RedsZone 2023 Top 40 Prospects

[Bourgeois Zee]

I agree that the Reds target high risk big power prospects but they have always done that. The difference is that Dunn, Bruce, Mesoraco all developed pitch recognition and patience in the minors, while the reds have not had a power hitter succeed for a while. With the current group, I don’t see where the reds are making progress (except for EDLC).

Nope. This is decidedly untrue.

Dunn was actually a high BA (.304 career), plus hit tool prospect (270 K in nearly 1500 PAs) who got screwed up when an MLB coach insisted he swing for the fences more. Bruce, too, was considered a 60 hit tool prospect with patience and a fairly low K rate (21 - 24% K rate through his stint in the minors). He K'ed far more as major league coaches got ahold of him (and largely screwed up his swing too). Mesoraco was an extremely low K guy in the minors-- that was a primary part of his appeal.

The decision to focus on drafting loud tools with K issues has been fairly recent-- Dick Williams forward. (And, I'd argue, perhaps Dick Williams only.)

And, again, the argument is that it only takes one. If EDLC develops enough to be a legitimate All-Star, that's worth the series of draft picks and acquisitions in a macro sense.

All of them had pitch recognition in the minors and didn't need to develop it.

[Betterread]

Nope. This is decidedly untrue.

Dunn was actually a high BA (.304 career), plus hit tool prospect (270 K in nearly 1500 PAs) who got screwed up when an MLB coach insisted he swing for the fences more. Bruce, too, was considered a 60 hit tool prospect with patience and a fairly low K rate (21 - 24% K rate through his stint in the minors). He K'ed far more as major league coaches got ahold of him (and largely screwed up his swing too). Mesoraco was an extremely low K guy in the minors-- that was a primary part of his appeal.

The decision to focus on drafting loud tools with K issues has been fairly recent-- Dick Williams forward. (And, I'd argue, perhaps Dick Williams only.)

And, again, the argument is that it only takes one. If EDLC develops enough to be a legitimate All-Star, that's worth the series of draft picks and acquisitions in a macro sense.

All of them had pitch recognition in the minors and didn't need to develop it.

My memory was wrong about Dunn in the minors, his patience was in place before the Reds and his K problems only emerged as a MLer. But Bruce had roughly as many Ks as games played and didn’t earn over 50 walks his first three yrs (he could hit from the start though) and Mesoraco was not as prolific a whiffer, but he had about as many Ks as hits and bad patience in his first three years (.311 OBP) of the minors before he improved. So you were untrue as well. You make as many mistakes as anyone else.
The key point is that all three reached their power potential and the Reds have had those successes recently.
I agree that if EDLC develops his potential into ML production, it will be worth the effort.

[Bourgeois Zee]

My memory was wrong about Dunn in the minors, his patience was in place before the Reds and his K problems only emerged as a MLer. But Bruce had roughly as many Ks as games played and didn’t earn over 50 walks his first three yrs (he could hit from the start though) and Mesoraco was not as prolific a whiffer, but he had about as many Ks as hits and bad patience in his first three years (.311 OBP) of the minors before he improved. So you were untrue as well. You make as many mistakes as anyone else.
The key point is that all three reached their power potential and the Reds have had those successes recently.
I agree that if EDLC develops his potential into ML production, it will be worth the effort.

I didn't make the claim that Mesoraco had patience. I said he was an extremely low K guy in the minors-- which he was.

In short, that's not a mistake on my part-- it is, otoh, an error in reading comprehension on yours.

[mth123]

Nope. This is decidedly untrue.

Dunn was actually a high BA (.304 career), plus hit tool prospect (270 K in nearly 1500 PAs) who got screwed up when an MLB coach insisted he swing for the fences more. Bruce, too, was considered a 60 hit tool prospect with patience and a fairly low K rate (21 - 24% K rate through his stint in the minors). He K'ed far more as major league coaches got ahold of him (and largely screwed up his swing too). Mesoraco was an extremely low K guy in the minors-- that was a primary part of his appeal.

The decision to focus on drafting loud tools with K issues has been fairly recent-- Dick Williams forward. (And, I'd argue, perhaps Dick Williams only.)

And, again, the argument is that it only takes one. If EDLC develops enough to be a legitimate All-Star, that's worth the series of draft picks and acquisitions in a macro sense.

All of them had pitch recognition in the minors and didn't need to develop it.

Jim Lefebvre. I wonder what Dunn might have become if they'd left him alone.

[MikeS21]

Jim Lefebvre. I wonder what Dunn might have become if they'd left him alone.

Is this the same Jim Lefebvre who used to run a hitting school down in Florida?

[RED VAN HOT]

I always thought they messed up Bruce as well. When he came up, he hit to all fields. The Reds turned him into a decidedly pull hitter to take advantage of his power.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I always thought they messed up Bruce as well. When he came up, he hit to all fields. The Reds turned him into a decidedly pull hitter to take advantage of his power.

Kearns too, fwiw.

[mth123]

Is this the same Jim Lefebvre who used to run a hitting school down in Florida?

Not sure. The former Dodger infielder from the 60s.

- - - Updated - - -

I always thought they messed up Bruce as well. When he came up, he hit to all fields. The Reds turned him into a decidedly pull hitter to take advantage of his power.

GABP Philosophy. They built the park for LH power with Griffey looking like a potential all time HR champ and kept that Philosophy (still to this day I think).