RedsZone's 2023 BBWAA HOF Ballot Vote

[Kinsm]

On January 24th, the BBWAA will announce the results of its 2023 Hall of Fame balloting. Any electees will be inducted on Sunday, July 23rd, at 1:30 p.m. at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown.

Any candidate who receives votes on 75 percent of all ballots cast will earn election to the Hall of Fame. Those who receive fewer than 5 percent of all ballots cast (or whom have been on the ballot for 10 years) will fall off next years' ballot.

Fourteen former players are returning to the 2023 BBWAA ballot after receiving at least five percent of the overall vote in 2022:

Scott Rolen
Todd Helton
Billy Wagner
Andruw Jones
Gary Sheffield
Alex Rodriguez
Jeff Kent
Manny Ramirez
Omar Vizquel
Andy Pettitte
Jimmy Rollins
Bobby Abreu
Mark Buehrle
Torii Hunter

^This will be Jeff Kent's 10th and final appearance on the ballot.

In addition, fourteen players will be making their BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot debut in 2023:
(Players who last played in the majors during the 2017 season and have 10 years or more of MLB service accumulated)

Bronson Arroyo
Carlos Beltran
Matt Cain
R.A. Dickey
Jacoby Ellsbury
Andre Ethier
J.J. Hardy
John Lackey
Mike Napoli
Jhonny Peralta
Francisco Rodriguez
Huston Street
Jered Weaver
Jayson Werth

^For reference, an additional 12 players qualified for the vote but failed to make the final ballot. They were: Aaron Hill, Erick Aybar, Carlos Ruiz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joaquin Benoit, Stephen Drew, Adam Lind, Joe Blanton, Glen Perkins, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Qualls, and Jason Grilli.

***VOTE FOR A MAXIMUM TEN PLAYERS***




The Hall of Fame will announce the results on Tuesday, January 26th, with live coverage on MLB Network beginning at 9 a.m. ET (the actual results will be announced at 6 p.m. ET)

[Kinsm]

Name	YoB	Yrs	WAR	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Bobby Abreu	4th	18	60.2	2425	8480	1453	2470	288	1363	400	1476	.291	.395	.475	.870	128
Carlos Beltran	1st	20	70.1	2586	9768	1582	2725	435	1587	312	1084	.279	.350	.486	.837	119
Jacoby Ellsbury	1st	11	31.2	1235	4846	749	1376	104	512	343	399	.284	.342	.417	.760	103
Andre Ethier	1st	12	21.5	1455	4800	641	1367	162	687	29	519	.285	.359	.463	.822	122
J.J. Hardy	1st	13	28.1	1561	5805	718	1488	188	688	8	411	.256	.305	.408	.714	91
Todd Helton	5th	17	61.8	2247	7962	1401	2519	369	1406	37	1335	.316	.414	.539	.953	133
Torii Hunter	3rd	19	50.7	2372	8857	1296	2452	353	1391	195	661	.277	.331	.461	.793	110
Andruw Jones	6th	17	62.7	2196	7599	1204	1933	434	1289	152	891	.254	.337	.486	.823	111
Jeff Kent	10th	17	55.4	2298	8498	1320	2461	377	1518	94	801	.290	.356	.500	.855	123
Mike Napoli	1st	12	26.3	1392	4572	697	1125	267	744	39	650	.246	.346	.475	.821	117
Jhonny Peralta	1st	15	30.4	1798	6599	841	1761	202	873	17	606	.267	.329	.423	.752	102
Manny Ramirez	7th	19	69.3	2302	8244	1544	2574	555	1831	38	1329	.312	.411	.585	.996	154
Alex Rodriguez	2nd	22	117.6	2784	10566	2021	3115	696	2086	329	1338	.295	.380	.550	.930	140
Scott Rolen	6th	17	70.1	2038	7398	1211	2077	316	1287	118	899	.281	.364	.490	.855	122
Jimmy Rollins	2nd	17	47.6	2275	9294	1421	2455	231	936	470	813	.264	.324	.418	.743	95
Gary Sheffield	9th	22	60.5	2576	9217	1636	2689	509	1676	253	1475	.292	.393	.514	.907	140
Omar Vizquel	6th	24	45.6	2968	10586	1445	2877	80	951	404	1028	.272	.336	.352	.688	82
Jayson Werth	1st	15	29.2	1583	5484	883	1465	229	799	132	764	.267	.360	.455	.816	117

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2023.

Name	YoB	Yrs	WAR	W	L	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	G	GS	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO
Bronson Arroyo	1st	16	23.4	148	137	4.28	101	1.301	419	383	1	2435.2	2507	347	661	1571
Mark Buehrle	3rd	16	59.1	214	160	3.81	117	1.281	518	493	0	3283.1	3472	361	734	1870
Matt Cain	1st	13	29.1	104	118	3.68	108	1.228	342	331	0	2085.2	1849	211	712	1694
R.A. Dickey	1st	15	23.7	120	118	4.04	103	1.300	400	300	2	2073.2	2033	264	663	1477
John Lackey	1st	15	37.3	188	147	3.92	110	1.295	448	446	0	2840.1	2862	319	815	2294
Andy Pettitte	5th	18	60.2	256	153	3.85	117	1.351	531	521	0	3316.0	3448	288	1031	2448
Francisco Rodriguez	1st	16	24.2	52	53	2.86	148	1.155	948	0	437	976.0	738	98	389	1142
Huston Street	1st	13	14.5	42	34	2.95	141	1.066	668	0	324	680.0	542	70	183	665
Billy Wagner	8th	16	27.7	47	40	2.31	187	0.998	853	0	422	903.0	601	82	300	1196
Jered Weaver	1st	12	34.6	150	98	3.63	111	1.191	331	331	0	2067.1	1912	262	551	1621

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/19/2023.

[Kinsm]

Blast from the past, if you're interested in looking at previous RedsZone HOF ballot results...

2022 https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...OF-Ballot-Vote

2021 https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...OF-Ballot-Vote

2020 https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...OF-Ballot-Vote

2019 https://www.redszone.com/forums/show...OF-Ballot-Vote

[Kinsm]

Based on the known votes thus far, we know that only 8 of the 28 players even have a shot this year of hitting 75% - the other 20 have already been eliminated.

Rolen, Helton, and Wagner have the best chance of squeaking past 75%.
Sheffield, Jones, Beltran, Kent, and ARod are still mathematically possible yet not probable.
The rest have no chance of reaching 75% this year.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...OiVOHV1SzKLAR0

[Kinsm]

Based on the known votes thus far, we know that only 8 of the 28 players even have a shot this year of hitting 75% - the other 20 have already been eliminated.

Rolen, Helton, and Wagner have the best chance of squeaking past 75%.
Sheffield, Jones, Beltran, Kent, and ARod are still mathematically possible yet not probable.
The rest have no chance of reaching 75% this year.

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...OiVOHV1SzKLAR0

Delving into the tracker a little more...

With close to 50% of the actual writer's ballots being pre-published:

ARod has also been mathematically eliminated from reaching 75% this year, leaving just 7 of the 28 possible
Kent, in his 10th and final ballot, is close to being eliminated - he'll have to hope for a future vets committee to put him in if he doesn't get in this year
Sheffield might be joining Kent in the vets committee predicament in 12 months time, as 2024 will be his 10th and final chance, and though he's gaining ground it doesn't look like it'll be enough

Aside from Beltran, it appears as though only KRod will join him as 1st time eligible players to remain on the ballot next time around

Rolen needs to pick up about 50 votes this winter to be elected, he's picked up only 11 net votes thus far
Helton and Wagner need to pick about 90 and 95 votes respectively, they've picked up about 30 net votes each thus far

If the remaining voters vote similarly to those who have already let their votes be known Rolen, Helton and Wagner would finish about 30 votes shy of induction this winter. Keep in mind, in year's past the voters who don't pre-publish typically vote more harshly than those who do.

We could potentially see no one joining Fred McGriff a the induction ceremony this summer, though we could also see a large group being inducted in 2024.

[kheidg-]

Wagner probably will get in eventually. I could see this year being nobody.

[Kinsm]

This poll will lock in approximately 24 hours!!!

[getfoul]

It’s too bad Rolen and Helton may come up just a few votes short. I wish they could find a process where every Hall of Fame weekend inducts three players each year. Most of these guys are getting in eventually, so let’s cut to the chase and get more guys in before they’re old men.

[Kingspoint]

Beltran: One of only two players with a 300/400/600 post-season slash line in his career. the other is The Babe.

I wasn't paying any attention to the Astros' scandal, so I have no opinion about that.

- - - Updated - - -

I voted for only 4 players and Rolen and Helton were easy players not to vote for. The HOF isn't just about piling up stats.

[CySeymour]

Beltran: One of only two players with a 300/400/600 post-season slash line in his career. the other is The Babe.

I wasn't paying any attention to the Astros' scandal, so I have no opinion about that.

- - - Updated - - -

I voted for only 4 players and Rolen and Helton were easy players not to vote for. The HOF isn't just about piling up stats.

How was Rolen someone who was "piling on stats?"

[Kingspoint]

How was Rolen someone who was "piling on stats?"

From many years of playing. He's never been the best at his position. For me, a Hall-of-Famer needs to be the best at his position for at least five seasons, not an All-Star for a long time.

[CySeymour]

From many years of playing. He's never been the best at his position. For me, a Hall-of-Famer needs to be the best at his position for at least five seasons, not an All-Star for a long time.

I think that is an ok thumbnail, but not an absolute. For instance, Mickey Mantle wasn't as great as Willie Mays, but was still a Hall of Fame level player. You wouldn't leave Clemente and Kaline out of the HOF just because they played the same position in the same era as Hank Aaron.

[Coopdaddy67]

From many years of playing. He's never been the best at his position. For me, a Hall-of-Famer needs to be the best at his position for at least five seasons, not an All-Star for a long time.

Not exactly easy to be the best at your position for FIVE YEARS when you're being compared to Chipper Jones, Adrian Beltre and Alex Rodriguez...

Would you have voted for Derek Jeter? He wouldn't meet your criteria.

[mth123]

If you could draw a line and say the guys above are Hall of Famers and the guys below are not, this list has a lot of guys who seem to be straddling that line. Helton, Rolen and Pettitte are all examples of guys who I think are right on that line. For me personally, none of these guys seem like Hall of Famers, but when I hear arguments in favor, there is sound logic to them. I voted for Helton and Rolen. I did not vote for Pettitte. Same is true for Kent, Beltran, Jones and Rollins. I voted for all of them.

The guys I think are no doubters on this list probably won't get in. A-Rod, Sheffield and Manny should get in, but if guys like Bonds and Clemens were kept out by the antiquated thinking of voters, these guys certainly will be kept out as well.

[Coopdaddy67]

I went with Abreu, Helton, Jones, Kent, Rolen and Wagner.

Abreu was my hardest decision. I think he's one of the most underappreciated players of his era. Great HR/SB combo along with the ability to get on base.