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Thread: Can we be competitive this year?

  1. #1
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    Can we be competitive this year?

    You know, I feel like we could be competitive this year, and it wouldn't take much in terms of payroll. Now I know this is a long shot and probably none of it will happen, but I think a few solid free agent signings and calling up De la Cruz to play short, and this team could actually be somewhat competitive this year, for reasonably cheap. Hear me out:

    Sign Trevor Bauer to a 1 year deal
    Sign Michael Wacha to a 1 year deal
    Sign Jurickson Profar to play the OF
    Call up De la Cruz after Barrero fails
    Call up Fernando Cruz for bullpen help

    Rotation:

    Nick Lodolo
    Hunter Greene
    Trevor Bauer
    Michael Wacha
    Graham Ashcraft

    Lineup:

    2B - India
    1B - Votto
    SS - De la Cruz
    C - Stephenson
    3B - Steer
    OF - Myers
    OF - Fraley
    OF - Profar
    DH - Senzel

    Bench - Newman, Lopez, Solak, Casali

    Bullpen:

    Diaz (CL), Antone, Santillian, Sims, Cruz, Kuhnel, Weaver (6th starter)

    Not bad, eh? And well within "budget"


    Other names that could help if Bauer and Profar cant/or be signed:

    Zack Greinke
    Adam Duvall

    What do you guys think?


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  3. #2
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    I think they won't sign any of those guys and they will lose 100 games. I do think adding a couple of starting pitchers would make them much more competitive and maybe De La Cruz can help this year. The line-up is filled with holes.

    and Fernado Cruz is a 33 year old minor league retread. I'm not sure why so many people are thinking he's some kind of savior. If he gets more than 0 innings this year, its probably a bad sign.
    Last edited by mth123; 01-15-2023 at 11:06 AM.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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  5. #3
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    I think 75ish wins is the Reds ceiling for this year. In order to get there they need at least the following:

    1) At least 400 innings from Greene Lodolo and Ashcraft. That would mean all 3 were healthy for good chunk of year.

    2) OF posts a cumulative 750 OPS. Requires solid years from Fraley and Myers, plus Friedl/Fairchild combining for 700 OPS.

    3) 300 combined innings under 5.00 ERA from Cessa, Overton, Weaver and Dunn.

    4) Healthy years from Antone and Santillan combining with Diaz to form good late inning trio. Farmer, Cruz, Sanmartin, Etc handle Middle relief.

    A lot of its but not unrealistic. With the above and some good contributions from EDLC, CES, McClain, etc this could be a fun, albeit still slightly losing year.

  6. #4
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    I think Antone, Santillan, and Diaz are key. If they are healthy that could be a pretty good back end of the bull pen. I wish they would sign a couple starting pitchers but don’t think they will.

  7. #5
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    That shipped sailed when they traded Castillo and Mahle then decided to do the bare minimum in free agency. Castillo, Mahle, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft is a playoff contending rotation. All they would have had to do was add a good bat or two this off season. As it stands now with all the top FA's already signed no they aren't going to compete, and will be lucky not to finish last in the NL Central.

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  9. #6
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    No.

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  11. #7
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    They could be a .500 team, but literally every prospect would have to hit Goldilocks-level development, and they'd have to have unheard-of levels of health.

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  13. #8
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    Margin too thin. But it's baseball, they'll screw up someone else's season

  14. #9
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    Quote Originally Posted by phlbilly View Post
    I think Antone, Santillan, and Diaz are key. If they are healthy that could be a pretty good back end of the bull pen. I wish they would sign a couple starting pitchers but don’t think they will.
    I actually think they could progress and become a pretty good back end of the pen as well. They won't have many leads to protect though.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  15. #10
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    I look for 70-75 wins but I do think it's been extremely frustrating watching the apparent lack of desire to compete from Castellini and the other owners (I don't blame Krall for it). I guess, too, I don't really understand the business side of things. With just a few FA signings of a bit higher quality, I think they could have improved the club quite a bit, and then who knows what might have happened when the season actually got going. And I'd think an improved club would have translated into higher gate revenues and the peripheral revenues that come with that--not to mention the increased good will etc. I thought one SP signing out of the Cueto, Wacha, Davies, Kluber, Miley, Smyly tier and one out of the next tier down, Archer, Bundy, Keuchel at this point in his career etc.(or a solid reliever that would have allowed Cessa to start)--together with a competent LH bat--would have pushed the team to 75-80 for a reasonable projection with the possibility of at least staying in the wild card race for a good part of the season. That could probably have been achieved for about a net 15 million if they'd have reduced the budget by the 2 million going to Senzel. And I'd have thought that expenditure recoupable in large part. But what do I know about ballclub revenues?

  16. #11
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    Quote Originally Posted by phlbilly View Post
    I think Antone, Santillan, and Diaz are key. If they are healthy that could be a pretty good back end of the bull pen. I wish they would sign a couple starting pitchers but don’t think they will.
    The back end of the pen could become lock down. Antone was as nasty as anyone when healthy. Diaz was last year. Santillian and Sims are serviceable at worst. Very good at best.

    I think people are sleeping on the rotation too. Lodolo pitched liked a genuine ace the second half last year. He actually put up an arguably better line than Castillo. Greene flashed generational talent in a small sample down the stretch. Ashcraft established himself as a middle of the rotation member. Cessa pitched well under the radar down the stretch. And Weaver’s peripherals show he may be better than excepted. Yes, they will need more innings and health. But the 4-5 spots don’t need to be lights out, and they don’t need all of the innings all at once. If 1-3 can stay reasonably healthy, the 4-5 just have to be stable and ok. And as innings go up, guys that will be in AAA need to take steps forward.

    I could see a path where the pitching is a strong point.

  17. #12
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    Ashcraft is going to have to miss more bats with the shift banned. He allowed 10.2 H/9 last year and if that number increases things will get pretty dicey. He has the arm to be a solid mid rotation guy, but adjustments need to be made to avoid more contact. Greene and Lodolo are positioned to be legit TOR guys, but they are unlikely(especially Lodolo) to pitch a full season in 2023. The most disappointing thing about the Reds not trying this off season is that these pitchers(along with Diaz) are going to burn another year of control on a lost season.

  18. #13
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    Lot of guys coming off injuries, Votto, TySteve, Senzel, Antone, Sims, Santillan. Some are question marks.

    Drury (hottest hitter last year), Castillo, Mahle no longer on team. Team’s most durable player, Farmer, gone.

    Few additions. Lot of young guys just starting out will be added over the season.

    At this stage I’m expecting Reds to be a 100 loss candidate again.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-15-2023 at 12:06 PM.

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  20. #14
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    The Reds are not going to be competitive this year.

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  22. #15
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    Re: Can we be competitive this year?

    The sad part of all this is I actually think the Reds could be a solid team this year. I don't see any scenario outside of a miracle that they contend for a world series, but with a few moves could they compete for one of the wild card spots and actually play meaningful baseball in August? I think so, and really it starts with the first two suggestions in the opening post. Signing two guys like Bauer/Wacha gives this team a legitimate rotation. It also gives this team a lot of flexibility in the bullpen. With those two moves I think both units would be average to above average.

    The big problem comes with the lineup, but there is hope. Votto, Stephenson, India were all players who had down 2022 seasons, for various reasons. While I expect none of them to to bee 600 at bat 900 OPS players I don't think it is unrealistic for all three to be more productive in 2023. Stephenson just needs to stay healthy, and more time between 1b and DH should significantly help. Votto I doubt comes close to his 2021 numbers, but is likely a safe bet to be better than 2022. Same with India, horrible season overall, but his 2nd half numbers show signs of life, including a .351 OBP which looked a little more like his rookie season.

    A lot of "ifs" on offense, however if you get the pitching you always have a chance. The Reds have a few really good pieces in their lineup, a few question marks/rebound candidates, and some young guns that could be ready by mid season.

    Even if 75% of those "ifs" go in the Reds favor I still dont expect them to contend with teams like the Dodgers, but man could this year be a lot of fun and allow this city to rally around a new core of young players as they start to arrive at the MLB level. I just don't have any faith in the Reds to even make an attempt at being entertaining.


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