%, 19.2 SO%, 25 HR, 4 SB

8. Matt Mclain AA
229/367/443/810
16.4 BB%, 27.3 SO%, 17 HR, 28 SB

9. Connor Phillips AA 24 G, 109.2 IP, 66 BB, 150 SO, 3.78 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

10. . Andrew Abbott AA
25 G, 118.0 IP, 48 BB, 159 SO, 3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

11. Brandon Williamson AAA
27 G, 122.2 IP, 77 BB, 123 SO, 4.11 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

12. Sal Stewart. ACL 292/393/458/851
14.3 BB%, 17.9 SO%, 0 HR, 0 SB

13. Ricardo Cabrera DSL 253/363/380/743
13 BB, 40 SO in 150 ABs. 1 HR, 5 SB

14. Steve Hajjar A+.
15 G, 52.1 IP, 32 BB, 83 SO, 3.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

15. Victor Acosta. ACL 237/348/360/708
12.7 BB%, 22.4 SO%, 5 SB, 2 HR

16. Levi Stoudt AAA
25 G, 111.0 IP, 30 BB, 103 SO, 4.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

17. Carlos Jorge. ACL 261/405/529/934
16.2 BB%, 26.6 SO%, 7 HR, 27 SB

18. Michael Siani AA
248/338/393/731
11.0 BB%, 17.2 SO%, 14 HR, 52 SB

19. Joe Boyle AA
23 G, 100.2 IP, 84 BB, 153 SO, 2.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

20. Christian Roa. AA
21 G, 92.0 IP, 57 BB, 104 SO, 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

21. Bryce Bonnin A+
6 G, 25 IP, 12 BB, 28 SO 2.52 ERA, 0.92 WHIP

22. Allan Cerda AA
208/360/444/803
16.6 BB%, 32.8 SO%, 24 HR, 7 SB

23. Jay Allen A+
225/347/324/671
11.5 BB%, 24.0 SO%, 3 HR, 43 SB

24. Javi Rivera A+
24 G, 93 IP, 25 BB, 111 SO
3.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

25. Julian Aguiar A
25 G, 96.1 IP, 27 BB, 113 SO
3.46 ERA, 1.215 WHIP

26. Leonardo Balcazar. ACL 322/411/476/887
10.7 BB%, 25.0 SO%, 13 SB, 4 HR

27. Arial Almonte. ACL 286/399/493/883
12.8 BB%, 29.9 SO%, 6 HR, 1 SB

28.Yerlin Confidan A-
264/369/444/813
2 HR, 1 SB, 14.3 BB%, 28.6 SO%

29. Bryce Hubbart A-
4 G, 4.2 IP, 6 BB, 7 SO, 1.93 ERA, 1.71 WHIP

30. Alex McGarry AAA
264/316/543/859
416 AB, 28 BB, 136 SO, 27 HR, 15 SB