Getting Creative: Starting Pitching Edition

[757690]

We’ve had this discussion before, so I won’t spend much energy on this point, but I think the Reds need bats in the future more than they need arms. I am fine trading for any of these Marlins pitchers if the asking price is prospects, but I don’t to give up any established bats to get an established arm, not right now.

[mth123]

So does his bat project to another position? I like India but he is not good at 2nd, does his bat play at 3rd or as others have said LF?

If 2021 is the real India, his bat plays about anywhere. I think 2023 will answer that question if he stays healthy.

[redsfan9988]

So does his bat project to another position? I like India but he is not good at 2nd, does his bat play at 3rd or as others have said LF?

I think between EDLC, Barrero, Steer, CES, Marte, and Arroyo, the long term infield outlook is pretty good. India is arb eligible next year, and 2024 is going to be veeeeery early in the window. If someone loves his OBP profile and wants to give up young, controllable SP for him, I’d be down. I’d deal India for Rogers or Cabrera. Marlins have loads of SP but are hurting for OBP, so maybe it makes sense.

[mth123]

We’ve had this discussion before, so I won’t spend much energy on this point, but I think the Reds need bats in the future more than they need arms. I am fine trading for any of these Marlins pitchers if the asking price is prospects, but I don’t to give up any established bats to get an established arm, not right now.

If you think Fraley is a long-term bat, I might agree. I don't think anyone acquired in the Winker/Suarez deal is a long term asset. I'd deal all 4 for any of those 4 Florida starters.

[757690]

If you think Fraley is a long-term bat, I might agree. I don't think anyone acquired in the Winker/Suarez deal is a long term asset. I'd deal all 4 for any of those 4 Florida starters.

I don’t see Fraley as a long term bat, I see him as a decent platoon partner until someone better comes along.

I would trade that package for Lopez, but not for any of the others, they all have too many questions and warts to be considered a long term solution. I would be happy if the Reds added any of the other pitchers, but at a much lower cost.

[mth123]

I don’t see Fraley as a long term bat, I see him as a decent platoon partner until someone better comes along.

I would trade that package for Lopez, but not for any of the others, they all have too many questions and warts to be considered a long term solution. I would be happy if the Reds added any of the other pitchers, but at a much lower cost.

I'm pretty sure that the Marlins wouldn't deal any of those starters for those 4 guys.

[herbdizzle]

I'd offer Cam Collier straight up for the best SP the Marlins will give you.

[mth123]

I'd offer Cam Collier straight up for the best SP the Marlins will give you.

I'd probably want something longer term than Lopez if dealing one of the top prospects, but I'd do that for one of the others. Marlins want immediate help to the OF. Fraley almost would have to be included, but my guess is they want to deal Lopez with only 2 years of control remaining so they can replace him with Braxton Garrett and his 6 years of control and want young controllable, established OF help in exchange. The reds probably aren't a match. If they'd do Cabrera or Garrett for Collier/Fraley, I'd do it. My guess is the Marlins would want more or somebody closer to the big leagues.

[Wayne Krivsky]

I'd probably want something longer term than Lopez if dealing one of the top prospects, but I'd do that for one of the others. Marlins want immediate help to the OF. Fraley almost would have to be included, but my guess is they want to deal Lopez with only 2 years of control remaining so they can replace him with Braxton Garrett and his 6 years of control and want young controllable, established OF help in exchange. The reds probably aren't a match. If they'd do Cabrera or Garrett for Collier/Fraley, I'd do it. My guess is the Marlins would want more or somebody closer to the big leagues.

You're spot on in saying the Reds are not a match. The Reds need OF help just as bad as Miami does. For a swap like this to work the Reds need to find a 3rd partner in the deal, maybe a team like Pittsburgh who can flip Bryan Reynolds to Miami, and the Reds send a guy like Collier to Pittsburgh. Probably a bad example as the last thing I want to do is send a high end prospect to a division rival, but you get the point.

[herbdizzle]

I'm willing to deal Collier or even Arroyo as lead trade chips for pitching or outfielders.

[InsaneinthBrame]

The person the Reds need to trade is EDLC to get a SP RP and RF. His value will never be higher sell high.

[Old school 1983]

I think we should retroactively trade Bailey and Votto for Joe Blanton. Cueto and Bruce for Bedard.

Let guys develop. They’ll have a way better idea of who to deal this time next year.

[JCM11]

I think we should retroactively trade Bailey and Votto for Joe Blanton. Cueto and Bruce for Bedard.

Let guys develop. They’ll have a way better idea of who to deal this time next year.

It doesn't work like that. If some of the top prospects fall back in 2023 then no other team is going to give up a big haul for them. You have to trade them at peak value or close to it. Being able to project who the keepers are before it becomes obvious to everybody else in MLB is where the real skill is at in trading prospects. The Reds are loaded with IF prospects and there's only 4 IF positions to play. It makes sense to use the surplus in a trade relatively soon. If Arroyo doesn't hit in 2023 then he'll be another Jose Torres, if McLain strikes out 200 times in AAA then he's not bringing back much of anything in a trade. They need to identify who the keepers are and be aggressive now before the shine comes off some of these guys.

The odds of all the Reds top prospects having a great 2023 season and increasing their value is unlikely.

[Kc61]

It doesn't work like that. If some of the top prospects fall back in 2023 then no other team is going to give up a big haul for them. You have to trade them at peak value or close to it. Being able to project who the keepers are before it becomes obvious to everybody else in MLB is where the real skill is at in trading prospects. The Reds are loaded with IF prospects and there's only 4 IF positions to play. It makes sense to use the surplus in a trade relatively soon. If Arroyo doesn't hit in 2023 then he'll be another Jose Torres, if McLain strikes out 200 times in AAA then he's not bringing back much of anything in a trade. They need to identify who the keepers are and be aggressive now before the shine comes off some of these guys.

The odds of all the Reds top prospects having a great 2023 season and increasing their value is unlikely.

You’re right but it’s more cost effective to wait the prospects out.

Why trade a prospect with 6 years of team control for a young veteran with 3 years of team control?

Maybe the day will come when Reds are willing to make that kind of trade. Maybe next year when the Moose and Votto contracts are up and the payroll is under $50 million. But not now.

[JCM11]

You’re right but it’s more cost effective to wait the prospects out.

Why trade a prospect with 6 years of team control for a young veteran with 3 years of team control?

Maybe the day will come when Reds are willing to make that kind of trade. Maybe next year when the Moose and Votto contracts are up and the payroll is under $50 million. But not now.

If the Reds trade any of their top 10 prospects I would want 4 years of control at minimum for the SP return. All the Marlins SP have that other than Lopez.