I agree with mth that 2024 for Reds contention is a pipe dream (my words, not his).
Even if they could come up with a few more good front line players by then, the depth won’t be there. It would take incredibly good luck to approach contention by then.
I don’t think Reds will even try. They’ll make a few additions when the payroll gets low, but mostly will continue to rely on prospect development. Which is a slow, painstaking process.
Completely disagree. The 2008 team "only" lost 88 games, not 100
2008 team had a respectable rotation (Fogg sucked, but they had Homer to backfill)
2008 team had 6 solid regular position players, plus Freel and David Ross.
After Cordoro, the 2008 bullpen was kind of a mess, but still better than the 2022 team.
The biggest factor? Reds' ownership actually wanted to improve the team after 2008. They don't want to improve the team for 2023.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
You do realize that the 2010 team that became competitive hit the lottery twice. They drafted Mike Leake in 2009 and he went directly to the big leagues as a competent starter to supplement the rotation (was the Ace for the first 2 months) and when the pitching was still struggling they brought-up Travis Wood who pitched like a #2 or 3 starter for 102 innings in the second half of 2010. So, yes, as I said, they have a lottery ticket's chance, just like the lottery the 2010 team hit.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I said almost as terrible, lol/
In 2008, Volquez was the only starter who had a ERA+ over 100. Harang was on his downhill decline, Cueto was still figuring out how to pitch, and Arroyo had a bad year. This current rotation projects to be better than that one.
You are correct the hitters were better, but the defense was terrible. Keppinger at SS, EE at 3B, Dunn and an aging Griffey in the corner OF spots. Corey Patterson was the CF! The positions players in 2008 were better no doubt, but it was an ugly team, full of holes.
You could look at the 2008 team and think that it was miles away from contending too.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Old school 1983 (01-22-2023),REDREAD (01-21-2023)
Agree with all this, but I don’t think the situation is forever hopeless. Over several years, if they keep feeding the farm system, good players will emerge and the team will progress. They’ll even spend, to an extent, if they start to taste winning and perhaps better attendance.
It may turn out too little, too late, but I do think at some point they’ll try harder for short-term success.
Old school 1983 (01-22-2023),REDREAD (01-21-2023)
Second reply to the same quote.
The key point to the 2008 comparison is that only 5 meaningful players on that team ended up being meaningful players on the 2010 playoff team: Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Arroyo and Cueto. 7 if you count Janish and Hanigan. 9 if you count Harang and Volquez who were not full time and were both not very good in 2010.
Rebulding teams have high turnover rates, hence the term “rebuilding.” This is common throughout baseball. I am not saying it will happen in 2024, but it definitely is possible.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I have often wondered how long a rebuilding should take, even if it mostly goes well. If you trade established players for some prospects in Year 1, and some more in Year 2, how long will it take to have the MLB team together to go for the pennant? I remember that even Cueto and Castillo took several years to get established after they got to the majors. It seems like a hopeful to 3 to 4 years is more likely 6 to 7, and nearly a Lost Decade. Rebuilding just doesn’t seem to add up to me.
REDREAD (01-21-2023),Wonderful Monds (01-22-2023)
Never gonna happen. India, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft will all be well into salary arbitration by that point. No way in hell The Reds pay them.
That’s why this style of team building just doesn’t work. Unless you have a slew of All-Stars come up and all get really good at once, you’re eventually gonna have to pay some people and it’s pretty obvious that The Reds don’t ever intend to do that again.
Just keep cashing those TV and revenue sharing checks while occasionally crapping on the fans in front of a microphone.
Bob Sheed (01-22-2023),LeatherPants (01-21-2023),REDREAD (01-21-2023)
It feels pretty hopeless right now, but let’s play some games and see what happens.
Mostly because, what the hell else are we going to do.
She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning
MikeS21 (01-22-2023),Ron Madden (01-23-2023)
But the timeline wouldn't have been as fast without those unusual circumstances. Maybe they'll draft somebody this year that will be the missing piece to next year's rotation. If they do, they have a better chance. If you can pitch, you always have a chance to win. Right now the hitting needs to come fast and I'm skeptical that enough pitching will ever come. Three starters and a couple relievers isn't even close to enough.
Normally, they would draft a pitcher who would come in 3 or 4 years, which is more the timeline I see happening. If Mike Leake would have taken the normal timeline, 2010 would not have been a winning year. 2011 was terrible, so that would be the same timeline I'm suggesting now.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Revering4Blue (01-21-2023)
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
mth123 (01-21-2023),NC Reds (01-21-2023),REDREAD (01-22-2023),The Operator (01-22-2023),Wonderful Monds (01-22-2023)
The Reds are doing pretty much what the Brewers did, sold off their old players, all the players that would not be around by 2024. The big difference is that the Brewers have always had a deeper solid core, a deeper organization, so when they sold off the older players, they still had a decent team to build around.
The Reds, thanks to poorly handling previous tear down, had almost nothing left after they traded away their older players. I think Krall’s plan to start building up that deeper core, which takes time, which means some tough years at the beginning.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
You’re probably right, but despite myself, I’m still looking forward to seeing pitchers and catchers report for spring training in a couple of three weeks.
It doesn’t matter that the team stinks to high heaven. I have lived through some pretty bad teams over the last forty plus years, and I still look forward to Reds baseball. And I am going to enjoy watching the minor league teams as well. Frustrating or not, I still will be glued to all things Reds once players report to Arizona. I will probably be done with them by the All-Star break, but Spring Training fever is already in my system.
Last edited by MikeS21; 01-22-2023 at 07:03 AM.
“I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane
“We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn
757690 (01-22-2023),goreds2 (01-22-2023),Ron Madden (01-23-2023)
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