Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 74

Thread: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

  1. #31
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2021
    Posts
    662

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    fwiw, I am probably 4-5 years away from being the first person to land on Mars...
    Been there, done that already.


  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,392

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    I agree with mth that 2024 for Reds contention is a pipe dream (my words, not his).

    Even if they could come up with a few more good front line players by then, the depth won’t be there. It would take incredibly good luck to approach contention by then.

    I don’t think Reds will even try. They’ll make a few additions when the payroll gets low, but mostly will continue to rely on prospect development. Which is a slow, painstaking process.

  4. Likes:

    mth123 (01-21-2023),REDREAD (01-21-2023)

  5. #33
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    ohio
    Posts
    29,254

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It will take a huge effort, I agree. But the 2008 team was almost as terrible as this team, and they became competitive in 2 years. You can find similar situations from other rebuilding teams throughout MLB history. Rebuilding teams always look miles away from contending, and then bam, suddenly they are competitive.
    Completely disagree. The 2008 team "only" lost 88 games, not 100
    2008 team had a respectable rotation (Fogg sucked, but they had Homer to backfill)
    2008 team had 6 solid regular position players, plus Freel and David Ross.
    After Cordoro, the 2008 bullpen was kind of a mess, but still better than the 2022 team.

    The biggest factor? Reds' ownership actually wanted to improve the team after 2008. They don't want to improve the team for 2023.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  6. #34
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    31,935

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It will take a huge effort, I agree. But the 2008 team was almost as terrible as this team, and they became competitive in 2 years. You can find similar situations from other rebuilding teams throughout MLB history. Rebuilding teams always look miles away from contending, and then bam, suddenly they are competitive.
    You do realize that the 2010 team that became competitive hit the lottery twice. They drafted Mike Leake in 2009 and he went directly to the big leagues as a competent starter to supplement the rotation (was the Ace for the first 2 months) and when the pitching was still struggling they brought-up Travis Wood who pitched like a #2 or 3 starter for 102 innings in the second half of 2010. So, yes, as I said, they have a lottery ticket's chance, just like the lottery the 2010 team hit.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  7. #35
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    33,292

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Completely disagree. The 2008 team "only" lost 88 games, not 100
    2008 team had a respectable rotation (Fogg sucked, but they had Homer to backfill)
    2008 team had 6 solid regular position players, plus Freel and David Ross.
    After Cordoro, the 2008 bullpen was kind of a mess, but still better than the 2022 team.

    The biggest factor? Reds' ownership actually wanted to improve the team after 2008. They don't want to improve the team for 2023.
    I said almost as terrible, lol/

    In 2008, Volquez was the only starter who had a ERA+ over 100. Harang was on his downhill decline, Cueto was still figuring out how to pitch, and Arroyo had a bad year. This current rotation projects to be better than that one.

    You are correct the hitters were better, but the defense was terrible. Keppinger at SS, EE at 3B, Dunn and an aging Griffey in the corner OF spots. Corey Patterson was the CF! The positions players in 2008 were better no doubt, but it was an ugly team, full of holes.

    You could look at the 2008 team and think that it was miles away from contending too.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  8. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (01-22-2023),REDREAD (01-21-2023)

  9. #36
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,392

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Completely disagree. The 2008 team "only" lost 88 games, not 100
    2008 team had a respectable rotation (Fogg sucked, but they had Homer to backfill)
    2008 team had 6 solid regular position players, plus Freel and David Ross.
    After Cordoro, the 2008 bullpen was kind of a mess, but still better than the 2022 team.

    The biggest factor? Reds' ownership actually wanted to improve the team after 2008. They don't want to improve the team for 2023.
    Agree with all this, but I don’t think the situation is forever hopeless. Over several years, if they keep feeding the farm system, good players will emerge and the team will progress. They’ll even spend, to an extent, if they start to taste winning and perhaps better attendance.

    It may turn out too little, too late, but I do think at some point they’ll try harder for short-term success.

  10. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (01-22-2023),REDREAD (01-21-2023)

  11. #37
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    33,292

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    You do realize that the 2010 team that became competitive hit the lottery twice. They drafted Mike Leake in 2009 and he went directly to the big leagues as a competent starter to supplement the rotation (was the Ace for the first 2 months) and when the pitching was still struggling they brought-up Travis Wood who pitched like a #2 or 3 starter for 102 innings in the second half of 2010. So, yes, as I said, they have a lottery ticket's chance, just like the lottery the 2010 team hit.
    Second reply to the same quote.

    The key point to the 2008 comparison is that only 5 meaningful players on that team ended up being meaningful players on the 2010 playoff team: Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Arroyo and Cueto. 7 if you count Janish and Hanigan. 9 if you count Harang and Volquez who were not full time and were both not very good in 2010.

    Rebulding teams have high turnover rates, hence the term “rebuilding.” This is common throughout baseball. I am not saying it will happen in 2024, but it definitely is possible.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  12. #38
    Haunted by walks
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    9,933

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    I have often wondered how long a rebuilding should take, even if it mostly goes well. If you trade established players for some prospects in Year 1, and some more in Year 2, how long will it take to have the MLB team together to go for the pennant? I remember that even Cueto and Castillo took several years to get established after they got to the majors. It seems like a hopeful to 3 to 4 years is more likely 6 to 7, and nearly a Lost Decade. Rebuilding just doesn’t seem to add up to me.

  13. Likes:

    REDREAD (01-21-2023),Wonderful Monds (01-22-2023)

  14. #39
    Moderator The Operator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Del Davis Tree Farm
    Posts
    8,475

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I figure the Reds are shooting to contend in 2026 - meaning the second half of this decade. For several years in that general period.

    2023-24 for development and building, 2025 to get around .500, and then 2026 to emerge.
    Never gonna happen. India, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft will all be well into salary arbitration by that point. No way in hell The Reds pay them.

    That’s why this style of team building just doesn’t work. Unless you have a slew of All-Stars come up and all get really good at once, you’re eventually gonna have to pay some people and it’s pretty obvious that The Reds don’t ever intend to do that again.

    Just keep cashing those TV and revenue sharing checks while occasionally crapping on the fans in front of a microphone.
    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Don't worry. I'd say the game threads are about league average.
    Phil Castellini puts the FUN in Trust Fund.

  15. Likes:

    Bob Sheed (01-22-2023),LeatherPants (01-21-2023),REDREAD (01-21-2023)

  16. #40
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Mason, OH
    Posts
    18,227

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    It feels pretty hopeless right now, but let’s play some games and see what happens.

    Mostly because, what the hell else are we going to do.
    She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning

  17. Likes:

    MikeS21 (01-22-2023),Ron Madden (01-23-2023)

  18. #41
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    31,935

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Second reply to the same quote.

    The key point to the 2008 comparison is that only 5 meaningful players on that team ended up being meaningful players on the 2010 playoff team: Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Arroyo and Cueto. 7 if you count Janish and Hanigan. 9 if you count Harang and Volquez who were not full time and were both not very good in 2010.

    Rebulding teams have high turnover rates, hence the term “rebuilding.” This is common throughout baseball. I am not saying it will happen in 2024, but it definitely is possible.
    But the timeline wouldn't have been as fast without those unusual circumstances. Maybe they'll draft somebody this year that will be the missing piece to next year's rotation. If they do, they have a better chance. If you can pitch, you always have a chance to win. Right now the hitting needs to come fast and I'm skeptical that enough pitching will ever come. Three starters and a couple relievers isn't even close to enough.

    Normally, they would draft a pitcher who would come in 3 or 4 years, which is more the timeline I see happening. If Mike Leake would have taken the normal timeline, 2010 would not have been a winning year. 2011 was terrible, so that would be the same timeline I'm suggesting now.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  19. Likes:

    Revering4Blue (01-21-2023)

  20. #42
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    35,036

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    I have often wondered how long a rebuilding should take, even if it mostly goes well. If you trade established players for some prospects in Year 1, and some more in Year 2, how long will it take to have the MLB team together to go for the pennant? I remember that even Cueto and Castillo took several years to get established after they got to the majors. It seems like a hopeful to 3 to 4 years is more likely 6 to 7, and nearly a Lost Decade. Rebuilding just doesn’t seem to add up to me.
    I look at the Brewers who sold off much of their old core in the mid 2010s and hardly lost a step. That's how you rebuild, not by razing it to the ground and then salting the soil with cheap players and fill-ins.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  21. Likes:

    mth123 (01-21-2023),NC Reds (01-21-2023),REDREAD (01-22-2023),The Operator (01-22-2023),Wonderful Monds (01-22-2023)

  22. #43
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Venice
    Posts
    33,292

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I look at the Brewers who sold off much of their old core in the mid 2010s and hardly lost a step. That's how you rebuild, not by razing it to the ground and then salting the soil with cheap players and fill-ins.
    The Reds are doing pretty much what the Brewers did, sold off their old players, all the players that would not be around by 2024. The big difference is that the Brewers have always had a deeper solid core, a deeper organization, so when they sold off the older players, they still had a decent team to build around.

    The Reds, thanks to poorly handling previous tear down, had almost nothing left after they traded away their older players. I think Krall’s plan to start building up that deeper core, which takes time, which means some tough years at the beginning.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769024

  23. #44
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    4,074

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    It feels pretty hopeless right now, but let’s play some games and see what happens.

    Mostly because, what the hell else are we going to do.
    this is way too close to "where ya gonna go?"

  24. #45
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Southwest Ohio
    Posts
    5,934

    Re: Arroyo: Reds 'Probably 4 or 5 Years Away' From Competing For Division Title

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    this is way too close to "where ya gonna go?"
    You’re probably right, but despite myself, I’m still looking forward to seeing pitchers and catchers report for spring training in a couple of three weeks.

    It doesn’t matter that the team stinks to high heaven. I have lived through some pretty bad teams over the last forty plus years, and I still look forward to Reds baseball. And I am going to enjoy watching the minor league teams as well. Frustrating or not, I still will be glued to all things Reds once players report to Arizona. I will probably be done with them by the All-Star break, but Spring Training fever is already in my system.
    Last edited by MikeS21; 01-22-2023 at 07:03 AM.
    “I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane

    “We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn

  25. Likes:

    757690 (01-22-2023),goreds2 (01-22-2023),Ron Madden (01-23-2023)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator