RedsZone 2023 Top 40 Prospects

[camisadelgolf]

I wouldn’t have had Hendrick in my top 40. He has a 40% K rate. He has a long way to go to being a major leaguer. I also think Hinds is way to high. I probably would have had him 30-40. I would have had Hajjar around 25. Jay Allen and Tyler Callihan would have been a little lower Allen probably around 20, Callihan, im not sure would have been in my top 40. It would have been close.

I'm probably a little higher on Hendrick than a lot of others even though I was almost ready to give up on him. However his last month of the season was highly encouraging, so there's still hope.

[podgejeff_]

I'll bite on who should have made the list. Logan Tanner. Good defense and a strong arm should play well in MLB when the running game becomes more prominent. He should make a satisfactory backup catcher at the big league level, primary if he OPS 700. I think RZ sees him as a continuation of the Okey and Nelson overdrafts and that he will struggle to OPS 600. It's too soon to tell if this is the case. Cade Hunter is in the top 40 because he showed some offensive skills. Still, the Reds took Tanner several rounds before Hunter.

I would agree with everything you said.

As for Duno, I'd put him in the top 15 personally. I was tempted to throw him in or a vote for him to add him but I'm ok with him debuting on the 2024 RedsZone top prospects list.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I have also wondered about the K rates of several players. K rates are likely to increase when players see ML sliders and changeups. Do the Reds emphasize selling out for power in the low minors and using AAA to improve plate discipline? Hendrick, Hinds, Cerda, McGarry, even EDLC are likely to have a tough adjustment.

I believe their thinking is two-fold on the K issue:

1. All it takes is one guy who suddenly fixes his K issues, and the draft/ acquisition strategy looks genius. And despite grousing to the contrary, swing changes, experience, and development do allow prospects to fix their K issues often enough that this isn't a prayer.

2. High K rates are not the death knell to player development that they were even 15 years ago. A 30% K rate can still mean a productive player-- especially if he's really solid at the softer skills in the game.

I'm not a high K, big power guy-- I much prefer big-time hit tool, big patience guys. But that was their thinking, I suspect, during the Dick Williams era.

[mth123]

I think the high K rates are rampant all over baseball, not just in Cincinnati. Fact is, if players want to become the $100 Millionaire level guys, they need to be ace pitchers with a lot of K's or hit home runs, so players sell out for power. This is true of both pitchers, who go all out for shorter outings now and put so much torque on their arms snapping off breaking balls that injuries are through the roof; and hitters who create so much wind swinging and missing that they should put a wind farm right next to the ballpark. It would solve most of America's energy problems.

The result of both of those things is K's going through the roof.

[*BaseClogger*]

The other aspect of the high-K guys being discussed in this thread is most of them are legit athletes with strong arms, can run, play defense, etc. That helps insulate their floor and reduces the boom/bust nature a little.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think the high K rates are rampant all over baseball, not just in Cincinnati. Fact is, if players want to become the $100 Millionaire level guys, they need to be ace pitchers with a lot of K's or hit home runs, so players sell out for power. This is true of both pitchers, who go all out for shorter outings now and put so much torque on their arms snapping off breaking balls that injuries are through the roof; and hitters who create so much wind swinging and missing that they should put a wind farm right next to the ballpark. It would solve most of America's energy problems.

The result of both of those things is K's going through the roof.

It's not just monetary-- the best pitchers are those who have big K totals. The best hitters are those who slug lots of HR. BA is not as important as OBP or SLG. In order to help your team win, then, you're going to swing from the heels.

[mth123]

It's not just monetary-- the best pitchers are those who have big K totals. The best hitters are those who slug lots of HR. BA is not as important as OBP or SLG. In order to help your team win, then, you're going to swing from the heels.

Maybe. For one game, a guy with a 3 ERA who can give you five innings is probably a great pitcher to have going. Over a season, I'd rather have the guy who can provide 225 Innings at 4 ERA than a guy who gives 150 innings at 3 ERA. The emphasis on K's have eliminated that second guy.

I agree more with what you say about the hitter's side of the argument, but guys like Aristedes Aquino are not more valuable than guys like TJ Friedl.

Still, I think teh monetary reasons are why the players do it. Their concern is maximizing their salary.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Maybe. For one game, a guy with a 3 ERA who can give you five innings is probably a great pitcher to have going. Over a season, I'd rather have the guy who can provide 225 Innings at 4 ERA than a guy who gives 150 innings at 3 ERA. The emphasis on K's have eliminated that second guy.

I agree more with what you say about the hitter's side of the argument, but guys like Aristedes Aquino are not more valuable than guys like TJ Friedl.

Still, I think teh monetary reasons are why the players do it. Their concern is maximizing their salary.

That's one reason. It's not the primary reason. (Or at least we can't say that.) Regardless, it's the right decision. Despite what you might believe, power pitchers and power hitters are inherently more successful and tied to winning.

[RustyJ]

All it takes is one guy who suddenly fixes his K issues, and the draft/ acquisition strategy looks genius. And despite grousing to the contrary, swing changes, experience, and development do allow prospects to fix their K issues often enough that this isn't a prayer.

I think the idea that contact and plate discipline are uniquely malleable persists just because you can’t directly and physically observe them like you can power. Siani unlocking 25hr power is just as likely as Hendrick fixing his K issues IMO.

[Betterread]

Maybe. For one game, a guy with a 3 ERA who can give you five innings is probably a great pitcher to have going. Over a season, I'd rather have the guy who can provide 225 Innings at 4 ERA than a guy who gives 150 innings at 3 ERA. The emphasis on K's have eliminated that second guy.

I agree more with what you say about the hitter's side of the argument, but guys like Aristedes Aquino are not more valuable than guys like TJ Friedl.

Still, I think teh monetary reasons are why the players do it. Their concern is maximizing their salary.

Good points. Only 8 major leaguers pitched more than 200 Innings, and only one over 205. Sandy Alcantara led the majors with 228.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think the idea that contact and plate discipline are uniquely malleable persists just because you can’t directly and physically observe them like you can power. Siani unlocking 25hr power is just as likely as Hendrick fixing his K issues IMO.

Right. That, too, is a swing change.

They happen often enough for the gamble to fix swings, planes, and/or the propensity to chase pitches (or not) makes some sense.

[Kc61]

Good points. Only 8 major leaguers pitched more than 200 Innings, and only one over 205. Sandy Alcantara led the majors with 228.

In key September games or playoffs, you need impact pitching. At that point, innings coverage becomes secondary. A 3.00 pitcher for five innings is valuable in that setting, backed by a good bullpen.

Different for the regular season generally, when innings coverage can save a staff. Getting through 162 games is a different consideration.

[Betterread]

I believe their thinking is two-fold on the K issue:

1. All it takes is one guy who suddenly fixes his K issues, and the draft/ acquisition strategy looks genius. And despite grousing to the contrary, swing changes, experience, and development do allow prospects to fix their K issues often enough that this isn't a prayer.

2. High K rates are not the death knell to player development that they were even 15 years ago. A 30% K rate can still mean a productive player-- especially if he's really solid at the softer skills in the game.

I'm not a high K, big power guy-- I much prefer big-time hit tool, big patience guys. But that was their thinking, I suspect, during the Dick Williams era.

This oversimplification is meaningless. There are so many factors that go into developing young hitters to make contact and to minimize swing and misses. Pre-pitch setup, swing path, swing mechanics, how hands and wrists are inoporated into the swing (like golf there are many things to improve an maintain). And then there is predicting the path of the thrown ball. Many skills go into that ability or failure.
Each young player has a unique set of these abilities. I wish it was clearer to see what abilities the Reds are having success teaching.

[Bourgeois Zee]

This oversimplification is meaningless. There are so many factors that go into developing young hitters to make contact and to minimize swing and misses. Pre-pitch setup, swing path, swing mechanics, how hands and wrists are inoporated into the swing (like golf there are many things to improve an maintain). And then there is predicting the path of the thrown ball. Many skills go into that ability or failure.
Each young player has a unique set of these abilities. I wish it was clearer to see what abilities the Reds are having success teaching.

Nope.

Again, the philosophy the Reds seem to have worked under is that a high K prospect who has other loud tools could be a productive major league player. In today's game, that makes sense. The secondary aspect of this development theory is that they might end up with an All-Star/ difference-maker (where one wasn't obviously available) if a high K prospect learns better pitch recognition.

They've done this with Hinds, Cerda, EDLC, Hendrick, Mat Nelson, Jose Torres, and others offensively. They've done largely the same thing with pitching, with Joe Boyle, Luis Mey, and a whole host of relief prospects-- that propensity has already been successful in developing Alexis Diaz, Graham Ashcraft, and a couple others.

[Betterread]

Nope.

Again, the philosophy the Reds seem to have worked under is that a high K prospect who has other loud tools could be a productive major league player. In today's game, that makes sense. The secondary aspect of this development theory is that they might end up with an All-Star/ difference-maker (where one wasn't obviously available) if a high K prospect learns better pitch recognition.

They've done this with Hinds, Cerda, EDLC, Hendrick, Mat Nelson, Jose Torres, and others offensively. They've done largely the same thing with pitching, with Joe Boyle, Luis Mey, and a whole host of relief prospects-- that propensity has already been successful in developing Alexis Diaz, Graham Ashcraft, and a couple others.

I agree that the Reds target high risk big power prospects but they have always done that. The difference is that Dunn, Bruce, Mesoraco all developed pitch recognition and patience in the minors, while the reds have not had a power hitter succeed for a while. With the current group, I don’t see where the reds are making progress (except for EDLC).